argument42 第1次全文 别客气

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argument42: ecotourism for Paraterra

[题目]
The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.

"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."

[题目翻译]
临近城市Bellegea的政府为促进其落后的经济，去年开展了一项对生态旅游的广告推广。今年到达Bellegea主要机场的外国游客数量翻了一番，人均收入增加了10％。为增加Paraterra居民的收入并保护我们有限国土的天然环境，我们也应该推广生态旅游。为保证我们广告策略的成功，我们应该雇佣Bellegea现任国家旅游局的主任来担任广告的顾问。

[提纲]
1-        B国生态旅游的广告推广不一定成功，游客量和人均收入的增加则无从归功于此
2-        就算推广成功，游客量和人均收入的增加也不一定由它所导致
a-  游客量增加可能是由于艺术节活科技展的吸引；乘飞机的游客并不能代表所有游客，游客总量仍可能减少
b-  人均收入增加可能是由于工业发展、农业丰收等，而与生态旅游的推广无关
3-  就算旅游推广导致B国经济增长，在B国可行的措施并不一定适用与P国，因为旅游业基于本国的资源和特色
4-  雇佣B国主任作顾问同样没有根据，此主任不一定负责B国生态旅游，也不一定了解P国特色现状，另外两国可能存在旅游竞争，此人不一定能真正帮助P国。

[正文]
The economic minister proposed that Paraterra should take the same action of advertising campaign to promote ecotourism strengthen its economy and hire the current director of Bellegea's NTO as a consultant for the campaign by citing the evidence that this measure was just adopted in the near by country of Bellegea. To support his claim, the minister cites the fact about increasing of the number of foreign visitors and per capita income in Bellegea. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however reveals that none of them lend credible support to the author’s assumptions.

A threshold assumption upon which this recommendation relies is that the AD campaign in Bellegea successfully promoted its ecotourism in the first place. But the minister fails to substantiate this crucial problem. If Bellegea began an AD campaign last year but the ecotourism had not receive any positive effect, then any change in Bellegea’s economy cannot be attribute to it. Accordingly, the minister cannot draw any firm conclusion about similar measure would take in Paraterra.

Even assuming that the campaign does succeed in Bellegea, the recommendation relies on the addition assumption that this course of action was responsible for the case that the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea’s main airport doubled. However, it is entirely possible that the vast majority of visitors came to Bellegea for some art festivals or high-tech exhibitions rather than ecotourism. Besides, the visitors who took plane can seldom typify all the foreign tourists. Perhaps a large percentage of them chose traveling by landway or waterway. For that matter, perhaps while the number of aero-travelers is increasing the total amount of tourists might decrease, and on the contrary it contradict with the author’s first assumption that the campaign is effective.

Nor does the fact that per capita income in Bellegea increased by 10% lend significant support to the author’s claim. Without given any of essential information, the author cannot convince me that any causal relationship exists between the campaign and increasing income of Bellegea’s population. It is equally possible that the development of industry or the good harvest of agriculture or even the inflation may enlarge the amount of income.

Moreover, even granted that the rising economy were attributed to the AD campaign which promoted the ecotourism in Bellegea, the minister fails to consider possible dissimilarities between Bellegea and Paraterra that might bring about a different result for Paraterra. As we known, the ecotourism should base on the own nature environment and landscape resources of a country and that the experience and measures adaptable in Bellegea may not suit for Paraterra. For instance, Paraterra might be famous of its antiquities such as architecture and garden, and in which case foreign visitors would find the advertisement for ecotourism in Paraterra an uncomfortable blague or even cajole.

Finally, the minister come to the conclusion that they should hire the current director of Bellegea's NTO as a consultant for the campaign without considering following questions: whether the director is in charge of the ecotourism department; whether he is familiar with the feature and actuality of Paraterra; whether there is a competitive relationship between the two countries and whether he could really help Paraterra to carry out the same measure.

In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it the author must provide clear evidence- perhaps by way of survey or study- that the AD campaign to promote ecotourism, and not other factors, strengthened the economy of Bellegea. The minister must also provide evidence that other factors would ensure the campaign carried out in the two countries are otherwise essentially the same.