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Argument38 第1篇 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧!
------摘要------
作者:寄托家园作文版普通用户 共用时间:30分2秒 400 words
从2005年3月4日2时3分到2005年3月4日2时30分
------题目------
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
'An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.'
------正文------
The memo recommends a dramatic treatment to prevent colds so as to reduce absenteeism in schools and workplaces. To support this recommendation, the memo cites a study result in nearby East Meria and provides other evidence that daily use of Ichthaid is a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. Close scrutiny of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the recommendation.
First of all, the memo relies on what might be a false analogy between West Meria and nearby East Meria. Yet, the memo fails to offer any evidence that this is the case. In order for the latter to serve as a model that West Meria should emulate, the author must assume that all relevant circumstantces involving the business are essentially the same. However, this assumption is unwarranted. For example, perhaps in West Meria, the consumption of fish is also very high, but make little effect on preventing colds.
Secondly, the memo concludes based on a known correlation between high consumption of fish and less colds that the latter is attributable, at least partly, to the former. Yet, a correlation alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and-effect relationship. Absent evidence to support the conclusion, it is entirely possible that people in nearby East Meria visit the doctor less often because they exercise more often than people in other place, and do enjoy good health. If so, then the author's recommendation would amount to especially poor advice.
Last but not least, the recommendation assumes that daily use of Ichthaid would prevent colds by itself. Absent evidence to support this assumption, it is equally possible that daily use of Ichthaid would not suffice by itself. For that matter, people must like to use it daily without any objects. In short, unless the memo can show that the use of Ichthaid will be effectively implemented and received, I cannot accept the recommendation.
To sum up, the memo relies on several unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it unconvincing at it stands. To bolster the recommendation, the author must provide clearer evidence that the relevant circumstantces between West Meria and nearby East Meria are the same. To better evaluate the recommendation, I would need to know whether the high consumption of fish do result in less colds. And it would be useful to know whether the daily use of Ichthaid will be effectively implemented. |
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