Argument87 【天道酬勤作文互改小组】第十五次作业

alarenmingUID: 2329302

TOPIC: ARGUMENT87 - The following appeared in a memo to managers of Christine's, a chain of craft stores.

"Several major newspapers have recently run articles noting an increased interest in pottery. The number of potters in this country has risen by eighteen percent in the past five years, and pottery is particularly gaining popularity on college campuses. In order to take advantage of these trends, Christine's should immediately begin carrying a larger volume of pottery supplies. Since several of our stores have recently experienced a decrease in sales of painting supplies, all store managers should reallocate shelf space from the painting area for the display of pottery. Stores should display posters showing pottery that is designed to appeal to college-age individuals. These actions will undoubtedly increase our profits dramatically."
WORDS: 433          TIME: 00:28:54          DATE: 2007-7-16 14:19:39

Is it a good idea to replace all the painting area with the display of pottery? Will this idea bring immense profit for the company? The author said yes, and I say no after further thought.

In the first place, the author committed fallacy call "all things are equal". First, Even if the number of potters in the country has risen by eighteen percent in the past five years, no evidence showed in the argument that this situation will last this year, or in the future. Just like playing a coin, maybe the first five times you got the side which shows a flower, it can not guarantee that next time it is not the side which shows the amount. It is very possible the market will change in this year, people get weary of this potters. Second, It is the same reason, even several of stores have recently experienced a decrease in sales of painting supplies, it does not mean this negative sales will be still the same in next time. Who knows when people's taste will change? Who can say situation is not going to reverse? maybe just as what I mention above –people are tired with the potters and pay more attention to the paintings. In this circumstance, it is not necessary for the store to reallocate shelf space from the painting area for the display of pottery.

In the second place, the author ignored the factors which affect the painting's sales. Without deep analosis, it is not a wise plan to replace the painting. It is very possible that the painting itself is very amazing, and citizen here are very fond of this arts, but the price is too high to be afforded by people. Or, the stores are not in a good position, which places only have little people to visit. So, if considering several possibilities such as price, position, it will help the store to make a more wise decision.

In the third place, the speaker made a false cognition that college-age individuals are the main customers. Just imagine that people age like this, how can you expect him or her have enough money to bill for this potters or paintings? We do not deny some of them are very rich, but no evidence showed that they are interested in this. So, it is not rational to set the group as the main customers.

In sum, as it stands, the arguer need to be more perspective to make the argument more logically acceptable, without ruling each of the possibilities, it is too hasty to make such a conclusion.