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结论:出生前melatonin的增加导致婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段。
论据:1 研究了一组婴儿容易羞涩 这组婴儿是随机抽的吗?如果都是身体瘦弱的?
2 这些婴儿更可能在早秋怀孕。
3 早秋母亲分泌m增加 同时发生就一定有因果关系? 未排除其他因素
4 这些儿童如今十几岁有一半以上认为自己害羞。 后天环境因素没有排除
TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
In this argument, the author cites a study correlating a group of 25 infants who showed mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. The author also cites a research result that a hormone called melatonin which can affect some brain functions increases in early autumn. While most infants of the 25 were conceived at this time, the author concludes that melatonin cause the shyness. The follow-up study also supports this conclusion. But this argument suffers from a series of flaws, which render it unpersuasive as it stands.
To begin with, the author provides no evidence that the study held thirteen years ago was reliable. As a scientific survey, the sample must be sufficient in size and representative of the overall infants at that time. The number of the sample is a little small and the author does not mention whether these infants are found at random. Perhaps most infants were not very healthy or were too sensitive, and it's not strange to have such a result.
Moreover even though the sample is proper, only mild distress can not reflect one's shyness. In fact, for some normal adults, when taste some unusual odor or hear a tape recording of an unknown voice they may feel nervous saying nothing of new-born babies. The researcher could choose some other standards which evaluate infants' characters better.
Even assuming that the result of the study is reliable, a direct causality between the shyness of infants and the production of melatonin is not proved evidently. Firstly, two things which happen at the same time are not necessarily cause and effect. Lacking evidence that the melatonin causes the shyness, the author cannot justifiably assert the hormone's function. Second, the author has not pointed out clearly whether the hormone affects mothers' brain or infants'. If melatonin only influences the producer, thus there is no much relation between the infants' shyness and melatonin.
In addition, there is a possibility that some other unknown hormone leads to the shyness. The argument overlooks this. They should build some other groups compared to this control one and substantiate no other hormone has this effect. Without considering and ruling out this probability, the author cannot confidently conclude that melatonin is the reason.
Finally, the author mentions their follow-up study. More than half of the samples identified themselves as shy. One problem with this is the conclusion comes from the subjective attitudes. As we all know, scientific should be objective. Those who consider they are shy may not really have shyness if observed by experts. The teenagers' subjective thoughts can not be rewarded as evidences. On the other hand, the surroundings where the children grew up in and the education backgrounds of them may be quite different. Since people's sensibility is influenced by extra conditions seriously, it is very likely that their shyness results in postnatal factors. Absent accounting for other factors, it would be hasty to implement the verdict.
In sum, the author's argument is specious. To bolster it, he or she must assure the sample is sufficient in size and the infants can represent the overall. And the presupposition of melatonin's function should be understood fully first, then other feasibilities should be excluded. Finally, the follow-up study must observe the children who live in same or similar environment and more information of this survey are needed. |
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