Argument73 [黄金十二宫]第八次作业

bssUID: 2163624

TOPIC: ARGUMENT73 - The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."


1.论据不能说明leasing将会有大的增长。并且忽略的2手市场。
2. leasing不一定比selling更有利润。

Word: 451, Time 60+

真正写的时间可能就1小时吧，但是考虑的时间要远远多于1小时，之前只想到一个批驳对象。另外一个是在看了渡渡的提纲后才坚定下来的，由于渡渡的要求，所以就写两条吧。这篇文章真的好难啊。好多人都脱队了，下面的日子只有咬牙坚持了。祝大家期末考试顺利。（19号近入考试周）

The writer in this argument is an manager of a car dealership claiming that their company should change the focus of their business from selling cars to leasing them. As evidence, the writer states that long-term car leasing which became in Mohilia ten years ago, has steadily risen in popularity. The writer further claims that the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars; and if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. This argument is full of weaknesses that should leave us unconvinced.

The first and most glaring error in logic lies in the fact : the average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six, and the number of people leasing new cars are more than the number buying new car, so if the new cars if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. There are no other information mentioned in this argument, such as the number of people buying the old cars or the number leasing old cars. It is possible that people in the Mohilia is poor, most of the using cars are old. As the matter of fact, the writer in this argument just mentions information about leasing new cars and buying new cars, however, the market about old cars is a big market, so without more information or direct evidence given, we can accept the saying of the writer.

Moreover, the writer maintains that we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them. The result come from the evidence that the most of the drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. In fact, the evidence given to us was based on an assumption. In fact, the basement of the assumption can not be proved. So, we can not accept this conclusion, without supported by evidence which leasing cars given the more money than selling cars. Further more, although the assumption is right, there is also no evidence to show that when our company changed idea the profits will increase. Because the writer does not address these other evidences  leasing cars increased company’s profits, the argument here also fails to convince.   

In summary, the writer’s argument ultimately fails because there is no basis in fact for his or her conclusion. To make the argument stronger and more believable, the editor should present direct evidence that we should pay our attention on leasing cars. And the writer must also prove that leasing cars can bring their more benefit than selling cars.

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附件

asong2004UID: 2178054

Argument73 [黄金十二宫]第八次作业

TOPIC: ARGUMENT73 - The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."


1.论据不能说明leasing将会有大的增长。并且忽略的2手市场。
2. leasing不一定比selling更有利润。
Word: 451, Time 60+

真正写的时间可能就1小时吧，但是考虑的时间要远远多于1小时，之前只想到一个批驳对象。另外一个是在看了渡渡的提纲后才坚定下来的，由于渡渡的要求，所以就写两条吧。这篇文章真的好难啊。好多人都脱队了，下面的日子只有咬牙坚持了。祝大家期末考试顺利。（19号近入考试周）

The writer in this argument is an manager of a car dealership claiming that their company should change the focus of their business from selling cars to leasing them. As evidence, the writer states that long-term car leasing which became？？？ in Mohilia ten years ago, has steadily risen in popularity. The writer further claims that the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars; and if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. This argument is full of weaknesses that should leave us unconvinced.（说实话，这样的句子写了就是浪费时间吧，好多精华文章都是概括题目的结论和假设就行了）

The first and most glaring error in logic lies in the fact : the average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six, and the number of people leasing new cars are more than the number buying new car, so if the new cars if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. There are no other information mentioned in this argument, such as the number of people buying the old cars or the number （不知道这种省略合不合适）leasing old cars. It is possible that people in the Mohilia is poor, most of the using cars are old. As the matter of fact, the writer in this argument just mentions information about leasing new cars and buying new cars, however, the market about old cars is a big market, so without more information or direct evidence given, we can accept the saying of the writer.

Moreover, the writer maintains that we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them. The result come from the evidence that the most of the drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. In fact, the evidence given to us was based on an assumption. In fact,（两个in fact） the basement of the assumption can not be proved.（两句合起来based on an ***assumption） So, we can not accept this conclusion, without supported by evidence which leasing cars given the more money than selling cars. Further more, although the assumption is right, there is also no evidence to show that when our company changed idea the profits will increase. Because the writer does not address these other evidences  leasing cars increased company’s profits, the argument here also fails to convince.   

In summary, the writer’s argument ultimately fails because there is no basis in fact for his or her conclusion. To make the argument stronger and more believable, the editor should present direct evidence that we should pay our attention on leasing cars. And the writer must also prove that leasing cars can bring their more benefit than selling cars.


逻辑错误：
1、驳假设--即使今年租新车人数超过买新车的，也不一定会出现“租的车占主导的地位”。
① 统计方式值得怀疑：比如一些租车人可能每年都要重新租新车，所以他们被累计计算了，而购买车的这种情况应该比较少见。
② 统计对象不全面：未考虑二手车市场，也许开二手车的在当地占主流呢。
③ 租了车就不会退租吗？虽然租车次数多，但实际上车子并不多，比如一辆车一年中被租了12次。
2、驳结论--结论基于的假设不成立！即使成立也面临如下的问题：
① 公司目前经营状况怎样？会不会：“尽管每年租新车人数大于买新车人数，但该公司大部分利润仍然来自卖新车，并且也保持着持续增长”？
② 当地的租赁市场是否已经饱和，竞争已很激烈，贸然进入太危险；
③ 过去几年租赁市场火爆，未必以后一直如此。也许过一、两年后大家都不满足于开租赁车了，都想买新车了，那可是一个潜在的巨大客户源阿！

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