TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 529 TIME: 1:20:00 DATE: 2006-12-30
The argument presented above make the prediction about the sales of Whirlwind video games in coming days. The author gives this judgment based on the survey. However, this prediction does not consider all situations. Obviously, it has flaws in term of logics.
First of all, the most important evidence cited by the author is the survey. However, this survey is ambiguous. It can’t persuade me to rely on it, because I am not sure whether it is qualified because of some missing details: such as sample size, and the characters of this sample. If the sample size is small, nobody could draw a strong conclusion based on it. Furthermore, if people chosen in that sample are not very typical, the conclusion is not persuasive too. Probably these people have similarity, and they are holding the same attitude toward this issue. Their opinion maybe not identical to the general opinion held in the whole population. For instance, if this survey was made among people of a certain area, because of under the influence of same customs and traditions, it’s very likely that these people are holding similar attitudes towards a specific issue. However, if the survey was made in another area, people there will hold a different opinion for this issue. It is even contrary to the prior one in some circumstance. In a word, the sample must be diversified, in order to be convincing. However, regarding the article above, I can’t make sure the quality of the survey.
Even if the quality of this survey reaches the standard, it is still not strong enough to make us believe in the conclusion, since there is no direct relationship between the evidence and the conclusion drawn based on it. Although almost everyone would say that lifelike graphics will make the feeling of playing games better, nobody could realize it without an up-to-date computer. Does everyone who likes play video games have the most advanced computer? It is unrealistic. Typically, a young person, in his or her early twenties, just started to work. It is absolutely a heavy financial burden to update computer to the newest model with huge memory and terrific 3-D graphic function. For the teenagers, most of them are still in schools, supported by their families. In most cases, their families are still paying mortgages to banks for their houses. A lot of them are supporting other kids in school. How could they pay over one grand to buy an awesome computer for nothing but entertainment?
It doesn’t make any sense.
Finally, an extensive and successful advertising campaign will cost huge amount of money. This advertising cost will be accrued to the production cost. Eventually, customers have to pay all the cost and profit margin to the manufacture. The prohibitively high price tags of these new games will curb most potential customers from opening their wallets.
On the whole, there is no clear link between the evidence and the conclusion. From my point view, the author’s statement is not convincing, these new games with lifelike graphics, and the related extensive advertising campaign are not necessary to increase the sales of Whirlwind video games dramatically in the next few months.
拍,拍!
发表于 2006-12-31 22:25:55
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