argument147 微观状态小组第二次作业 诚恳排砖

aunknownUID: 2173661

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."


Before claiming that there will be a sharp increase in the sales of Whirlwind video games, the complete examination to the evidences afforded by the author is needed. The author seems to assume that, due to Whirlwind implanting some games that those surveyed player desired, the sales of Whirlwind will soar without considering some other factors which may have impaired the credibility of the assertion.

To start with, whether the video-game players involved in survey are also same from 10 to 25 years old is not provided by the author, and therefore the prediction that the sales of Whirlwind video games will boost is open to doubt. Common sense informs us that different aged group of people have distinct penchant. It then is entirely possible that the surveyed players are some persons over 30 years and so are more interested in picture effect of games; on the contrary, the persons at 10 to 25 years old more focus on the contents of games. Unless this case it is too rashly to contend the rising trend.

Moreover, even if the surveyed players are at the same range of ages, to assume that those who express their largest liking to the picture effects of video games will certainly make their decisions to buy such games is unwarranted. As is well known to all, before buying something, people can generally consider many facets such as price, quality and so on and keep a balance in these rather than only the biggest interest. As a result, perhaps the video-game players, although they quietly like those vivid-pictures games, account on whether the plots or theme of game is compelling, and whether the voice effects can be accepted, and so on. Consequently, without thinking over these cases, it is unconvincing to conclude people who prefer some games will also buy them.

Finally, even assuming that people can purchase the games that they express strong interests in, it is still suspicious to allege the sales of Whirlwind video games will be possibly to boost. There are quite a myriad of uncertain factors that can impact the rise in the sales. For instance, if there have been occurred an seriously economic crisis in that area, or the competitor simultaneously introduce the similar products as Whirlwind's but less price, it is completely likely that there will be not a larger number of people to purchase Whirlwind video games. If so, the rapid increase in sales of Whirlwind video games cannot occur.

From what has been discussed above, we can safely arrive at the conclusion that the evidences provided by the author are unpersuasive and so the author fails to presage the rise in the sales of Whirlwind video games. To strengthen it, the author should afford more information regarding the surveyed players and investigate whether the player will purchase the video game that they prefer, as well as survey the concrete conditions of market