Argument147 【Persistence小组】第1次作业

小驴子UID: 2222683

147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

提纲：1 survey情况不明确

          2 10－25岁的问题

This editorial concludes that the sale of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the following day. To justify this conclusions, the author cites the following facts:(1) recent survey showed that game players prefered games with vivid graphics and matched the up-to-date computers, which just the games introduced by Whirlwind company. (2) The introduced game advertised a lot directed at people from 10 to 25 years old, who might played video games more than other ages. Careful examination of the supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the applicant's claim.


As for the survey that the editorial cites, the survey methodology might be problematic in 3 respects. First, the range of the survey is not clearly written. The survey might be done amont middle age, who were not likely to play games a lot according to the editorial conjecture. However, the games designed by Whirlwind were introduced to young people based on the result of the survey. If so, the sales of Whirlwind video games might not increase dramatically  because of the wrong markey analysis. Secondly, we are not informed whether players are required to choose their prefered game among alternation. If it did, then the result might induct the respondent, who might prefer games with other features which were not given in the survey. Thirdly, whether the survey is nationwild or only in local place is not well informed. It is entirely possible that the survey is nationwild but Whirlwind video games are only saled in local place. If this is the case, the survey might cannot represent the local people's attitude about the games and the editorial conclusion may not come into existence.


Even if the survey is directed to people from 10 to 25 years old. The argument also assumes unfaily that peole in these ages are more likely to play games rather than other ages. There's no evidence to prove this. It is entirely possible that people in this range of age might play games less since they might have much school work and examinations to pass that they don't have time to play. Even if they have time to play video games, they still might not buy Whirlwind video games just with lifelike graphics which requires the most up-to-date computers. Games are evaluated by several other parts, like sound effect, themes of games and wheter it has a attracting game mode.  Even if they prefer to buy games designed by Whirlwind company, they might not afford the games because most people in this range of age cannot earn much money. Most of them have to ask money from their parents and whether they could buy games is likely decided by their parents.

In conclusion, the anthor's argument is not persuasive. To bolster it, he must provide clearer evidence. Such evidence might including the following: the specific detail of the survey showing the age of attending people and their place; whether the lifelike graphics which requires the most advanced computers is the only feature that buyers care when they purchase video games. Finally, at the begining of the editorial,it showed that Whirlwind video games have declined over the past 2 years. However, the reason is not mentioned. To better access the argument, I need to know the reason of the declinition. If it is not the same as the evidence cited by author, it might be the main reason of the sale decreasing.

573字 未计时


[ 本帖最后由 小驴子 于 2007-2-2 20:44 编辑 ]

worenleflyUID: 2270315

This editorial concludes that the sale of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the following day. To justify this conclusions, the author cites the following facts:(1) recent survey showed that game players prefered games with vivid graphics and matched the up-to-date computers, which just the games introduced by Whirlwind company. (2) The introduced game advertised a lot directed at people from 10 to 25 years old, who might played video games more than other ages. Careful examination of the supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the applicant's claim.


As for the survey that the editorial cites, the survey methodology might be problematic in 3 respects. First, the range of the survey is not clearly written. The survey might be done amont middle age, who were not likely to play games a lot according to the editorial conjecture. However, the games designed by Whirlwind were introduced to young people based on the result of the survey. If so, the sales of Whirlwind video games might not increase dramatically  because of the wrong markey analysis. Secondly, we are not informed whether players are required to choose their prefered game among alternation. If it did, then the result might induct the respondent, who might prefer games with other features which were not given in the survey. Thirdly, whether the survey is nationwild or only in local place is not well informed. It is entirely possible that the survey is nationwild but Whirlwind video games are only saled in local place. If this is the case, the survey might cannot represent the local people's attitude about the games and the editorial conclusion may not come into existence.


Even if the survey is directed to people from 10 to 25 years old. The argument also assumes unfaily that peole in these ages are more likely to play games rather than other ages. There's no evidence to prove this. It is entirely possible that people in this range of age might play games less since they might have much school work and examinations to pass that they don't have time to play. Even if they have time to play video games, they still might not buy Whirlwind video games just with lifelike graphics which requires the most up-to-date computers. Games are evaluated by several other parts, like sound effect, themes of games and wheter it has a attracting game mode.  Even if they prefer to buy games designed by Whirlwind company, they might not afford the games because most people in this range of age cannot earn much money. Most of them have to ask money from their parents and whether they could buy games is likely decided by their parents.

In conclusion, the anthor's argument is not persuasive. To bolster it, he must provide clearer evidence. Such evidence might including the following: the specific detail of the survey showing the age of attending people and their place; whether the lifelike graphics which requires the most advanced computers is the only feature that buyers care when they purchase video games. Finally, at the begining of the editorial,it showed that Whirlwind video games have declined over the past 2 years. However, the reason is not mentioned. To better access the argument, I need to know the reason of the declinition. If it is not the same as the evidence cited by author, it might be the main reason of the sale decreasing.
模版没什么可说的，逻辑错误找的也不错，唯一不足的是在第二段里，把几个错误放在了一起从结构上看感觉不是很清晰~ 可以适当的改一下模版