argument48 感觉错误不好组织呢

lindorUID: 2290025

TOPIC: ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 420          TIME: 1:05:04          DATE: 2007-1-29

In this argument, the arguer attributes the cause of the decrease of fitness level to the recent decline in the economy. To support this conclusion, the arguer points out that this year expenditures on fitness-related products and service are low. In addition, the arguer excludes the possibility of computers because overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest. As it stands, this argument suffers from several critical flaws as follows.

To begin with, the arguer groundlessly assumes that the unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services this year can imply the decline in the economy. The arguer fails to consider other possible alternatives for the cause of low expenditures on fitness-related products and services. Such alternatives may include that last year citizens bought fitness-related products and they need quite less this year. It is possible that  citizens put more energy on other activities, such as computer games, rather than fitness so they need quite less fitness-related services. Moreover, the arguer does not provide sufficient information about the economy in Corpora. Perhaps effective measures was taken to improve its economy, therefore, many citizens can buy much expensive computers.

In addition, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. The fact that overall fitness levels are highest in the regions of Corpora where levels of computers ownership are also highest does not convincingly ensure that most people in Corpora do not spend too much time using computers. It is possible that people in the regions of highest computer ownership play computer less than other regions. Besides perhaps those people are youngest and healthiest than other people, so they are their overall fitness level are highest.  The arguer fails to provide enough information of population in regions where levels of computer ownership are highest. If the number of people there is a quite little proportion of the whole population in Corpora, those regions are not representative.

The last but not the least, the auger ignored the possibility that the national advisory board would change the physical fitness level. With the improvement of technology, it is much likely that the standard of physical fitness improved as well. Maybe citizens in Corpora keep the same fitness levels as twenty years ago, which now is the half of levels today.

In summary, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. To make it more convincing, the arguer should analyze the economy situation in Corpora, and make clear the relationship between the economy and the fitness levels.

韩猫猫UID: 2281024

TOPIC: ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 510          TIME: 0:41:06          DATE: 2007-1-30

The author of the article in the newspaper conludes[concludes] that the decline of the economy is the reason of the less physical fitness of the citizens, and the latter will improve when the economy does. To support this conclusion, the author contends that it is not the computer using which reflected on the ownership of the computers that causes the decline of the fitness. After careful scrutiny of the article, I find the conclusion is not credible.[原文作者的思路：1结论的得出，基于he national advisory board的调查，通过与20年前的调查比较（原先定义的fitness标准，有一半citizens达到，现在只有四分之一），说明less fitness，作者认为是economy decline引起的；2，论据，包含两方面，一是反驳the board总结的原因——说明不是使用电脑带来的；二是支持economy decline的论据；前者作者cited在Corpora，fitness level 与computer ownership 都是最高的；后者cited ：this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services]

First of all, the author falsely equal[equated] the ownership of the computer to the time spent in front of the computer[in using the computer 会不会更好？]. It is entirely possible that most people in the region where levels of computer ownership is highest needs recent[last最新消息？] information as their jobs demand. It is the computer that provide the convience to their work and lives when getting and sending some informations. They need not stay in front of the computers for a long time, while the people in other regions play games and see films on the computers who sit staring the screen several hours a day without rest.[Since the main use of computer is to fetch information, they may spend less time in using computer than the ones in other region who enjoy watching films or playing games for long time everyday这样写会不会更连贯一些？ ] We are not informed that the ownership can exactly reflect the use of the computer, let alone the fitness of the people. The author does not provide adequate evidence to prove that the time of using computers has relation to the healty of the people, as a result, it is curtly to conclude that it is not the computers that make people less fit.[这一段是要说明不能排除电脑是decline of fitness 的原因，怎么读了你的例子，说明了电脑占有率高——〉使用电脑的时间可能少——>电脑占有率高不一定是less fit的原因，这不是支持原文的观点了么？汗，不知道我说清楚了没？]

Moreover, the author does not provide enough evidence that the low expenditures on fitness-related products and services is caused by the decline in the economy. It is alse entirely possible that it is the low quality of the productions that prevent people from buying, or may be more people focus on other things which they think is more interesting and important than keeping fitness[fit], such as study and work. Even if the author can prove that the low expenditure is really caused by the economy, there is not enough evidence that low expenditure is equal to less exercise and less fitness. Without the fitness-related products, people still can do some jogging and playing some games to keep fitness.

Even if the low expenditure is the reason of the less fitness and is really caused by the decline of the economy, it is necessary that after the economy improved, the expenditure will not improve as well as the fitness of people. There is no information which can help us to predict what the people will do when the economy improves. Whether they will buy more food to make comfortable lives or pay more attention to their health, it all depends.

There are some other flaws in the article. We can not know how many citizens was adequate physical fitness twenty yeas before by the information of Corpora. We also can not tell whether the fitness of all citizens has improved or declined. So the whole discuss is on a foundation which needs to be discussed before getting to the point.

In sum, the conclusion in the article is not credible unless the author give more information to convince the reader the real condition of the citizens and the real reason.
我觉得这种argu最难写了，原文就是为了反驳一个结论，我们又要去反驳原文的结论，简直像是搞三角债，算都算不清……真痛苦：（

http://bbs.gter.ce.cn/bbs/thread-600876-1-1.html
多谢来拍拍我的啊：）

韩猫猫UID: 2281024

汗。ms贴错了……

lindorUID: 2290025

-.-
haha...