argument147 G89,11日

liulin12369UID: 2112878

147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

The correlation of increasing sales of Whirlwind video games and the games produced based on a survey that the arguer trying to bear out is not as cogent as he/she assumes.ALthough the cause-and-effect analysis seems quite logical at the first glance, yet it hardly stands further scrutiny.

First of all, the survey cited in the argument here is too vague to be convincing. From the survey we cannot find the sample bear a common quality and thus likely doubt whether the respondents constitute a sufficient large sample so as to represent the overall game players. It is possible that the respondents are the boosters of the lifelike graphics games. Maybe their compuiters are quite up-to-date and they merely require a game to exhibite the superior of their computers. However, before ruling out the other players who don't prefer such games or whose computers' collocation cannot fit the high require for this game, the argument might amount to poor evidence.

Secondly, even if the survey is sound, and the players are interested in such kind of lifelike graphics, it is also doubtable that they prefer the whole content of this game. If the originity is out of season and the details of the characters are in a nasty look, moreover, the music is not attractive, players may eliminate this game from their horizon.

Thirdly, even given that the players will favor this new game and the assumption that they will pay much money to buy this game is still up in the air. If the fans of the this game are short of money, they may just read the magazines or view the information on the inernet instead of paying any money. Meanwhile, if most of they are students, the pressure of study may occupy their time and hardly remain any time and energy to start a game. Extremely, if the teachers or parents supervised them, they also cannot get real contact of any games. On the contrary, there is no evidence that they do not interest in other games and thus they may put their primary attention on the other game and cannot really involved in the new game. So we cannot safely assume that the consumers are sufficient.

However, even if market are of no problems, we cannot undertake the effectiveness of the advertising strategy and thus assure that the sale will incease sharply. No crediable evidence shows that 10 to 25 years old people are the main group to consume on the products and maybe the others should take into conderation. Meanwhile, there are other alternatives to weaken this assumption such as the national or global atmosphere of playing vedio games declines or another fresh and appealing new form of game catches the consumers eyes. In these cases, the sales of Whirlwind video games may be decline rather than increase.

In sum, the speaker cannot convince me that all the situaton will bring about a dramatical increase of the new games. To bolster it the speaker should show more evidence about the basical survey and the reliance of the deduction stem from it.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-11 at 12:56 ]

polymathUID: 179557

帮你顶

tuesday420UID: 202475

盖章-----tuesday420

liulin12369UID: 2112878

给点意见吧，打狗棒修炼中~~

Smile_IreneUID: 198388

The correlation of increasing sales of Whirlwind video games and the games produced based on a survey that the arguer trying to bear out is not as cogent as he/she assumes.ALthough the cause-and-effect analysis seems quite logical at the first glance, yet it hardly stands further scrutiny.

First of all, the survey cited in the argument here is too vague to be convincing. From the survey we cannot find the sample bear a common quality and thus likely doubt whether the respondents constitute a sufficient large sample so as to represent the overall game players. It is possible that the respondents are the boosters of the lifelike graphics games. Maybe their computers are quite up-to-date and they merely require a game to exhibit the superior of their computers. However, before ruling out the other players who don't prefer such games or whose computers' collocation cannot fit the high requirement for this game, the argument might amount to poor evidence.觉得改成before ruling out there are players who...怎么样？

Secondly, even if the survey is sound, and the players are interested in such kind of lifelike graphics, it is also doubtable that they prefer the whole content of this game（the content of the coming game completely). If the originality is out of season and the details of the characters are in a nasty look, moreover, the music is not attractive, players may eliminate this game from their horizon.

Thirdly, even given that the players will favor this new game and the assumption that they will pay much money to buy this game is still up in the air. If the fans of this game are short of money, they may just read the magazines or view the information on the inernet instead of paying any money. Meanwhile, if most of them are students, the pressure of study may occupy their time and hardly remain any time and energy to start a game. Extremely, if the teachers or parents supervised them, they also cannot get real contact of any games. On the contrary, there is no evidence that they do not interest in other games and thus they may put their primary attention on the other games and cannot really involved in the new game. So we cannot safely assume that the consumers are sufficient.

However, even if market are of no problems, we cannot undertake the effectiveness of the advertising strategy and thus assure that the sale will incease sharply. No crediable evidence shows that 10 to 25 years old people are the main group to consume on the products and maybe the others consumers should be taken into conderation. Meanwhile, there are other alternatives to weaken this assumption such as the national or global atmosphere of playing vedio games declines or another fresh and appealing new form of games catches the consumers' eyes. In these cases, the sales of Whirlwind video games may be decline rather than increase.

In sum, the speaker cannot convince me that all the situation will bring about a dramatical increase of the new games. To bolster it the speaker should show more evidence about the basic survey and the reliable deduction stems from it.

我得a刚开始，帮忙看看，指点一下:)
http://edu.gter.net/bbs/viewthre ... p;page=1#pid1720017

[ Last edited by Smile_Irene on 2005-8-11 at 17:18 ]