Argument65 【0710G Victors互助小组】

#十指飞舞UID: 2330769

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 438          TIME: 00:50:00     
     
  In the memo,the president  recommends that the chain of cheese stores stop to stock many varieties of imported cheese and mainly stock domestic cheeses.To support this recommendation,the president points out the the five best selling cheeses last year at the newest stores were all one of the domestic cheeses from Wisconsin,and along with a survey which indicates that preference for domestic cheeses is increasing.However,the recommendation relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions,which render it unconvincing as it stands.

  First of all,the president unfairly assumes that the best-selling condition at the newest stores would apply to all the other stores.Yet ,we are not informed that all the stores are the same case.It is entirely possible that the hot-selling of  cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin is only limited to only a few areas.For axample,the newest stores are possibly located in or near Wisconsin,residents of these areas like this kind of flavor,other areas' citizens  would hate this kind of cheeses.If this is the case, the recommendation would not serve or even undermine the chain's goal.

  Secondly,even if the president can substantiate the foregoing assuptions ,the high sales are not necessary equal to good profits.Perhaps the deomestic cheddar cheeses are at hot-selling only becase they are cheeper than other cheeses or on sale for advertising reasons,the profits from these best-selling cheeses would not earn so much as we expect.Without more information and statistics about these best-selling cheeses ,I would not convinced that concertration primarily on deomestic cheeses would make more profits.

  Thirdly,the presidents provide no evidence that the survey's respondents are representative of the overall group of people who are in favor of domestic cheeses.Lacking such evidence,it is entirely possible that the most subsribers of the magazine are only the reseachers or sales who need to do research in  cheeses and are not the end consumers,so the result of the survey would not be credible.Moreover,the survey reflects the overall of worldwide trend,but may not apply to these areas where the chain of stores locate.In short,without better evidence that the statistically reliable the presidents cannot rely on it to .draw any firm conclusion that people would prefer domestic cheeses to imported cheeses,let alone about the profits that would be made.

  In sum,the recommendation is not well supported.To convince me that concertrating primarily on deomestic cheeses would be profitable the president would need to provide clear statistical evidence that the best-selling condition at newest stores would appeal to other cheese stores of the chain and other areas.To better evaluate the recommendation,I would need more marketingg information about the the margins of the sales and the extent to which the domestic cheeses accouts for such profitability.