argument45 12月高强组第三次作业

sunnie_518UID: 2136235

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 583         TIME: 0：45:00          DATE: 2006-12-4
提纲：1 reports 不一定很可靠
      2 全球变暖的可信性，并不一定会使冰融化
      3忽略其他的原因。

In this argument, the speaker concludes that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support his conclusion, the speaker cites reports from local hunters which indicate that the deer population is declining. In addition, the speaker also provides the evidence that recent global warming trends causing the sea ice to melt coincide with these reports. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

First of all, the assumption that the number of Arctic deer has declined is based on unconvincing reports from hunters. On one hand, from the reports quoted in the argument, however, we find no sign of these hunters being chosen randomly and no information about the numbers of these hunters, and have good reason to doubt if they are representative enough to reflect the general attitudes of all hunters as a whole. It is entirely possible that these hunters in reports always dwell in places where deer rarely emerge. On the other hand, even if these hunters' reports can represent the whole opinions, they can not lend strong evidence to this assumption. The fact that due to the higher vigilance of deer than before, the hunters cannot hunt more deer than ever before can gives these hunters an illusion that the deer population has declined.
Therefore, solely depending on the reports of hunters, the speaker can not convince us that the deer population is on the decreasing trend.

Secondly, there is no evidence to support the assumption that recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt. The speaker provides no evidence such as concrete statistics about the precise degrees increasing recently, or other authoritative studies to confirm the trend. So, it is difficult for us to accept his assumption. Meanwhile, given that the global temperature on average has became warmer, it is possible that the temperature in other places has increased a lot, while the temperature in Canada's arctic region does not suffer much increase even decrease, not to mention to melt the sea ice. It is highly possible that the deer can still migrate across the frozen sea ice to find food without changing their old traditions. Consequently, without providing clear information about the reliability of this trend, the speaker's assumption is unbelievable.

Finally, the argument above is weakened by the fact that it fails to take into account and rule out other possible causes of the population decrease. Even if the speaker can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, it is presumptuous to assert that increasing of global temperature which may change of their age-old migration is the real factor. This observed phenomenon, actually, says little more that that these two events are synchronic to each other. Either the factor of over-hunting or a large amount of edible food for these deer can account for the decline of population. Overall, without excluding other factor may have impact on deer population, it is unwarranted to maintain that this decline is attributed to change of old-age migration patterns.

In summary, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the argument does not lend strong support to what the speaker claims. To strengthen his conclusion, the speaker would have to provide more evidence concerning the reliability of the reports of the hunters and recent global warming trends. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding whether other factors will influence the number of deer.

最後の使徒UID: 2257608

In this argument, the speaker concludes that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.(感觉上这里默认了数量减少是不妥的,等下你还要攻击这点, 所以重述的时候应该把这个当成作者的一面之词来说) To support his conclusion, the speaker cites reports from local hunters which indicate that the deer population is declining. In addition, the speaker also provides the evidence that recent global warming trends causing the sea ice to melt coincide with these reports. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

First of all, the assumption that the number of Arctic deer has declined is based on unconvincing reports from hunters. On one hand, from the reports quoted in the argument, however, we find no sign of these hunters being chosen randomly and no information about the numbers of these hunters, and have good reason to doubt if they are representative enough to reflect the general attitudes of all hunters as a whole.(OTL, 报告和问卷调查是不一样的, 用不着随机选取样本和控制样本数量, this is report, not survey. 一般而言如果报告提供足够的证据的话不管是几个人提的都是可信的) It is entirely possible that these hunters in reports always dwell in places where deer rarely emerge.(既然是一直rarely emerge的话, 何来下降一说呢? 这第一点应该质疑猎人说的话可信度, 比如他们呆的地方比较少, 鹿已经从这里走光了, 等等, 但不应该用攻击SURVEY的模板, 另外on the other hand感觉用不着让步假设, 因为这两个是可以相互让步的, 所以意义不太大. 只要说: 一, 猎人的报告可能是片面的; 二, 猎人可能只是幻觉) On the other hand, even if these hunters' reports can represent the whole opinions, they can not lend strong evidence to this assumption. The fact that due to the higher vigilance of deer than before, the hunters cannot hunt more deer than ever before can gives these hunters an illusion that the deer population has declined.Therefore, solely depending on the reports of hunters, the speaker can not convince us that the deer population is on the decreasing trend.

Secondly, there is no evidence to support the assumption that recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt. The speaker provides no evidence such as concrete statistics about the precise degrees increasing recently, or other authoritative studies to confirm the trend.(全球变暖也算是commensense了, 不用特别论证吧? 应该针对当地情况给出全球变暖带来的影响) So, it is difficult for us to accept his assumption. Meanwhile, given that the global temperature on average has became warmer, it is possible that the temperature in other places has increased a lot, while the temperature in Canada's arctic region does not suffer much increase even decrease, not to mention to melt the sea ice. (作者没说全球变暖是平均温度变暖吧, 只是个普遍趋势而已.)It is highly possible that the deer can still migrate across the frozen sea ice to find food without changing their old traditions. (Why? 这段最重要一点: 全球变暖不一定引起了这个地区的冰融化 没有提到, 所以这段让人感觉含糊, 好多指代也不明确) Consequently, without providing clear information about the reliability of this trend(which trend?全球变暖?冰融化?还是当地气候变暖?), the speaker's assumption is unbelievable.

Finally, the argument above is weakened by the fact that it fails to take into account and rule out other possible causes of the population decrease. Even if the speaker can substantiate the foregoing assumptions(which assumptions? 全球变暖导致鹿吃不到东西? 鹿减少了? 如果两个都让步掉的话, 就算别的原因可以作用, 那么作者所说的原因也不一定是错的), it is presumptuous to assert that increasing of global temperature which may change of their age-old migration is the real factor. This observed phenomenon, actually, says little more that that these two events are synchronic to each other. Either the factor of over-hunting or a large amount of edible food for these deer can account for the decline of population. Overall, without excluding other factors may have impact on deer population, it is unwarranted to maintain that this decline is attributed to change of old-age migration patterns.

In summary, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the argument does not lend strong support to what the speaker claims. To strengthen his conclusion, the speaker would have to provide more evidence concerning the reliability of the reports of the hunters and recent global warming trends. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding whether other factors will influence the number of deer.

总评: 语言很不错, 用词错误也很少, 基本已经到了写阿狗的一个水平了.
问题: 过于模板化, 很多句子都是suit everywhere的, 而由此造成的直接后果就是指代不明确, 以至于你想打哪个点读者都看不出来, 另外在论证的逻辑关系上还需要加强些.


[ 本帖最后由 lastangel 于 2006-12-4 22:31 编辑 ]

sunnie_518UID: 2136235

多谢ls的宝贵意见，强人就强人！！