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题目:ARGUMENT205.
The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.
"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city."
正文(377words):
The arguer attempts to convince us that the sales of whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months by introducing several games that provide lifelike graphics with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at the people who are most likely to play video games. However, the argument was well-presented but not well-reasoned.
In the first place, there are some problems with the survey. The arguer just mentioned the vaguely that the survey was conducted towards video players, and didn’t express clearly how large the sample was, where the survey was conducted, what kind of people the survey was targeted. The sample may be 100 people, or only 5 people, thus cannot get an effective conclusion. Besides, if the selling places of Whirlwind video games are most in the city center, while the survey was conducted in rural areas, we also cannot easily concluded that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase.
Secondly, even if the survey was perfect, It probably will not lead to the result of the increase of the sales by introducing such games with advertising dramatically at people aged 10 to 25, for those who the campaign aimed at are possibly not those who buy the video games, and most people between 10 to 18 certainly haven’t the purchase capacity. People who buy video games may pay more attention to the price, the content of the video games, or the design style of them.
Finally, the arguer draws a hasty conclusion. Even though the video games that provide lifelike graphic will result in the increase of the sales, it is just one of the main reasons, other factors like the price and the technology may also influence the sales, or the market circumstance. For example, if it happens to suffer economic depression during that period, the sales will be lowered down no matter whether the new games are introduced in or not.
As it stands, the argument is not logically reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to provide more detailed and reasonable information about the survey. Additionally, the arguer must provide the evidence that the campaign made will surely lead to sales increase with considering all other main factors that may influence the sales volume.
第一篇,写得磕磕巴巴的,欢迎大家拍砖! |
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