argument109 同主题

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109The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper.

"Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably. Chestnut City, which is about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never established any laws that limit new building construction. So it is clear that laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices.  If Maple City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these laws will have no effect on average housing prices."
1, P 与C 虽面积相同， 实际可用面积不一定一样，人们的需求也不一样。不能排除如果C 定了法律放假可能还会更高。
2，即便对P 和C没影响，不代表对M 也会没影响。可能P和C都是小城市，需求少，价格增长是通货膨胀的正常表现。而M 的需求大，现有的已经不能满足再去设定更低的限制，房价会增长。
3，应考虑法律的实质内容而不是表面看看有没有法律。内容不同，效果也会不一样。
Although cases in the letter seem to be similar with M city and support the editor's conclusion, they can not stand close scrutiny. Without considering the inherent difference between these cities, there is no ground for the editor to claim laws to limit the number of new buildings will not exert effects on average housing prices of M city.

To begin with, the fact that C city share similar increase with P city in average housing prices does not necessarily imply that the laws, which limit new construction in P city, have no effect on housing prices. Although sharing similar size, these two cities may differ from each other in the actual areas for constructing buildings. It is possible that there are several lakes inside C city, thus its total area for housing will be less than P city. And if population increases intensively, under such circumstance, there may not be sufficient available houses to meet demands of its residents. Consequently, average prices may rise. In this case, if government in C city propose similar laws to limit new building number, average housing prices probably will increase much more than P city, instead of similar with P.   

Furthermore, even if such laws in P city or C city play no influence on housing prices, result of conducting such laws in M city may still end up with distinctive results, for the situation in M city can be inherently different with those two cities. It is possible that both P and C city have small number of population and they do not need large number of houses. The increase in housing prices is completely the effect of inflation. In that case, though prices increased, laws played no influence on average housing prices. While in M city, there is dramatically increasing number of residents with rapidly enhanced requirement for houses, and economy is experiencing fast improvement. Under such circumstance, if M city promotes laws to limit number of new building, it is very possible that housing prices will increase since people are eager to and able to buy houses.

Last but not least, it is the content of the laws, not merely the existence of the laws that can determine its effects. For instance, the actual number of new buildings constructed in M city every year is fifty, which can soundly meet the requirement of their residents. Meanwhile the government wants to keep this balance, avoiding over investment on construction in market, they make laws to set a limit of 60. In this case, prices of housing may not be influenced. But if currently constructed new buildings, for example 50 every year, are not able to meet needs of the market, while government set a limitation of 40 new buildings, probably housing prices will increase because of such laws. Therefore, M city should consider the content of laws and situation in their own market in advance when predicting consequence of such laws.

To sum up, decision should be made after thorough investigation and comprehensive analysis. Without more informative data, we can not warrant whether or not the laws had really affect housing prices in P city. And M city should consider their own condition in such aspects as demands for new houses, ability to purchase of their residents, available location for new buildings and so on. Only after careful analysis, M city can make precise prediction about the effects of laws on housing prices.