Argument117 [Smile A]第六次作业

xinxinwUID: 2144273

TOPIC: ARGUMENT117
- The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
WORDS: 64          TIME: 0:03:25          DATE: 2006-7-17

Outline:
1. The Sample size is not provided and there is no sign of random sampling, so we can not judge if the result of the survey is representative.
2. More people work at home does not necessarily indicate the increase of needs for home office supply.
3. No comparison among profits of different departments upon which can we draw the conclusion is mentioned.
4. What kinds of office supplies are needed?




The arguer cites the result of a recent survey that people are required to take more work home with them from the workplace to raise the recommendation that Valy-Mart should increase stock of home office supplies. The argument seems reasonable at the first sight, but if we examine it carefully, we would find that the author commits several logical fallacies in reaching the conclusion, and the suggestion may result in false investment of the company.

The main defect of the argument lies in the survey. Only the proportion of the respondents who claims to have to work home a lot is provided in the argument. The total number of the respondents, however, from which we could judge whether the respondents are representative, is missing. Moreover, there is no sigh of random sampling based on information provided. Without the detailed information of the survey, we can not be convinced that the result of the survey can represent general condition of the workers and whether the arguer's suggestion should be applied.

Furthermore, even the actual situation, by any chance, is the same as the survey shows, we see no necessity to increase the stock of home office machines and office supplies. It is entirely possible that the needs for home office machines would not ascend soon for the storage of these facilities is enough at home. Or the stock of office supplies in Valu-Mart is already very large because the sales have been running low. Without ruling out the possibilities I list above, the arguer's advice to increase stock of office supplies would be untenable.

Before I come to my final conclusion, I would like to point out that the office-supply department does not necessarily make up the most profitable component of the stores. For one thing, the sales volume of the office supplies may not increase significantly basing on discussion above. For another thing, the cost to manage the extra stock might overpass the increasing revenue of the department. What is more, the author fails to provide any comparison of profit among different departments of the stores. Thus, the author's expectation that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of the store is ungrounded.

In conclusion, the author's claims lacks credulity because he only provides incomplete information of the survey and there is no substantiated data supporting the conclusion. To strengthen the argument, more detailed data about the survey are needed to describe the general situation. Also, the arguer has to rule out all the possibilities and factors affecting the profit of the department.


加油阿

猫猫寿司UID: 2219543

TOPIC: ARGUMENT117
- The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
WORDS: 64          TIME: 0:03:25          DATE: 2006-7-17

Outline:
1. The Sample size is not provided and there is no sign of random sampling, so we can not judge if the result of the survey is representative.
2. More people work at home does not necessarily indicate the increase of needs for home office supply.
3. No comparison among profits of different departments upon which can we draw the conclusion is mentioned.
4. What kinds of office supplies are needed?


我是倒着写的，而且比你多一条：１即使需求上涨也不代表此公司利润上涨，因为人家不见得买他的

The arguer cites the result of a recent survey that people are required to take more work home with them from the workplace to raise the recommendation that Valy-Mart should increase stock of home office supplies. The argument seems reasonable at the first sight, but if we examine it carefully, we would find that the author commits several logical fallacies in reaching the conclusion, and the suggestion may result in false investment of the company.不要把他的ｃｏｎｃｌｕｓｉｏｎ提出来么？

The main defect of the argument lies in the survey. Only the proportion of the respondents who claims to have to work home a lot is provided in the argument. The total number of the respondents, however, from which we could judge whether the respondents are representative, is missing. Moreover, there is no sigh of random sampling based on information provided. Without the detailed information of the survey, we can not be convinced that the result of the survey can represent general condition of the workers and whether the arguer's suggestion should be applied.这个是最主要问题阿，乖乖～我觉得都是结论是呢

Furthermore, even the actual situation, by any chance, is the same as the survey shows, we see no necessity to increase the stock of home office machines and office supplies. It is entirely possible that the needs for home office machines would not ascend soon for the storage of these facilities is enough at home. Or the stock of office supplies in Valu-Mart is already very large because the sales have been running low. Without ruling out the possibilities I list above, the arguer's advice to increase stock of office supplies would be untenable.

Before I come to my final conclusion, I would like to point out that the office-supply department does not necessarily make up the most profitable component of the stores. For one thing, the sales volume of the office supplies may not increase significantly basing on discussion above. For another thing, the cost to manage the extra stock might overpass the increasing revenue of the department. What is more, the author fails to provide any comparison of profit among different departments of the stores. Thus, the author's expectation that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of the store is ungrounded.恩，这段里面我加上了办公用品部门不一定挣钱

In conclusion, the author's claims lacks credulity because he only provides incomplete information of the survey and there is no substantiated data supporting the conclusion. To strengthen the argument, more detailed data about the survey are needed to describe the general situation. Also, the arguer has to rule out all the possibilities and factors affecting the profit of the department.

:)哈哈阅毕