argument235 我们的九月小组-----第二十六次作业

maggie-leeUID: 2220892

提纲：
1.一个错误的假设—老年观众不喜欢摇滚乐，喜欢新闻联播
没有相应的调查，可能两个都不喜欢。
2.老年观众是主要的观众群体，这是值得怀疑的。即使老年人比例上升，可能相对年轻人，还只是个很小的份额。
3. 唱片卖的不好，不代表听众不爱在广播里听音乐。
4. 别的城市的新闻联播很成功，所以在本地也会成功
5. 这个大选期间的调查没有说服力
a.大选是个特殊时期，人们关注政治
b.人们可以通过其他途径如报纸，电视，了解，不一定是广播
题目：ARGUMENT 235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
字数：476 (591)         用时：0:30:00          日期：2006-8-22

In this memorandum, the general manager claims that the KNOW radio station should stop the program of rock-and-roll music, and instead set up a continuous news format. To support the recommendation, the manager introduces the ratio change of audience in terms of aged listeners. Also the general manager cites the dropped sales of recorded music in music store and further quotes the successful experience of another city as plausible evidence. In a word, the general manager has done much work to make us accept his claim, which might sound logical and convincing at the first glance. However, a detailed scrutiny reveals all the evidences do not lend a credible support to the claim.

To begin with, the manager unfairly assumes that the increase of average ratio of aged audience to all the listeners indicate the radio station to adjust the program as he suggested. Firstly, it is totally possible that the increase of aged audience among all listeners is not considerable enough to promote the ratio station to adjust the programs. Secondly, even assuming the ratio change requires some adjustments of programs, no evidence is provided that the news format would be to the taste of the aged audience. To support the manager's conclusion, it is necessary to do some survey concerning the preference in radio programs of aged audience.

Secondly, the mere fact that the sales of recorded music declined recently in the music stores, does not indicate that audience do not like to listen music, especially rock-and-roll music in the radio programs. Perhaps, some audiences extremely prefer to hear music in the radio programs, for the reason of saving money paid for CD, or just for being attracted by the form of music program.

Thirdly, the manager fails to analyze the concrete condition and problems of KNOW radio station and irrationally to assume that the successful experience of other radio stations could be simply replicated to lead to similar success. Unfortunately, this assumption without unpersuasive evidence ultimately results in the incredibility of the claim. It is totally possible that the orientations of the two radio station differ significantly. And perhaps the cited radio station has always been focused on news program and therefore very professional in the relevant field. However, this is not necessarily the case for KNOW, hence the change might deteriorate the condition in KNOW rather than solving the problem. Besides, those two radio stations might be so distinctive, a pure copying plan would destroy the business of KNOW.

Last but not least, the survey is insufficient to validate that the local citizens would pay much attention to KNOW' news programs to gain information with respect to politics in the long run. Common sense tells us that election time is particularly special time, and it entirely possible that in the rest time people do not care about the politics at all. Therefore, advised adjustments to radio programs would not function well in the long time term. Additionally, even granted that local citizens feel enthusiastic about politics all the time, it does not necessarily imply that those citizens would choose radio programs to obtain this information. It is equally possible that they prefer to acquire information concerning politics through way of television programs, newspapers. Hence, the advised programs might not be attractive for potential audience at all.

To sum up, although the manager presents so much evidence, none of them could convincingly support his or her recommendation. Moreover, it is imperative for the manager to provide more persuasive and credible evidence, such as survey, statistics and so forth.