Argument170

chengnicoleUID: 2216897

TOPIC: ARGUMENT170 - For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
WORDS: 451          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-7-11

The arguer draws a conclusion that the Gulf Coast (GC) oyster producers will get greater profits because the consumer would pay the same price for GC oysters as for northeastern Atlantic Coast (AC) oysters after the new process are devised to kill the bacteria in GC oysters. The argument remains unconvincing for the serious fallacies presented below.

First of all, the arguer commits a “after this, so because of this” fallacy. We cannot hastily conclude that it is because the bacteria found in a few raw GC since consumers began to pay twice as much for AC oysters as for GC oysters after the finding. We are not advised about whether consumers would eat the oyster uncooked or not. If they cooked the oysters before eating, the bacteria might be killed by high cooking temperature so that it is safe to eat. There might be other reasons that could keep the high price of AC oysters, such as better taste, more meat, more juicy, or from non-polluted area, and so on.

Secondly, no evidence can verify that consumers will pay more for GC oysters even after aware of the safety. The arguer did not mention any concern from consumers on the bacteria issue of GC oysters, which means we cannot be sure that more confidence on safety would provide a possibility for us to increase the price. Or, if consumers do concern about the harmful bacteria seriously, they will not easily change their perception and restore their confidence on GC oysters in a short time. So, it is unlikely for them to buy the suspicious “unhealthy” oysters with twice the price.

Thirdly, even though the price of GC oysters could be raised to twice as before, more profits for producers will not be 100 percent guaranteed. Common sense tells us that it is possible that when the price gets higher, the sales volume becomes lower. The producers might not earn more money by raising the price. On the contrary, the current sales of GC oysters might be very good, though with a relative lower price, which can ensure high margin for the producers. Moreover, profits relate to multiple factors including cost control, cash flow, sales promotion, manpower arrangement, and so forth. What’s more, the beneficiary of profits increase might not be the oyster producers, instead of wholesalers, distributors and retailers. Without thorough considerations, any assertion will not be groundless.

All in all, the argument is full of fallacies that weakened the credibility of it. To further complete the analysis, more comprehensive study on the situations are needed to find out if the GC oysters are less competitive in the market and to develop the solutions to solve the problem if necessary.

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