Argument228 [AW狂人社]小组第三次作业

leonchunshengUID: 2247481

argument228  The follwing appeared in newletter from a political organization.
"In order to promote economic growth in the city, city residents should vote 'yes' on the state government's proposal to build a new expressway linking the outlying suburbs directly to the center. A direct link to the city center will enable downdown business to recieve deliveries more frequently, so that downtown retailers will no longer ren out of stock and city manufacturers will not be affected by shortages of materials. Booming business will not be affected by shortages of materails. Booming business will attract qulilfied workers from all over the state. workers who will be able to take advantage of the new expressway to commute ot work in our city. In addition to these advantage, hundreds of workers will be exployed to build the expressway, further stimulating the local economy."

提纲；
1  作者认证的前提是：目前交通状况不能满足人们的需求，确实需要这样一条高速路。但没有提供相应的资料。而且当前是否零售商和生产者是否也有题目中所说的那样，也没有证明。
2 另一个前提是 交通好经济一定就会好，其只是其中的一个因素，其他还有：资源，当地政府的政策。
2 交通好不一定表明人们会来工作，影响人们对工作选择的还有其他因素：薪水，工作环境。
4 修路只是一个短期的工程，工程完后人们依然没有工作，并不能进一步刺激经济。另外修路会不会给人们的生活带来一些负面的影响：占用人们的耕地。

Date 3-8   Words :601   Time:1.5h

The argument above presents a sound case for arguing that for the purpose of enhancing the economic growth in the city, city residents should say 'yes' on the state gornverment's proposal to build a new expressway that will link the city center and outlying suburs. A careful scrutiny of this argument, however, reveals that it suffers from several critical fallacies and therefore is unpersuasive.

First of all, the argument relies on the assumption that the current condition of the traffic does not satisfy the need and then it is necessary to build this new expressway. Yet it might be not the case,  The argument also fails to guarantee it. It is most likely that the system of transportation has already been advanced. if so, there is no need to build this expressway. Also, we are not informed whether the retailers are running out of stock and that city manufacturers are undergoing the shortage of materials. Even if it is a fact. Is it attribute to the poblem of transportation? Commen sense tell us that a myriad of factors, directly or indirectly, might lead to the retailer's stock and the manufaturers' shortage of materials, such as the resources of the relevant materials become few.

Another problem with the argument is that the arguer unfairly assumes that the new expressway will bring booming business. Nonetheless, this assumption is unwarranted. Although, to some extend, the good transportation conditions will play an active role in the development of the business, it is undeyning that the advancement of the business depends on a multitude of factors involving the local laws and whether there are sufficient resources of intellect and labor. It is entirely possible that the city doesnot own such resources enough that are indipensable to the business. therefore, the sole good transportantion donot, and cannot, make the local business to develop significantly. Moreover, the mere convenience in traffic cannot guarantee that there will a large number of qualified workers coming to seek jobs. The arguer overlooks a large nunmber of more impotant things that determine the workers' choices, such as payment offered by employers and the work condition. It is most probable that the payment provided by employers in the city is not reach the number that will attract these qualified workers, to a large exent, who have possessed their own jobs in other places, to give up their current jobs. if so, the arguer cannot draw the conclusion confidently.

Finally, even if one accepts the foregoing assumptions, the argument is still questionble because the prodject of building the expressway doesnot stimulate the local economiy. It is well-known that building an expressway is only a short term of program. While the economy in certain place needs a long period to allow itself to develop. It is possible that the local people will confront with the unemployment again when the project of building the expressway is finished. Which cannot solve the chief problem. Furthermore, the arguer doesnot take into account the negtive effects on the local residents brounght by the project. An obvious one is that a great amount of sapces used for agriculture will be taken by the expressway, which might meet the objection from the local residents.In short, until the arguer should eliminating these factors, the argument is unreasonable.

In sum, the argument has several patent flaws in logic which render it unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, further ivestigatioin and analysis are needed. To persuade me the arguer should provide more information about the current traffic conditions. Additionally, to evalue the argument well we must to know the local residents' atitute to the project.