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Argument 53. Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. In this argument, the speaker concludes that high levels of melatonin before birth lead to shyness during the whole lives of the children. To justify the argument, the arguer cites a researcher on 25 infants who expose to unfamiliar stimuli. Also, the speaker point out those children who were conceived in early autumn are likely to suffer from shyness when they are now teenagers and the reason, he/ she assumes lie in melatonin what is produced by their mothers. Nevertheless, I find this argument logically flaw partly which render it less convincing. First of all, the arguer fails to provide any evidences to substantiate the representative of the all people. To the contrast, the only 25 infants that were involved in that research are not statistically significant which undermine the entire argument creditability. Furthermore, because of lacking facts to show how the 25 infants were chose, it is possible that the later-shyness ones are from the same area where the people are more introverted than others. If this is true, the arguer would be less convincing than asserts. Next, even if the infants are really representative, the arguer neither provides the evidences to clarify the direct relation of the melatonin with the shyness of the infants. It is possible that there are other materials that are produced by the infants themselves cause the later introversive trend, or that the later accident happened in their individual lives lead to the disposition. If these hypotheses really are the facts, the arguer’s points which are based on this will be less creditability. Finally, even if it is really the melatonin that is in causal relation with the shyness, the speaker also lack supporting the assertion the shyness that happened later in some of the infants would last entirely through the their whole life. It is possible that the hormone-related shyness is just a period phenomenon and would change in their adulthood, even more it is also the other people who conceived in other season will suffer more shyness in their adulthood. If it is true, the argument would be less convincing than it asserts.
In sum, the arguer could not justify his/her point that high levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life in the argument. To bolster the argument, the arguer should provide evidence that the research is statically significant and representative of the whole humankind. To better assess the argument, I would also need to know the clear relation of the melatonin with shyness and the later observance on the people to judge whether the shyness is lifetime thing. | 
发表于 2007-6-9 06:09:35
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