Argument53 [Victors小组]第八次作业

乳虎UID: 2251211

53Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin—a hormone known to affect some brain functions—would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children—now teenagers—who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

提纲：1作者把increased levels of melatonin before birth与shyness during infancy之间的相关关系混淆为因果关系。
      2作者武断地认为因为shyness during infancy所以婴儿长大以后shy。
      3样本太小。
In this argument, the arguer quotes a study showing that the 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mother's production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In addition, the author cites a following study conducted earlier that year showing that more half of these children-then teenagers- who had shown signs of dress indentified themselves as shy. On the basis, he or she concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. In my point of view, the argument contains a series of logical flaws, which makes it unconvincing.

In the first place, the arguer unfairly equates the correlation relationship with the causal relationship, so it is worthwhile to doubt whether the increased levels of melatonin before birth is responsible to the shyness of the infants. Mere the fact that the infants enrolled in the study were more likely that others to have been conceived in early autumn tell little about the reason of their shyness. Actually, there are many potential factor might affect the character of infants. For example, genetic factor might influence that, maybe the mother of the foregoing infants is shy, in that case, it is gene rather than melatonin that makes the infants show signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. It is equally possible that some substance digested by their mother before their birth that is responsible to the shyness of the foregoing infants. Without response to those alternative explanations, the arguer can not make me take seriously his or her conclusion.

In the second place, even if  the increased level of melatonin does makes the infants shy in infancy, the arguer falsely assumes that that shyness continue into later life. Commonsense informs us people's character is molded in everyday life gradually, so many factors can influence the them. For instance, social environment where people live must play a significant role in the process of the character takes shape. A child who live in a metropolis, in high society, have enough opportunities to participate social intercourse, for that matter he or she would not be identified as shy. By the contrast, a child living in country, having little chance to open his or her insight and communicate with kinds of people are more likely to be identified as shy. Unfortunately, the arguer fails to take into considering and rule out those possibilities, so he is doomed to fail to make any sound conclusion.

Last but not the least, assuming the causal relationship and the foregoing assumption is reliable, the conclusion still keep unconvincing, because the sample size is too small. As everyone knows, a reliable study must be statistically credible, a study with a too small sample size is doomed to be meaningful. Unfortunately, there are only 25 participants in the study, so considering there are tens of millions of infants in the world, the sample is too small to be representative the population.

To sum up, the argument commits a series of logical flaws which made it not persuasive. To strengthen the conclusion, the arguer must provide sufficient proof to prove the causal relationship between the increased level of melatonin and the signs of mild distress. In addition, the arguer must provide credible evidence which indicates that the shyness of the infants continues into their later life. Above all, the study should investigate enough infants to make the study statistically representative of the population.  

[ 本帖最后由 乳虎 于 2007-6-9 20:10 编辑 ]

H-KevinUID: 2182070

53Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin—a hormone known to affect some brain functions—would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children—now teenagers—who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

提纲：1作者把increased levels of melatonin before birth与shyness during infancy之间的相关关系混淆为因果关系。
            2作者武断地认为因为shyness during infancy所以婴儿长大以后shy。
            3样本太小。

In this argument, the arguer quotes a study showing that the 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn(句子真的很长，  to have been conceived的先行词在什么地方？), a time when their mother's production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight.（这一，两句不是你提纲里的攻击重点，不需要写这么多吧） In addition, the author cites a following study conducted earlier that year showing that more half of these children-then teenagers- who had shown signs of dress indentified themselves as shy. On the basis, he or she concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. （是不是少了一点你提纲里说的那个样本太少？）In my point of view, the argument contains a series of logical flaws, which makes it unconvincing.

In the first place, the arguer unfairly equates the correlation relationship with the causal relationship, so it is worthwhile to doubt whether the increased levels of melatonin before birth is responsible to the shyness of the infants. Mere the fact that the infants enrolled in the study were more likely that others to have been conceived in early autumn tell little about the reason of their shyness. Actually, there are many potential factor might affect the character of infants. For example, genetic factor might influence that, maybe the mother of the foregoing infants is shy, in that case, it is gene rather than melatonin that makes the infants show signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. It is equally possible that some substance digested by their mother before their birth that is responsible to the shyness of the foregoing infants. Without response to those alternative explanations, the arguer can not make me take seriously his or her conclusion.

In the second place, even if  the increased level of melatonin does makes the infants shy in infancy, the arguer falsely assumes that that shyness continue into later life. Commonsense informs us people's character is molded in everyday life gradually, so many factors can influence the them. For instance, social environment where people live must play a significant role in the process of the character （这种说法?）takes shape. A child who live in a metropolis, in high society, have enough opportunities to participate social intercourse, for that matter he or she would not be identified as shy. By the contrast, a child living in country, having little chance to open his or her insight and communicate with kinds of people are more likely to be identified as shy. Unfortunately, the arguer fails to take into considering and rule out those possibilities, so he is doomed to fail to make any sound conclusion.(其实这段说了两个flaws,第一个是你说的continue into later life in the future,第二个是not only melatonin but also social environment  可以影响，是不是写两段比较好？)

Last but not the least, assuming the causal relationship and the foregoing assumption is reliable, the conclusion still keep unconvincing, because the sample size is too small. As everyone knows, a reliable study must be statistically credible, a study with a too small sample size is doomed to be meaningful（是不是说反了？no meaning）. Unfortunately, there are only 25 participants in the study, so considering there are tens of millions of infants in the world, the sample is too small to be representative the population.

To sum up, the argument commits a series of logical flaws which made it not persuasive. To strengthen the conclusion, the arguer must provide sufficient proof to prove the causal relationship between the increased level of melatonin and the signs of mild distress. In addition, the arguer must provide credible evidence which indicates that the shyness of the infants continues into their later life. Above all, the study should investigate enough infants to make the study statistically representative of the population.  

样本太少可以作为第一攻击点,所以攻击顺序可以按照原文顺序
各个攻击点的连贯我感觉还是蛮好的