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发表于 2006-7-14 22:12:57
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Syllabus:
.
1.新技术不一定能省电,当矿石中铜的含量相等时不能判断新技术还是旧技术的用电量.
2.首先,即使在同含量相同的情况下,新技术能否被广泛应用也不确定.缺少相关材料,如果技术成本高,不能被广泛应用,推广困难,那么整个行业的用电也不会下降.其次新技术是否使用也不清楚,新技术在铜的含量高的矿石提炼中表现良好,但是如果现在铜的普遍含量比较低了?就仍然不得不用旧方法.如果铜的总量增加,即便采用新技术,电能的消耗也会增加.
3.结论:论者没有仔细了解新技术的应用情况,对于该行业的生产也不熟悉,盲目乐观估计。
In this arguments, the arguer predicts that the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry will decline significantly on the observation that new copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity that the older method to process the same amount of raw ore. At first glance, it seems reasonable, on meticulous reflection, however, some intolerant fallacies make the argument incredible.
To begin with, the arguer presumes that the new technology will use up less electric energy undoubtedly when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. To support his presumption, the arguer provides the fact that electricity is indeed saved when using nascent process, with low copper containment in the ore, which is unconvincing. On one hand, we should make sure of the equivalent amount of copper before comparison. If the proportion of copper in ore is equivalent, we cannot make out whether the new or the old technology is less used. On the other hand, the amount of electricity will be affected by the total amount of ore used. The argument is in lack of relevant providences.
Even if granted that the new technology will lead saving, we can not ensure that this technology will be applied extensively. It is fairy possible that the high cost of the technology will limit its application. Moreover, the popularization will be difficult in some degree, if only several factories adopt this way, which will not be representative to indicate the decline of electricity of the whole industry. Furthermore, knowing the new technology can play well when the proportion is high, however, if the universal proportion of copper provided today is low, I am afraid that we have to go back to the old way. Besides, it is also likely that the total amount of electricity will rise, after adopt new technology, if the total amount of copper goes up.
To sum up, the arguer is blind to make his conclusion without acquainting how will be the new technology applied and the condition of this industry. |
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