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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players
suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were
most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require
the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign
directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of
Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 434 TIME: 上午 12:30:00 DATE: 2007-3-13
In the argument, the arguer tries to convince us that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase sharply in the next few months. To substantiate the argument, the arguer provides the evidence that the recent survey showed that the player prefer the video games that provide lifelike graphics and Whirlwind has just introduce several such games with an extensive advertising campaign. However ,as it stands, the argument suffers from several critical fallacies , which might seriously undermine the argument.
To begin with, according to the survey quoted in the argument , the arguer fails to provides reliable evidences to support the assumption that the Whirlwind sales trend is about to be reversed.For one thing, without any more details about the survey, especially the procedure of random sampling , we have great reasons to doubt whether the results of survey is representative for the video game players. For another , there are long-term customers and potential customers in the market. However, the survey which only focus on the video-game players totally ignores the potential customers ,which might misleads the real opinion of the market that the company needs.
Secondly, the reasoning that the sales would boom due to the new games with the extensive advertising campaign is open to doubt.In the first place, these new games introduced by Whirlwind require that the players should have the most up-to-date computers. Nevertheless, it is pretty clear that it is impossible for most of the customers have such computer, which will seriously challenges the sales of Whirlwind. In the second places, there is no evidence provided in the analysis that the people 10-25 years old is the age-group most likely to play video games. Worse still, we will suspend our judgement on the real effects of the advertising campaign until the arguer presents more information.
Finally, without taking the alternative factors concerning the market competition of video games into account, the arguer hastily and misleadingly claims that the sales of WHirlwind will soar. On one hand, given that there might be a fierce competition in the video game market, it is impossible for Whirlwind to promote the sales dramatically. On the other hand, assuming the survey is reliable , the market situation is hard to predict ,while the rivals of the Whirlwind make the same choices.
To sum up, the argument lacks credibility because the evidences provided in the argument do not substantially support what the arguer claims. To strengthen the analysis, the arguer should provide the evidence that the serverl new games introduced by Whirlwind will definitely attract the video-game players.To better evaluate the argument , we need more information regarding both the advertising campaign of Whirlwind and the current video game market.
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