argument109大家帮帮我。。谢谢了。。

woshialexUID: 2177641

下个星期三考。。。。。大家帮帮我。。。现在我还有点写不完，上考场要是紧张那思路岂不全乱了。。。。

提纲 ：
1.错误类比。两个不一样的城市无法比较业的不出结论。就算得出了也不一定用于第三个城市。
2.都20年了，什么都变了。


WORDS: 445          TIME: 0:27:00          DATE: 2006-2-23

The argument is questionable in several facets. By comparing Pine City, which established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings twenty years ago, with Chestnut City, which has no laws to limit new building construction, the arguer concludes that the laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices based on the fact that both city experienced an increase in average housing prices. It seems reasonable at first glance. However, careful scrutiny of the argument reveals several problems as follow.

The arguer fails to take into account the differences among cities, thus the comparison between Pine City and Chestnut City is incomplete. The only similarity of the two cities is that they are the same size. However, this fact may have nothing to do with the housing prices. Common sense tells us that what affect the housing price largely depends on the city's general prosperous, population, and the housing market. Therefore, in the absence of information about the original condition of Pine City and Chestnut City, these two cities may can not comparable at all. Perhaps, the population of Chestnut City has doubled in the past twenty years. Consequently, the housing prices increased due the increased demand for house. While in Pine City, the general condition does not change significantly. As a result, the housing prices increased due to the laws which limit new construction. In addition, Maple City may be different from both Pine City and Chestnut City. Their experience might be not suit for it.

The arguer also ignores the changes during these twenty years. Even if we concede that the laws limiting new construction have negligible amount of influence on the housing prices in the past twenty years, it does not necessary mean that the same scenario will work in Maple City. Perhaps, the population in the last twenty years does not grow significantly. As a result, the demand for houses does not grow rapidly. It is possible that both Pine City and Chestnut City had an increase of the housing price due to the same reason that the general economic is booming. However, the situation may have changed. Perhaps, the demand for houses in Maple city is significantly increasing. As a result, the limitation on constructing new house may result in the shortage of supply. Thus when the demand exceeds supply, the housing prices will probably be influenced by the laws.

In conclusion, the argument above is not as convincing as it stands. The comparison between Pine city and Chestnut City is insufficient to conclude that laws limiting new construction have no effect on the housing prices. Besides, all cities are different, and what happened in the past twenty years may have changed.