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137The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.
"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River."
提纲:1调查的样本可能不够大。
2调查对象的选取可能不是随机的。
3作者忽略了财政收入的其他用途。
In this argument, the arguer recommends that the Mason City council increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River. To support his or her recommendation, he or she cites the surveys of the region's residents consistently ranking water sports(swimming, fishing and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Additionally, he or she points out that the agency responsible for rivers in their region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. On the basis of that, he or she reason that recreational use of the river is likely to increase. In my view, the argument suffers from a series of logical flaws which render it not so convincing as it stands.
In the first place, the survey should be statistically reliable, however, in this argument we can find no sign for the sample size of the survey, so we can not help to doubting whether the survey enroll enough people so as to be representative of all the residents of Mason City. For example, maybe the population of the residents adds up to 1000000, but there are only 100 participants. For that matter, the survey can not prove that water sports turns out to be the favorite sport of the residents of Mason City.
In the second place, only a survey with a random sample can bolster a convincing conclusion. Unfortunately, the arguer fails to describe the procedure for random samplings, so it is worthwhile to doubt whether the respondents are representative of the overall of the population of Mason City. Maybe, the participants of the survey happened to be the member of a committee of swimming. In that case, the survey would rank water sports as a favorite form of recreation indubitably, however, the interest of most residents in water sports is just so so.
Assuming the residents of Mason City do love water sports most, it keep uncertain whether the Mason City council need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River. Common sense tells us that the revenue of municipality is always scant, however, there many are large demand for investment, such as raise the income of underprivileged family, improve the public health service, ameliorate local schools etc which may be more exigent. Without taking account into those factors, the arguer can hardly make any sound recommendation.
To sum up, the recommendation of the arguer rests on two qualifications, one is that the residents of Mason City do consider water sports as the favorite sports, the other one there are no improvement more imperative than investment on improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River. Nevertheless, the argument contains neither, so the argument dooms to fail to make sense |
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