Argument53

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Argument53

Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin—a hormone known to affect some brain functions—would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children—now teenagers—who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

In this argument, the arguer concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth result shyness during infancy and shyness continues into later life. To support the statement, the arguer points out that the infants who showed mild distress in unfamiliar stimuli were likely been conceived in a exact time that the mother's melatonin increasing. In addition, the arguer draw a conclusion that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness remains into later life. This assumption suffers from several critical fallacies.

In the first place, the arguer fails to establish a strong causal relationship between the infants' behavior of stimuli and the production of melatonin at the time of conceived in the early autumn. Granted that the melatonin would make some infection on the infants' brain, however it does not means that the melatonin must lead to the result of shyness. There is the possibility that the behavior of stimuli is the based instinct of a baby, but not the special observation. Or even if the stimuli was caused by some production of body, no evidence is given to prove that the substain is the melatonin. With out ruling out all other such factors it is unfair to conclude that the melatonin is the reason of the infants' shyness.

In the second place, the arguer relies on the assumption that the shyness which caused by the level of melatonin will last into later life is attributable to the survey which indicated that the young people who were researched think themselves as shy. Yet this assumption was overlooks other possible reasons for the growth of a child. Perhaps the family atmosphere and the parents' temperature will effects on character of the children .Or perhaps the native temperature of a human being will result the child's character in some extent. Without considering and eliminating these and other possible alternative explanations, the arguer cannot convincingly conclude that the level of melatonin will take effect on one person's future life.

In the last place, the 25 infants is not suffice evidence in the survey, maybe most of the infants or a large portion of infants failed to show the same symptom. Moreover, with the development of science and technology, the result of the research before 13 years may change a lot.

In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before we accept the conclusion, the arguer must present more facts that the relationship between the level of melatonin and the stimuli of the infants>and that the suffice evidence on the relationship between level of melatonin and the infants' future life. To solidify the argument, the arguer would have to produce more information concerning the quality of the survey, and the development of researching method.