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发表于 2006-7-16 12:06:46
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Argument 38:
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
In this newsletter excerpt of the West Meria Public Health Council (WMPHC), the speaker concludes that the mass of West Meria should take a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, namely Ichthaid, to prevent cold, which can be the most significant cause of absenteeism in schools and workplaces. To support this conclusion, the speaker cites three facts: (1) in East Meria, where fish consumption is high, people rarely visit the doctor for the treatment of colds; (2) cold is the most frequent excuse given for the absences from school and work, thus it's the main cause of absenteeism; (3) derived from fish oil, Ichthaid will certainly prevent cold. However, a close scrutiny reveals that none of them lend credible support to the recommendation.
First, the major problem with this argument is the hasty generation that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. To support this conclusion, the speaker cites that in East Meria, whose fish consumption is high, people seldom see a doctor for treatment of colds. Letting alone a potential improper analogy between East and West Meria, the cause-and-effect relationship itself seems unconvincing and questionable. The high fish consumption in East Meria may simply coincide with the infrequency of visiting a doctor for colds. Some factors other than high fish consumption can also lead to this situation. For example, the climate in East Meria may be not as changeable as it in West Meria and the people in East Meria may be gifted with a solid constitution. Besides, the infrequency of visiting a doctor for colds is by no means equal to the low possibility of catching a cold in East Meria residents. Either a neglect of the seriousness of colds or a distrust of public sanitation system can result in residents' reluctance to visit a doctor.
Secondly, the authenticity that the main cause of absenteeism in West Meria is cold remains unproven. Admittedly, catching a cold is the most frequently given excuse. Nevertheless, the statistic result can not guarantee all the absentees are telling the truth. A slothful employee or one who has overslept may also allege he or she has caught a cold and would like a day off, because this excuse is considerably common and not risky. If such situation exists (actually, it's inevitable), the credibility of this recommendation will be challenged.
Last but not the least, even granted that eating fish can prevent colds, we cannot ensure that daily use of Ichthaid would serve the same purpose. As the extract of fish oil, Ichthaid is unnecessarily capable of prevent people from catching cold. The process of extraction may have altered the chemical composition and structure of the material which has positive effects. And it's possible that the material mentioned above is generated during the cooking of fish. Anyway, unless the speaker can provide more information about clinical drug trial of Ichthaid, we cannot stop suspecting that the recommendation is simply driven by commercial interests.
In sum, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. To make a sound recommedation, the speaker in WMPHC still need to ascribe the low possibily of catching cold in East Meria to a more intrinsic reason rather than a superficial one; to make a more reliable survey of the cause of absenteeism in West Meria, on which the recommendation bases; and to provide some more detailed information to prove that Ichthaid do prevent people from catching cold, such as authorized clinical drug trial reports from a hospital.
[ 本帖最后由 squallteo 于 2006-7-16 12:08 编辑 ] |
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