Argument47 【CSMY作文互改小组】第五次作业

stevenhuUID: 172722

Argument47

DATE :2007-1-17  TIME: 1hour  WORDS :480

The arguer's claim that the cooling of earth was probably caused by a volcanic eruption seems sound. In order to prove the assertion, the arguer infers that a dimming of the sun would cause the extremely cold temperatures, and at the same time, referring the found historical accounts, the arguer rules out the possibility that meteorite collision had caused this dimming of the sun. A serious consideration of the arguer's inferring process would review that this reasoning has at least the following fallacies.

Firstly, though it is based on the found accounts, the arguer's assumption that the temperature decrease is caused by a dimming of the sun is unreasonable. Since no record can surely conclude the temperature drop is caused by dimming of the sun, it is equally possible that it is caused by a huge accidental glacier collapse and unfortunately those big ice blocks are followed by sea-stream to world's warmer area, which then absorbs huge amount of heat to convert itself to water, thus make the climate cool. Though the dimming of the sun can probably cause the temperature decrease, without ruling out the possibility of other causes, the arguer's opinion is just unconvincing.

Secondly, though we can admit that the temperature decrease is caused by dimming of the sun, just as mentioned, without exempting other probable causes, the arguer can not figure out the dimming of sun is either caused by meteorite colliding or volcanic eruption. For example, it may be possible that at that time, the nuclear reaction of the sun suddenly became not as active as usual, or because another slowly moving planet was just coming through between the earth and the sun, so that people on earth fell that the sun light is not as warm as before. Although the two reasons mentioned in the passage is possible, excluding other causes made the arguer's opinion not so convincible.

Finally, it is not serious for arguer to rule out the other possible cause base on mere surviving Asian historical records. As is known to all, almost all the historical records are recorded under the government’s or some powerful people's fund. In this circumstance, historical records are often not invulnerable to either government or powerful people's mind, thus are often not exactly the same with truth. Therefore, the arguer’s demonstration that volcanic eruption was the real cause which was totally based on theses unbelievable record is soundless.

Totally speaking, the arguer’s point that the cooling happened in sixth century was caused by volcanic eruption is unreasonable, because the arguer fails to demonstrate the claimed casual relationship between the dimming of the sun and temperature decline, and volcanic eruption and temperature falling down. To make the conclusion convincing, the arguer should also cite some geological or biological proof to further consolidate the mentioned casual relations.