argument65 加州阳光作业 欢迎互拍

riverwUID: 2199459

65. The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

1. 新店的销售情况未必能代表全国范围内的情况。
2. 调查：(1)样本不具有代表性（订阅该杂志的人，而不是普通老百姓）；(2)调查的结果不能说明有更多的人选择国产奶酪。
3. 停止进口奶酪增加国产奶酪的举措未必能使公司获得更多利润：(1)国产奶酪的利润率可能比进口奶酪低；(2)不一定所有的国产奶酪都能比进口奶酪好买。

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this argument the arguer concludes that the cheese company should stop stocking many varieties of imported cheese and focus their inventory on domestic cheeses to improve profits. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites the evidences as follows: (1) The five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheeses; (2) A survey conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. This argument appears to be somewhat logical, however, a careful examination would reveal that it actually suffers from several critical flaws.

In the first place, the fact that five domestic cheeses are most popular in the newest store does not lend any strong support to the conclusion. The sales situation in one store might not be representative of the sales all around the nation. It is entirely possible that this new store is located in an area where the people have certain food tradition to prefer the tastes of domestic cheeses, or the imported cheeses might be much more expensive than domestic cheeses and people there are more likely to choose the cheaper ones to save money, whereas in other cities the consumers do not have such constraints to select their favorites. Consequently, it is unwise to adopt any action as the arguer concludes unless we are provided with useful information that can explain the sales situation among the whole nation is similar to this new store.

In the second place, the effectiveness of the survey quoted in the memo is quite questionable since it is problematic in two aspects. First, the sample of the survey is a specific group of people whose interests in cheeses might be heavily affected by the style of the magazine or certain famous gourmet hence are probably not consistent with the preference of the majority of cheese consumers. Second, the arguer provides no information about what percentage of the magazine subscribers are currently interested in domestic cheeses. It is true that more subscribers like domestic cheeses than before, however, it is equally possible that the number of those who are currently interested in domestic cheeses is only a small proportion of all the subscribers. In other words, the majority of the subscribers still like to eat imported cheeses. Before above two aspects are carefully considered and related information are provided, the survey is ineffective to support the arguer's conclusion.

Last but not least, the arguer unreasonably assumes that stopping the inventory of imported cheeses and increasing the stocking of domestic cheeses will surely lead to the increase of profits, which is not necessarily the case. Granted that some domestic cheeses indeed sell better than the imported products all around the nation, however, they might be much cheaper than those imported ones so that the increased sales can not bring profits as many as to exceed the imported cheeses can do. Furthermore, the company still needs to study the market and find out what kind of domestic cheeses would sell as well as expected before any blind action has been taken to largely increase all the domestic cheeses.

In summary, this argument is rather unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the arguer would have to explain the sales situation in nation-wide cheese market is similar to the newest branch store, and provide clear information concerning the survey as discussed above to convince us that domestic cheeses has become the preference of the majority of all the common consumers. Also, the company still needs further study to find out what kind of domestic cheeses can bring not only the sales increase but also the profits expansion.