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In this memo,the West Meria Public Health Council recommends taking the daily use of Ichthaid-a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil-as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To support this recommendation the memo cites a study report that people nearby East Meria where fish consumption is very high rarely visit the doctor for the treament of colds.The Council further argues that colds as the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work can be prevented by eating fish . I find this argument specious on several grounds.
First, the recommendation relies on the assumption that the very high fish consumption in nearby East Meria is attributed to the rare visiting times for the treatment of colds of its citizens.Yet, this assumption overlooks other possible reasons for the fewer visiting times. Perhaps the people prefer to buy some medicines from the drug store rather than visit the doctor in East Meria, or perhaps the people around East Meria just like to visit the doctor in other nearby cities such as West Meria, or perphaps East Meria’ citizens have eaten other food that containing some nutritional supplement which can prevent colds.Without considering and eliminating these and other possible alternative explanations for the amazed fewer times for visiting the doctor, the Council cannot convincingly conclude based on that people nearby East Meria visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds.
Secondly, even assuming the very high fish consumption in nearby East Meria is attributed to the rare visiting times for the treatment of colds of its citizens, it is nevertheless impossible to assess the Council’s broader contention that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Common sense tells me the very high fish comsumption and eating a substantial amount of fish can just be two different things.It is entirely possible, for example, that East Meria’s citizens use a lot of fish to produce a nutritional medicine or other products such as fish-can and then export to nearby places.In such cases,the fish consumption in nearby East Meria is also very high.If so, this fact would seriously weaken the argument that the residents eat a substantial amount of fish.以上两个攻击点重复,可以合并在一起, 其实这个argument还有一个因果逻辑错误,就是把cold和absenteeism联系在一起,这是没有必然联系的.
Finally, even assuming eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds, the Council cannot reasonably conclude that the daily use of Ichthaid, as a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil will promise to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces.It is entirely possible that due to colds is a most ordinary excuse for absences from school and work, people use it most frequently. Once it does not proved effective,people will seek other alternative reasons for absenteeism. Besides, the memo provides no evidence that people who actually eat a lot of fish in nearby East Meria seldom absent from school and work.Thus it is arbitrarily to conclude that the daily use of Ichthaid is a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.
呵呵 这一段你论证了另一个因果错误,但是我有一点意见不知道对不对,It is entirely possible that due to colds is a most ordinary excuse for absences from school and work, people use it most frequently. Once it does not proved effective,people will seek other alternative reasons for absenteeism.这辆句话好像对支持你的论证没有帮助吧,应该是指出absenteeism还有很多其他原因,而不是cold这一个唯一可能的原因.仅供参考
In sum, as it stands the argument is wholly unpersuasive.To bolster it the Council must show
eating a substantial amount of fish can effectively prevent colds-perhaps by way of reliable suevey.The memo must also provide clear evidence for without the excuse of colds, people who actually eat a lot of fish would reduce absences from school and work.To better assess the argument,it would be useful to know all the possible excuses for absenteeism.(564)
我的 也写了argument38 互拍 呵呵
issue 8 https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ;highlight=%2Bsssky
issue 41 https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ;highlight=%2Bsssky
issue 144 https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ;highlight=%2Bsssky
issue 159 https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ;highlight=%2Bsssky
argument 38 https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ;highlight=%2Bsssky
argument 137 https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ;highlight=%2Bsssky
argument 140 https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ;highlight=%2Bsssky |
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