Argument45【CSMY作文互改小组】第六次作业 有拍毕回

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45The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

[ 翻译]北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。

1.没有证据表明warming trend已经导致北极鹿无法像祖先一样在冰块上迁徙

2.也没有证据显示驯鹿的数量减少和全球气候变暖有关

3.其他因素：本地猎人的报告是否准确；没有说明，如果北极鹿不能够迁徙就会死亡或者减少

Words: 461(modified)                  TIME 00:30:00             DATE: 2007-1-18
At first glance, the arguer’s reasoning seems sound. According to his conclusion, the decline of deer population in arctic areas should be attributed to their unable migration as their ancestors. But unfortunately, if we make a careful scrutiny of his evidence, several doubts will be cast on this conclusion and apprehension will be heaped on other factors.

To begin with, the arguer unjustifiably assumes that the only reason why arctic deer decline is that they cannot migrate between islands like their ancestors because of the ice melting. However the arguer obviously overlooks various alternative explanations for the population decline. For instance, it is entirely possible that the ice melts so little that will be not enough to affect the migration of the deer. Under such favorable circumstance, the deer population decline should be undoubtedly responsible for other factors such as over-hunting or food shortage. Without considering and ruling out these and other possible scenarios, the arguer cannot persuade me that the decline is caused by migration.

Moreover, the arguer relies on the unsubstantiated assumption that the deer population decline is due to global warning just because these reports coincide with recent global warming trends which cause the sea ice to melt. The arguer forcefully adds a relationship between the two but provides no evidence to substantiate it. Absent evidence to support this, it is highly possible that the relationship is groundless. For example, perhaps the temperature rise caused by global warming increase the opportunity for a great number of plants to grow that arctic deer need not to migrate to seek their food. Or perhaps the temperature rise is not only helpful but beneficial for their breeding. If this is the case, the decline of arctic deer caused by global warming would undoubtedly lead to be abortive.

Even if we accept the assumptions that the population decline of arctic deer really have close relation with the global warming, but the arguer still fails to offer any evidence to prove the validity of the report issued the local hunters. If the number of recipients is small and they hunt animals in locked areas that would render it impossible to state that the deer population is actually declining. Without all-round census and careful statistic the number of arctic deer, it is difficult to for the arguer to persuade us that the number of arctic deer is decreasing.

In conclusion, the argument is not well reasoned as it stands. The evidence provided in the analysis does not lead strong support to what the author maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence that the decline of arctic deer is attributable to migration and global warming, and other alternatives such as over-hunting and habitat reduction should be taken into account.