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The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.
"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign." :D:D
The argument is short of convincing power. The arguer provides an example of country of Bellegea to support his/her assertion, which is might appear somewhat reasonable at first glance, but further reflection reveals that it is based on some dubious assumption. The arguer presumes that since the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, thus the number of tourist mush also increase dramatically. That is not always the case. These visitors may not come to Bellegea because of the ecotourism, perhaps they come to visit the museums in Bellegea; or perhaps Bellegea held some big sport game like "world cup", stand on these situations, the ecotourism in Bellegea did not serve to attract foreign visitors as the arguer presumed. What is more, one can not contribute the increase of income to the ecotourism in Bellegea without consider and rule out other possible factors: such as booming in agriculture, or development in industry, or the breakthrough in the technology. Any of these scenarios, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the argument's conclusion that ecotourism bring much benefits and can also explain why the increasing of visitors in the airport: once the country is in the high speed of developing, the communication with foreign countries is unavoidable. Even if one assume the ecotourism is the main factor which cause these two changes, there is no information given by arguer to demonstrate that advertisement began last year lead to the blossom of tourism, one possible alternative is the tourism in Bellegea is keeping developing much earlier before last year and the advertisement make little contribution to the development. To sum up, failing in consider all these possibilities, the arguer make a hasty conclusion about the Bellegea.
In the second place, even if we concede account Bellegea's progress for their ecotourism, it is slapdash for the arguer to suggest promote ecotourism in his/her country too. Does Paraterra have beautiful, natural environment suitable for the ecotourism? Does Paraterra have necessary equipment, technology and experience to run ecotourism well, at the same time, prevent the natural environment from threaten by the mass of people? Can Paraterra government provide enough financial support? Can Paraterra provide necessary fundamental establishment? Can their airport work smoothly when face the circumstance of doubled number of foreign visitors? The arguer should answer these questions, and provide more persuasive evidence to prove that to promote ecotourism is available and profitable in Paraterra.
Last but not the least, even if we assume it is good project to promote ecotourism in Paraterra, to hire current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office is not a definitely wise idea. There is no evidence to show the advisement in Bellegea helps the progress of the tourism. Even if the advertisement is a successful one, no information show the success is contributed to the director. What is more important, even the director work excellent in Bellegea does not mean he/she will do well in Paraterra since he/she is not a native any more.
All in all, the arguer neglects lots of other alternatives which make the argument short of the convincing power. If arguer wants to make the argument more persuasive, more information should be provided, meanwhile questions above should be answered clearly. |
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