Argument147 大杀四方小组第一次作业...

郁香那夜UID: 2249340

Argument 147

The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
“ Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have decline over the past two years, a recent survey of video-games plays suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.”

Date:12.28.2006             Time:AM.10:35 to 11:30         Words:453

This argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. The arguer claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games are probably to get an incredible increase in the coming months. To support this, the arguer points out that Whirlwind has just done an extensive advertising campaign focused on people 10 to 25 years old. In addition, he cites the result of a survey-----players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics----Whirlwind has just introduced such games to meet their preference. But, the argument is not persuasive and has several critical flaws.

The major flaw which weakens the argument is arguer’s assumption that people 10 to 25 years old most likely to play video games. For one thing, what’s the evidence of this assumption? The arguer uses a word “likely” to take part of logical survey that makes the assumption is nothing but his personal imagination. Secondly, let the assumption goes, this age-group almost couldn’t earn their living, even if they are fond of video game, they’re not the directly purchasing power. Thirdly, would the advertising campaign work? No evidence supports that the game players will be attracted by advertisements and then but the games. Likely, they are interested in trial games for free but do not trust ads. The arguer fails to do detailed survey, which produces that his assumption is weakened.

Another questionable evidence is the survey of video-game players. Compare to the first flaw----totally unreasonable assumption----the arguer gives us a survey of video-players. Regratably, the survey is oversimplified. From the survey in the argument, however, we find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, and have good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the attitude of all the players. Never known the sample players’ background, including their ages, jobs, genders, incomes and so on, which makes the survey vague. What’s more, what on earth do the players really care about? Only the lifelike graphics? That sounds unwarranted.

Last but not least, even if all the assumptions are true, what’s the reason for the decline sales of Whirlwind video games over the past two years? How about marketing conditions? Is there any competitive rivals in the video games’ market? Without thinking of other factors, relaying on the lifelike graphics and unreasonable focus consumer group, the analysis is critical.

In conclusion, the argument, while it seems logical at a glance, has several flaws as discussed above. The argument could be improved by doing further research about characteristics and preference of the potential consumers, knowing movements of alternative competitors, developing not only the graphics but the attesting plots, lively characters, attractive stories and so forth. Reasonably causal relationship should be set up between assumption, evidence and result.

Outlines of Argument 205

This argument, by making a comparison of the city of Belleville, which installed high intensity lighting and therefore declined vandalism, with Amburg City, which begun police patrols but subsequently remained constant vandalism, the argument for installing high intensity lighting throughout Ambrug in order to control crime and revitalize the declining neighborhoods seems logic.

However, the arguer fails to take into account other possible reasons why Belleville’s declined vandalism.

In addition, the arguer unfairly assumes that the high intensity lighting could combat crime. Granted that high intensity lighting might decline vandalism, is does not necessarily imply that it has positive effect on other even more horrible crimes, such as robber, rape, murder and so on.

We are told nothing about the negative effect of the high intensity lighting, and other conditions about Amgrug City, to infer that Ambrug City could revitalize the neighborhoods.

In conclusion, the arguer oversimplifies the high intensity lighting’s effects on the city by only gives us some possibly positive points. And, he makes a probably wrong causal relationship between the high intensity lighting and revitalizing the neighborhoods, and regarding the detail situation, experience could not simply be cited from city of Belleville. All of the above make this argument invalid and probably misleading.


[ 本帖最后由 郁香那夜 于 2006-12-30 22:19 编辑 ]

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This argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. The arguer claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games are probably to get an incredible increase in the coming months. To support this, the arguer points out that Whirlwind has just done an extensive advertising campaign focused on people 10 to 25 years old. In addition, he cites the result of a survey-----[这是什么标点符号？？]players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics----[？？]Whirlwind has just introduced such games to meet their preference. But, the argument is not persuasive and has several critical flaws.
[行文简洁，结构清晰。不过两个论点的位置是否换一下更好？因为与题干中的顺序不一致]

The major flaw which weakens the argument is arguer’s assumption that people 10 to 25 years old [are]most likely to play video games. For one thing, what’s the evidence of this assumption? The arguer uses a word “likely” to take part of logical survey that makes the assumption is nothing but his personal imagination. Secondly, let the assumption goes, this age-group almost couldn’t earn their living, even if they are fond of video game, they’re not the directly purchasing power. Thirdly, would the advertising campaign work? No evidence supports that the game players will be attracted by advertisements and then but[buy] the games. Likely[什么意思？], they are interested in trial games for free but do not trust ads. The arguer fails to do detailed survey, which produces[错误用法] that his assumption is weakened.

Another questionable evidence is the survey of video-game players. Compare to the first flaw----totally unreasonable assumption----the arguer gives us a survey of video-players[这句话多余，应删除]. Regratably[？？？], the survey is oversimplified. From the survey in the argument, however, we find no sign of such procedures for random sampling[句子不通], and have good reason to doubt if[whether] the sample is representative enough to reflect the attitude of all the players. Never known [not knowing]the sample players’ background, including their ages, jobs, genders, incomes and so on, which [which删去，这句话不是定语]makes the survey vague. What’s more[用in addition,否则两个what重复], what on earth do the players really care about? Only the lifelike graphics? That sounds unwarranted[这样论证恐怕不好，要给出自己的理由，而不是想当然].

Last but not least, even if all the assumptions are true, what’s the reason for the decline sales of Whirlwind video games over the past two years? How about marketing conditions? Is there any competitive rivals in the video games’ market? Without thinking of other factors, [and merely]relaying on the lifelike graphics and unreasonable focus consumer group, the analysis is critical[又一个想当然的词，你恐怕不知道它的实际意义].

In conclusion, the argument, while it seems logical at a glance, has several flaws as discussed above. The argument could be improved by doing further research about characteristics and preference of the potential consumers, knowing movements of alternative competitors, developing not only the graphics but the attesting plots, lively characters, attractive stories and so forth. Reasonably causal relationship should be set up between assumption, evidence and result.

评语：论证结构清楚，分析比较透彻，但是语言问题较多。