argument47 火山那个 第一篇，请大家指教

猫猫劳工UID: 2235392

47Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.


Argument 47
    The argument concludes that the cooling happened in the mid-sixth century is caused by a volcanic eruption. To support this conclusion, the argument points out that the only evidence could be found are some Asian historical records of a loud boom that would be consistent with that volcanic eruption. However, the argument relies on a number of doubtful assumptions and therefore is unconvincing.
First of all, although there are no obvious records and evidences concerning about the large meteorite collision, which is an alternative possibility of the cause of the earth’s sudden cool down, we can not easily deny this causation’s likelihood. It is possible that the meteorite collision happened without any human witnesses. For example, it might happen in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, or in the arctic area, where almost no human lived there. Another possibility is that there could be some record about the collision, but lost in the history as the world has fluctuated dramatically. Such as warfare and nature catastrophe, these fluxes occurred in history could demolish any valuable evidences exist.
Secondly, the records of that loud boom failed to prove that the sound they record is generated by the volcanic eruption. The sound can be caused by tsunami and earthquake and such violent natural phenomena. There are no strong indications showing that the boom sound and the eruption are causal related. Even if the sound did caused by the eruption, the arguer still failed to prove that it is this eruption that caused the sudden cooling.
Thirdly, it is true that few historical records survived from that time, we might have other possibilities which cause the cooling than the merely two found.
In summery, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. The only data available are too vague to make such conclusion. To strengthen it the argument must find more evidence to demonstrate     that there was a big collision or a huge eruption happened in the mid-sixth century, and then prove either the meteorite collision or the volcanic eruption is the exact cause of the earth’s sudden cooling.

有拍必回

猫猫寿司UID: 2219543

47Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.


Argument 47
    The argument concludes that the cooling happened in the mid-sixth century is caused by a volcanic eruption. To support this conclusion, the argument points out that the only evidence could be found are some Asian historical records of a loud boom that would be consistent with that volcanic eruption. However, the argument relies on a number of doubtful assumptions and therefore is unconvincing.开头概括不全面，原文还有排除陨石撞击这一证据
First of all, although there are no obvious records and evidences concerning about the large meteorite collision, which is an alternative possibility of the cause of the earth’s sudden cool down, we can not easily改成simply deny this causation’s likelihood. It is possible that the meteorite collision happened without any human witnesses. For example, it might happen in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, or in the arctic area, where almost no human lived there.有了where不要there不然是两个状语 Another possibility is that there could be some record about the collision, but lost in the history as the world has fluctuated用词不准确，波动指价格数字等改成experienced dramatic vicissitudes经历变迁 dramatically. Such as warfare and nature catastrophe, these fluxes occurred in history could demolish any valuable evidences exist.缺少总结句，如：Before ruling out all these possibilities I stated above, it is hard to exclude the occurrence of a collision.
Secondly, the records of that loud boom failed通篇时态要一致，用一般现在时比较好 to prove that the sound they record这个应该是过去时 is generated by the volcanic eruption. The sound can be caused by tsunami and earthquake and such violent natural phenomena. There are no strong indications showing that the boom sound and the eruption are causal 修饰形容词热related应该用副词causally related. Even if the sound did 被动语态缺少be动词caused by the eruption, the arguer still failed to prove that it is this eruption that caused the sudden cooling. 这句话逻辑同原文给出的不符，原文逻辑是eruption使得sun dimming然后sun dimming使得变冷，而且你说没法证明要说为什么没法证明，一句话是不够的。
Thirdly, it is true that few historical records survived from that time, we might have other possibilities which cause the cooling than the merely two found. 这段论述得很不完全很不好，三段不平衡。你省去了作者在推理过程中的一个重要环节：太阳光被遮住了dimming sun。作者先犯下了ungrounded assumption,无据假设变冷是由于太阳被遮住而还有很多其它可能：地球中某种化学物质的释放，地球离太阳远近变化等等；并且原文在寻求太阳变暗的原因时犯下的逻辑错误叫做false dilemma，也就是非此即彼的错误判断，那就是只给出两个选择，不是火山爆发就是陨石撞地球，这也是不对的，太阳变暗可能是太阳自身的变化。
In summery, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. The only data哪个only data，人家明明不止一个 available are too vague通篇论述中你并没有提到模糊数据的问题，现在在结尾中说人家数据模糊，是没有根据的 to make such conclusion. To strengthen it 缺少逗号the argument人应该用arguer（可以替代arguer的词还有speaker或者author都可以），argument自己怎么会找阿 must find more evidence to demonstrate     that there was a big collision人家要证明没有collision or a huge eruption happened in the mid-sixth century, and then prove either the meteorite collision or the volcanic eruption is the exact cause of the earth’s sudden cooling.这只是作者的中间结论，人家要证明的只有一个，就是火山爆发引起了太阳变暗并且变冷，结尾应该是 find out the real cause of the cooling in the mid-sixth century.并且结尾中应该加上 a comprehensive analysis is needed 类似的话，因为原为还有一个重要错误是考虑不周全，很多地方的多种情况没有考虑到。

综合评价：本文最主要的不足在于：1两个逻辑错误1） 变冷的直接原因一定是太阳变暗这个潜在的错误假设没有找出
2）变暗不是火山就是陨石这个错误没有阐述清楚
2 论述的条理不够清晰，文章中有很多逻辑错误，结构不均匀
3 文章有一定数量语法错误
评分：3分

原文的逻辑：6世纪中期变冷由太阳变暗造成
太阳变暗不是陨石撞击就是火山爆发造成
没有陨石撞击的光电纪录，所以不是陨石
有巨响的纪录，所以是火山

可以的提纲：1 不一定是太阳变暗造成，although it may be the case, 但是没有提出证据说明，所以confuse concurrence with causal relationship将同时发生误认为因果
2太阳变暗可能还有其它原因不一定是这两个
3 证明这两个的证据也是有问题的：1没有光的记载可能：！）谁说一定有光2）有了可能没有纪录下来； 2 光有声音的记录也是不行的 1）声音不见得是火山2）缺少其它火山爆发现象的记载比方说岩浆，灰尘等
4 总结

修改意见：重写

xinxinwUID: 2144273

The argument concludes that the cooling happened in the mid-sixth century is caused by a volcanic eruption. To support this conclusion, the argument points out that the only evidence could be found are some Asian historical records of a loud boom that would be consistent with that volcanic eruption. However, the argument relies on a number of doubtful assumptions and therefore is unconvincing.

First of all, although there are no obvious records and evidences concerning about the large meteorite collision, which is an alternative possibility of the cause of the earth’s sudden cool down, we can not easily deny this causation’s likelihood. It is possible that the meteorite collision happened without any human witnesses. For example, it might happen in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, or in the arctic area, where almost no human lived there. Another possibility is that there could be some record about the collision, but lost in the history as the world has fluctuated dramatically. Such as warfare and nature catastrophe, these fluxes occurred in history could demolish any valuable evidences exist.

Secondly, the records of that loud boom failed to prove that the sound they record is generated by the volcanic eruption. The sound can be caused by tsunami and earthquake and such violent natural phenomena. There are no strong indications showing that the boom sound and the eruption are causal related. Even if the sound did caused by the eruption, the arguer still failed to prove that it is this eruption that caused the sudden cooling.后面这个可以再展开

Thirdly, it is true that few historical records survived from that time, we might have other possibilities which cause the cooling than the merely two found.？！？！？！？！？！

In summery, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. The only data available are too vague to make such conclusion. To strengthen it the argument must find more evidence to demonstrate     that there was a big collision or a huge eruption happened in the mid-sixth century, and then prove either the meteorite collision or the volcanic eruption is the exact cause of the earth’s sudden cooling.最后的总结太具体了，很容易和前面重复。其实结尾的重要性很低，所以概括的总结，简单指出改进的地方就可以了。

不知道你练习的时间有多久了，不过你考作文的时间还早得很，建议先从列提纲开始，Argument的重点就在此。能够分析作者的逻辑结构，找到主要的逻辑错误，确定最有效的攻击顺序，这三点可以在列提纲的时候解决。剩下的语言问题，呵呵，对你们来讲不是问题。


猫猫你太狠了吧，在公众场合哦，劳工很没面子的说。看得我一身冷汗。

不过也很羡慕劳工，能够得到高手如此细致的指点。拍我的时候能不能也这么狠一回？hoho