argument117 『勇往直前小组』第三次作业

neycUID：2366606

题目：ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

In this analysis, the arguer claims that with taking advantage of the work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines, and increasing stock of office supplies at the same time, office-supply departments will solve the problem of impressive sales and become the most profitable component of the stores. To demonstrate the claim, the arguer provides a survey to convince us the trend of work-at-home and also suggests some concrete project for selling. Careful scrutiny of the evidence reveals several critical fallacies.

First of all, the arguer fails to provide the procedure of the survey. Therefore we have good reasons to doubt whether the survey is well conducted. Is the sample large enough and selected randomly? Are the respondents working on all kind of jobs and representative? Only if the arguer tells what procedure of the survey is used and gives answers to all questions above, will the conclusion that it is a trend to work at home be well verified.

Secondly, even granted the trend of work-at-home, the assumption that it will lead to an increasing requirement of home office machines is unwarranted. It is possible that the work which should be done at home is relatively simple assignment which makes these home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines not essential. There is also possibility that the consumers may already have adequate fallacies for work at home, and do not need to buy some new one.  Without ruling the possibilities above, the prediction of the possible increasing selling of home office machines is reckless.

Finally, even if that the consuming of the home office machines greatly increases, it tells little about whether office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of the stores. It is greatly possible that there may be other sellers which are also selling office fallacies attract most of the increasing consuming. Considering the possibility above, the selling of the office-supply department in Valu-Mart may not get out of the impressive situation. Even granted that the selling of the office-supply department has been improved, without taking into account the profit other department get, the conclusion that office-supply departments will become the most profitable is premature. Perhaps the profit of the office supply selling is very little, even with a tremendous amount of selling; the total profit may still far less than that of other component. It is also possible that, the former performance of the office-supply is so poor that even with great increasing in selling; it may still not the most profitable component in the stores.

To sum up, the arguer should tell the procedure of the survey to make the trend of home-at-work more convincing. Meanwhile, only if more evidence is provided, will the assumption that there will be a possible increasing of home office machines consuming be well reasoned. Additionally, more information about the selling conditions about not only the office-supply department but also the other components is needed to strengthen the soundness of the claim.

Argument167
1)        首先，研究的样本的总量太小而且涵盖范围没有说明，导致从研究中得出的结论可信度下降。
2)        其次，作者没能提供被研究者三个星期后的睡眠状态，所以不能肯定是否已经治愈了失眠。
3)        最后，作者没能建立起睡眠质量和薰衣草枕头之间的因果联系。

Arguement56
1)      首先，作者无理的通过最近发现的人体头和手的模具断定古代Kalinese艺术家是用真人人体模具来制作人体雕像
2)      其次，作者忽略了微缩塑像是抽象并且有不同风格并且未发现雕刻工具的其他原因
3)      最后，即使以上的论证都是被证明了的，没有充分的证据可以说明真人大小的雕塑价值的降低和微缩塑像价值的升高

Argument192
1）  首先，作者忽略了其他一些可以解决提供服务混乱的方法。
2）  其次，没有证据可以说明服务不再重复能减少管理开支。
3）  最后，作者没经证实的假设在Hamden和North Hamden中实施合并后带来的好处在Roseville中也能同样获得

Argument120
1）  首先，作者犯了concurrence的错误，没能建立起因果联系在戴头盔和自行车事故之间
2）  其次，没有证据表明戴头盔在事故的发生中没有保护作用

[ 本帖最后由 neyc 于 2007-7-23 19:52 编辑 ]