Argument 99 求拍

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ARGUMENT99 - The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.
"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."

    In this argument, the arguer recommends that farmers should cultivate a new variety of seed, to strenghthen the conclusion, the arguer points out evidence that farmers in Abundia get high yields of rice by cultivating this seed. Moreover the arguer predicate that Paucia's trade will enhance if Paucia exports this high yield of rice. However, the argument is unconvincing for several falses.
    To begin with, the arguer observes a correlation between high yield of rice and the new variety of seed. Then, the arguer claims that the latter is the cause of the former. However, the arguer fails to consider other possible causes of increased yield of rice. For example, the increased yield of rice might result from the more land has been allocated for cultivation. It is also likely that last year Abundia's weather is more inclining to cultivate. The farmers consequently produced more rice than before. Lacking evidence that links high yield of rice and new variety of seed, it is presumptuous that enhanced yield was responsible for the adoption of the new seed.
    Furthermore, even if the increased yield of Abundia contribute to the new variety of seed. But, the arguer unfairly assumes that it will be successful in this small country. Perhaps, the climate in Paucia is not fit to cultivate. and, Paucia locates in a infertile area which is impossible to produce more food. For that matter, the arguer can not expect enhance yield of rice by adoption of a new variety of seed. In short, without accounting for possible differences between the conditions of Paucia and Abundia, the arguer can not persuade me that farmers in Paucia should adopt the recommendation mentioned above.
    Finally, the arguer reach the conclusion that Paucia's balance of trade will improved by exporting high yield of rice is unwarranted. Because the arguer offer no evidence to substantiate this supportation. Given other possible explanations for increasing balance of trade, such as international environment, advertisement. This evidence in itself lends little credible support to the arguer's hypothesis about improving balance of trade.
    After analyzing the evidence and reasoning, we can not precisely conclude that farmers in Paucia should cultivate new variety of seed instead of traditional crops. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer should conduct a new test for the new crops, and offer more specific evidence concerning the relationship between the new variety of seed and increased yield of rice.