Argument117 [勇往直前小组] 第三次作业byPuding

PudingUID：2364107

Argument 117

In the argument, the author concludes that they should increase the stock of home office machines at all Valu-Mart stores so that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores. To support his conclusion, he points out that Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past. In addition, he cite the result of a recent survey that over 70 percent of the respondents are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. At first glance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining the author’s reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.

First and foremost, the author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that the work-at-home trend will certainly brings the need of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. For example, it is most likely that what the officers need is more leisure time to communicate with their family. Therefore, the argument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibility.

Furthermore, unless the surveyor samples a sufficient number of officers they surveys and did so randomly across the whole area, the survey results are not convincing. In addition, the attitude of the respondents also influenced the persuasion of the survey report. If they were complaining about the busyness of life, the results given by the survey are unwarranted.

Last but no means least, the author’s conclusion that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores is questionable. Profit is a factor of not only revenue but also cost. It is possible that the cost of the new adding home office machines will offset, even outweigh its revenue. At the same time, some other unpredictable occurrences such as unfavorable economic conditions or the competition of other department will prevent office-supply departments from gaining as much profit as the author predicts.

To sum up, the arguer fails to substantiate his claim that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores through the increased stoke of home office machines, because the evidence in the analysis dose not lend strong support to what the author maintains. To make the argument more convincing, the author should provide more information about the increasing need for home office machines. In addition, the author should make more surveys to confirm the high-need product and make decision.


提纲：
Argument167 folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
1.混淆概念：失眠不等于容不容易入睡。
2.推论以研究为基础，但这只是初步理论研究，无法在医学上得出结论，因为这30人和3周均不足以说明问题。
3.即便以上成立，作者推理过程仍有误。
4.忽略他因：研究本身对志愿者有影响。志愿者三个星期里的睡眠变化与对环境的熟悉有关，第三个星期完全熟悉了，所以不紧张了。

Argument56: Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how the Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues. This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could only be used for life-size sculptures. It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found. In light of this development, collectors should expect the life-size sculptures to decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value.


1.无理假设人头和手的模型是用来做雕刻的。但是论者没有提供任何有关与这些被发现在模型有关的雕像。
2.论者没有提供资料证明小雕像与大雕像的用途创作者是否一样，因为这些都会使得两者之间存在风格差异，而不一定是因为模型的问题。
3.少有K的雕刻工具被发现出来，但这并不能说明K的工具很少，因为工具有可能是因各种原因被毁坏了，或者仅仅是考古学家还没有找到而已。
4.急于概括：就算这些模型是用来雕刻的，但并不能得出K的所有人体大小的雕像都是用这种方法制作出来的。
5.论者认为这个发现将使得大雕像价值下降，小雕像价值上升。但论者并没有提供任何资料证明用模型做的雕像就不值得研究。

192The following is a letter to the editor of the Roseville Gazette.

"Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in favor of merging the townships of Roseville and West Roseville are overwhelming. First, residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact when they need a service; for example, the police department in Roseville receives many calls from residents of West Roseville. This sort of confusion would be eliminated with the merger. Second, the savings in administrative costs would be enormous, since services would no longer be duplicated: we would have only one fire chief, one tax department, one mayor, and so on. And no jobs in city government would be lost—employees could simply be reassigned. Most importantly, the merger will undoubtedly attract business investments as it did when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago."
1.所举例子没有代表性。
2..开支不一定会节省。虽然工作是单份的，但会是庞大的。
3.人员重新分配。既然工作不再双份，必然岗位减少，需要员工减少。
4.错误类比，外推Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago.

120The following appeared in a health newsletter.

"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."
1.事故数量上升不能说明现在这个问题比以前严重。因为人口的增加，骑车的人增多，都可能使得相应的事故数目上升。
2.出事故是否与戴头盔有关，论者没有相关资料。首先论者对于戴头盔会使人更容易冒险的结论完全没有根据，他没有提供任何资料证明戴头盔的人都觉得这样很安全。其次论者也没有提供有多少戴头盔的人出了事故，如果出事故的人大多数都没有戴头盔，这样就不能证明戴头盔会使得容易出现事故。

woodmanUID：161906

In theargument, the author concludes that they should increase the stock of homeoffice machines at all Valu-Mart stores so that the office-supply departmentswill become the most profitable component of their stores. To support hisconclusion, he points out that Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in itsoffice-supply departments in the past. In addition, he cite the result of arecent survey that over 70 percent of the respondents are required to take morework home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. At firstglance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining theauthor’s reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument containsseveral facets that are questionable.开头太长了，精简一下
First and foremost, the author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption thatthe work-at-home trend will certainly brings the need of home office machinessuch as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines.However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. For example, it is most likely that what the officers needis more leisure time to communicate with their family. Therefore, theargument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibility.　例证太少啦，呵呵

Furthermore, unless the surveyor samples a sufficient number of officers theysurveys and did so randomly across the whole area, the survey results are notconvincing. In addition, the attitude of the respondents also influenced thepersuasion of the survey report. If they were complaining about the busyness oflife, the results given by the survey are unwarranted.这一段没有主旨句，最好是把观点浓缩到首句，别人一看就明白。
Last but no means least, the author’s conclusion that the office-supplydepartments will become the most profitable component of their stores isquestionable. Profit is a factor of not only revenue but also cost. It ispossible that the cost of the new adding home office machines will offset, evenoutweigh its revenue. At the same time, some other unpredictable occurrencessuch as unfavorable economic conditions or the competition of other departmentwill prevent office-supply departments from gaining as much profit as theauthor predicts.

To sum up, the arguer fails to substantiate his claim that the office-supplydepartments will become the most profitable component of their stores throughthe increased stoke of home office machines, because the evidence in theanalysis dose not lend strong support to what the author maintains. To make theargument more convincing, the author should provide more information about theincreasing need for home office machines. In addition, the author should make moresurveys to confirm the high-need product and make decision.
问题不大，呵呵，要增加例证。可以调整一下结构，增强逻辑性

提纲差不多啦，没问题。