Argument15 四海一家小组第四次作业

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Argument15 The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."


In this argument, a proposition is raised to suggest Old Dairy Industries stockholders sell their shares and that investors do not purchase their stock neither. According to the arguer, in a recent survey over 80 percent of the respondents indicated a desire to reduce the level of foods that contains fats and cholesterol; meanwhile, there are a large amount of low-fat products offered in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high both in fats and cholesterol, the corporation seems to sell less products which will let the profits down undoubtedly. There are several flaws that weaken the whole reasoning and ultimately make this argument unconvincing.

To begin with, the primary support of the low fats and low cholesterol desire is the survey recently conducted. Without more relevant detail we can not know the total number or other information of the samples. This may be a major problem or may not; depending on how the statistically procedure is performed. For example, the reliability and the validity of the questionnaire, we must make sure no subliminally mistaking question are asked. At the same time, the number of the entire samples--too small or to large are all inconvenience to conduct so that easily make bias or even affect the final result of the survey. Additionally, can the survey be representative of all people that involved such food choices? Only with this kind of relative information can we believe the recent survey indicating the desire to reduce the intake of foods contained fats and cholesterol is justifiable.

Moreover, the low-fat products offered in many food stores does not mean that they will all sold out, and certainly not further means they are needed by all food consumer as a large proportion of their diet constituents. Aside from the supply in the store and the desire to buy it, there are also crucial factors that will undoubtedly determine the consumers' options. The low-fat food will not be popular with large part of population without a properly acceptable price, the fairly excellent quality and the conveniently offered food sorts and other relative elements. Only when all these are prepared and the consumers are eager to buy such food products will the old high fat and cholesterol foods disappear in the market gradually. In addition, the foods sold in the food stores is low in the fat but not mentioned as low-cholesterol as well, so we cannot end the speculation that they are low-fat but has a higher or at least the same level as normal foods contains cholesterol. As a result, even assuming that the consumers do have a desire to buy food with lower fats and cholesterol, they probably would not buy those provided in the stores, or they seem not to buy such foods, if undeveloped, as their main food.

Finally, the corporation's sales can be affected by the specific situation. For instance, many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, and what if there are similarly many low-fat food supplied in the store are marketed by Old Dairy Industries, too? Or if the high fat and cholesterol foods produced by the company mostly sold to foreign centuries where people in general do not mind the level of fats or cholesterol, or if the food produced in Old Dairy Industries are so welcome that at the time and for a long period, it will occupy a great proportion in the market, or just assume that the company not only famous for the food production but also other products such as cookers or drinks--then the conclusion about the diminished sales and decreased profits will have no evidence to be defensible, not mention the suspicious proposition about the shareholder and other investments.

In conclusion, the argument is aptly unconvincing because of lack of detail about the survey, the underlying reasoning as to the consumers' preference to food products and other information of the Old Dairy Industries. To end the speculations, more casual relationship and evidences should be presented in a persuasive way.

[ 本帖最后由 moonapple 于 2007-2-13 23:21 编辑 ]