Argument65 欢迎拍砖必回拍

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Argument65
The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States."For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."


Stocking domestic cheeses rather than imported cheese could improve profits

Reason:
1. Last year, the most favorable cheeses in newest store were domestic cheeses from Wisconsin
2. Recent survey of a magazine indicates that the preference among domestic cheeses’ subscribers is increasing
3. Limiting inventory could reduce the expenses of the company

未限时  
The president of the cheese store concluded that by stock primarily on domestic cheeses rather than imported ones their company could improve profits across the chains of their stores throughout the country. To support his conclusion, the president cited two evidences and one assumption. However, after careful scrutiny of each of these reasons, I found all of them unconvincing as it stand.

First of all, the fact that the five best selling cheese in newest store are local does not necessarily mean that it is the same in the national scope. Perhaps these stores are near Wisconsin or the residents in there happened to be in favor of cheese from Wisconsin. Or even more possible, the newest open store located in someplace where the residents have low income, as a result they turn to Wisconsin cheeses which are cheaper compared to other cheeses sold in store. Without ruling out these alternative explanations, the author can not convincing me that the cheeses of Wisconsin are popular across the country, let lone bring profits to the company.

Another evidence the author cited to support his conclusion involves a survey conducted by a magazine called Cheeses of the World. However, this information is unpersuasive as it stands. To evaluate the result of the survey, we should know the construction of the responders. It is entirely possible that this magazine is a local one and the responders are limited to a certain geographic region. Even if the result is reliable in the national extent, it still cannot warrant the assumption that domestic cheeses do sold better than before. An increasing in preference may result from a promotion campaign of the domestic cheese companies which gives more recount to the subscribers. If it is the case, the author’s argument would be seriously weakened. To strength the claim, he should provide more specific information that the increasing of preference is due to the increasing favor of domestic cheese among the consumers. Even if the sells of domestic cheeses are increasing in last years, it does not suggest it surpass the sells of domestic cheeses. The author overlooked the figure of preference towards imported cheeses. If regardless of its increasing preference, the preference rate of domestic cheeses is still lower than the imported ones, the author’s conclusion that domestic cheese would sell better than imported ones is a presumptuous hasty one at best. Above all, the author needs provide more specific information behind the survey rather than a mere result.

Even if the domestic cheeses are more popular than imported cheeses among the consumers across the nation, the author’s conclusion that we should stop store imported cheeses in order to raise the profits is unfounded. First, being popular among the consumers for merely one year does not indicate the consumption would rise continually. If the prices of domestic cheeses are generally lower compared to imported ones, probably the trend of buying them is result from stagnation of economic in recent years which would be recovered soon. It is equally possible that several newly launched domestic products are doing welling in their first year in market which account for the rising sell of domestic cheese. However, no proof shows that they would success in the coming year. Second, the assumption that by reducing storage expense the company could improve its profits is doubtful. What if the need for imported cheeses increasing drastically next year, which might be result from more reasonable price adjusted by the oversea companies as a countermeasure towards the competition brought by domestic company. If so, the profits of company would shrink due to the incapability to satiate the market with enough imported cheeses. Failing to consider the possibility of these two situations, the author’ conclusion is open to question.

In final analysis, the author’ conclusion is invalid and misleading as discussed above. To make the claim more convincing, the president would have to prove that domestic cheeses do sold better than imported cheeses across the nation by offering more specific information. Moreover, I would suspend my judgment about the credibility of the recommendation of stopping store many imported cheeses to improve the profits of the company unless the president provide more concrete evidence that the domestic cheeses could actually sell better than imported ones in the coming year.  

[ 本帖最后由 DIDOROSE 于 2007-1-8 11:16 编辑 ]