Argument39 临考，倒数第四篇，求拍~~

@amy@UID: 209096

题目
Argument39 The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.

"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."

翻译：
去年报名参加Omni大学远程教学系统的学生人数上升了50％。同年，Omni用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降，很可能是因为远程教学通过互动电脑录像授课。比较而言，在过去三年中，Humana学院的报名人数下降了，而且用于房屋维护的费用上升。因此，为增加报名数量并解决Humana学院财政赤字问题，我们也应该开展并积极推广与Omni一样的远程教学系统。

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提纲
（1）错误的建立了远程教育学生人数增加和宿舍教室开支减少的因果关系。
（2）没有分析Humana College学生变少的原因，而是盲目的建议去效仿Omni University。
（3）即使发展远程教育，也不一定能够招到学生。
（4）发展远程教育不一定能解决财政问题，因为还要购买设备等等，比如电脑、摄像机、布网。

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字数：436 words
时间：35分钟
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正文
In this argument, the arguer suggests Humana College initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni University in order to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits, however, his suggestion suffers several flaws as discussed in the following.

First of all, the arguer fails to build the causality between the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni and the expenditures for dormitory and classroom space. The increase of students enrolling in long-distance degree programs does not means the decrease of other students. It is possible that the significant decrease in expenditures is the result of strengthening the management and reducing wastes. Moreover, even if the long-distance students can influence the number of other students, the effect is open to doubt since the arguer only provides the increase percent. It is likely that former students were 100, and last year such students were 150. So the influence to other students' number is very small.

Secondly, the arguer neglects the real reason for the decrease of enrollment at Humana College and for the increase of costs of maintaining building. It is very strange that students diminished while costs of maintaining building rose. It is totally possible that there were great wastes or corruptions in the process of maintaining buildings at Humana College.

Thirdly, the arguer wrongly makes an analogy that the long-distance degree programs also can increase enrollment at Humana College like at Omni. As is known to everyone, to choose a school, many conditions will be considered, such as the teaching level, the school's reputation, and the like. Consequently, even if such programs are very successful in Omni, it is not sure to success at Humana College. One possibility is that Humana College even cannot attract any student.

Last but not the least, granted that the programs can increase the enrollment, it is not certain to solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College. To promote such programs, the college has to purchase many equipment and services, such as computer, video, network support, and the like. All these equipment and services will spend lots of money, if no student is enrolled, they will even aggravate the budget deficits.

To sum up, the arguer is too cursory to make the suggestion lacking of deep analyses and depending on a false analogy. So to make his suggestion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into account, that is, to survey the genuine reason for the decreasing enrollment and the high maintain costs, and to prove the long-distance degree programs do can help to solve the problems.

[ 本帖最后由 @amy@ 于 2006-2-24 11:52 编辑 ]

jingjingtousUID: 2164820

seat taken！