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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 516 TIME: 01:00:00 DATE: 2007-5-4 18:28:50
In this editorial, the arguer attempt to convince us that sales of Whirlwind video games are about to increase dramatically in the next few months .To substantiate this claim, the arguer cites the result of a recent survey which shows that video-game players prefer to play games which provide lifelike graphics. In addiction, the arguer assumes that the introduction of several such video games and advertising campaign will increase sales. However, the argument relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
First of all, the editorial provides no evidence that the survey's respondents are representative of the overall group of people who play video games .It is entirely possible that the sample is very small, and even fewer responses to the survey .If it is the case, the survey result would be unreliable for the purpose of drawing any conclusions about the preference of video-game players, let alone about the sales trend of Whirlwind video games.
Secondly, the arguer doesn't analyze the reasons why the sales declined in the past two years. This could be a major problem shows the weakness and disadvantages of Whirlwind video games, which would decide the sales trend. Perhaps chaos management of the organization, the low efficiency, the few stores sell video games which make it difficult for people to buy a Whirlwind video game, but not the features of video game itself caused the declination .In either event, the editorial could not justifiably conclude that the sales would increase by making some kind of endeavor but not in the point.
Thirdly, even if the survey result is reliable, and the reason for the sales declination is because of the preference for video games with lifelike graphic, the arguer unfairly assumes that the advertising campaign would be effective. Absent evidence to support the assumption, it is as likely that Whirlwind chose the wrong advertising media, which are rarely read or seen by the target consumers; or a new semester is coming, and as common sense tell us, most of the people age from 10 to 25 are students, students have to leave their computers and begin to put themselves into study, so the left time for playing video games is much less or even none; or the competitors of Whirlwind introduce a lot of such video game as well and prejudices the sales of Whirlwind video games .Any of these scenarios ,if true ,would serve to undermine the editorial’s claim that sales trend will reverse.
In sum, the editorial cannot justify his or her conclusion on the basis of the scant evidence provided in the editorial .To bolster the argument, the author must provide better evidence that (1) the statistics of respondents involved in the survey, (2) it is the product leads the preference to Whirlwind than other company’s games, (3) the advertising campaign would be effectively conducted .To better assess the argument, I would need to know the real reasons that caused the declination in the past two years in detail and the competition situation of Whirlwind video game among all video games market.
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