argument117 『勇往直前小组』第三次作业linshao

linshaoUID：2338229

ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
最近一次调查超过70％的回应者报告说他们被要求回家完成的工作量比以前多。由于Valu-Mart在过去并没有发现办公用品部销量的显著上升，我们应该利用这种在家办公的趋势，在所有Valu-Mart商店增加家庭办公机器比如打印机、小型复印机、碎纸机和传真机的存货。我们也将增加办公用品比如纸笔和钉书机的存货。通过这些变革，我们办公用品部将会成为我们商店中盈利最多的部门。

In this memo the statement draws a conclusion that Valu-Mart should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines and stock of office supplies. To support the assertion, the author cites a recent survey, suggesting that over 70% of the respondents reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. In addition, the author infers that Valu-Mart office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their store with these changes. Careful scrutiny, the argument contains several facets that are questionable.

In the first place, the arguer quotes a recent survey which is unconvinced. Unless the respondents of the survey are statistically significant in number and representative of all the consumers, any conclusion based on the survey is unreasonable. If respondents of the survey are those who are busier than the most others, or they just express their complaint, then the survey may be questionable.

Another problem of this the memo is that even assume that the survey is reliable, why the markets for the office machines and office supplies will expand? It is entirely possible that the work they would take to home do not need any office machines or office supplies. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the author can not justifiably conclude that there is an increasing market for office machines and office supplies.

Moreover, even concede that there is an expanding market for the office machines and office supplies, increasing the stock of home office machines is not equal they will get more profits. Since they increase the stock, they should pay more on stock charge, they need more space to arrange their goods. On the other aspect, the arguer asserts that their office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores is unfounded. Possibly, other departments will do better than the office-supply departments because all of them are working hard.

In sum, the memo is unsound as it stands. To better support it, the author should provide
us more information to prove that there will actually be more people take more work home and they need home office machines. To strengthen the memo, the arguer would have to provide evidence that increasing stores is the best way to improve profits and do some essential market research.


提纲：
ARGUMENT167 - A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.

一种治疗失眠的偏方--薰衣草花香，现在被证明是有效的。在一次最近的调查中，30名患有慢性失眠的志愿者在三周之内每晚都在一个受监视的控制室内睡在带薰衣草花香的枕头上。在第一周，志愿者继续服用他们常用的安眠药。他们睡得很沉但醒来时很累。在第二周，他们不服用药物。结果与前一周相比他们睡得不那么沉并且感觉更累。在第三周，他们睡得比前两周时间长而且更深。这表明薰衣草在短时间内治愈了失眠。

*偏方通常是一种在传统医药中常见的植物治疗形式，这些传统医药是在现代医药服务和科技出现之前发展起来的。

1．推论以研究为基础，但这还只是初步的研究，并不足以得出医学上的结论。因为30位以及三个星期都不足以说明问题。
2．第三个星期志愿者醒来以后的感觉论者没有提供。是比前两星期更加疲劳还是什么。事实上论者提到了志愿者在停药的第二个星期里睡眠非常不好，这有可能是第三个星期睡的时间长的主要原因，因为他们实在太累。所以没有醒来后的感觉作标准，无法评价志愿者的睡眠质量，因为无法知道熏衣草的作用。
3．研究本身对志愿者有影响。志愿者三个星期里的睡眠变化与对环境的熟悉有关，第三个星期完全熟悉了，所以不紧张了。

ARGUMENT56 - Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how the Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues. This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could only be used for life-size sculptures. It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found. In light of this development, collectors should expect the life-size sculptures to decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value.

收藏家很欣赏Kali岛出产的古代等身泥土雕像，但长期以来不清楚Kali的艺术家如何能够以如此高的精确度刻画人体。由于考古学家最近在Kali发现了人类头部和手的模具，我们现在可以得出结论：古代Kali艺术家使用真人的模子，而不是雕刻工具和技艺来塑造这些雕像。这一发现解释了为什么Kali的缩微雕像是抽象的而且风格迥异：模子只能被用于等身雕像。它同样也解释了为什么很少发现Kali的雕刻工具。由于有了这一研究进展，收藏家应预见到等身雕像的贬值以及缩微雕像的升值。

1．发现了人类头部和手的模具并不表示它们是用来做雕刻的。论者看来只是在猜测，因为他没有提供任何有关与这些被发现的模型有关的雕像。没有资料显示有雕像是根据这些模型做出来的。
2．论者认为小雕像与大雕像风格迥异，而且都很抽象，正是因为他们无法用人体做模型。但是论者没有提供资料证明小雕像与大雕像的创作者是否一样，因为这些都会使得两者之间存在风格差异，而不一定是因为模型的问题。
3．很少有K的雕刻工具被发现出来，但这并不能说明K的工具很少，人体是K的工具。因为工具有可能是因各种原因被毁坏了，或者仅仅是考古学家还没有找到而已。
4．就算这些模型是用来雕刻的，但并不能得出K的所有人体大小的雕像都是用这种方法制作出来的。毕竟被发现的也只是一些头部和手部的模型，这至少不能排除其它部位不用这种方式制作。
5．论者认为这个发现将使得大雕像价值下降，小雕像价值上升。但论者并没有提供任何资料证明用模型做的雕像就不值得研究，或是收藏家们对于人体模型很反感，或是他们对小雕像的兴趣有所增长。
ARGUMENT192 - The following is a letter to the editor of the Roseville Gazette.
"Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in favor of merging the townships of Roseville and West Roseville are overwhelming. First, residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact when they need a service; for example, the police department in Roseville receives many calls from residents of West Roseville. This sort of confusion would be eliminated with the merger. Second, the savings in administrative costs would be enormous, since services would no longer be duplicated: we would have only one fire chief, one tax department, one mayor, and so on. And no jobs in city government would be lost-employees could simply be reassigned. Most importantly, the merger will undoubtedly attract business investments as it did when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago."

尽管West Roseville的一些居持反对意见，支持合并Roseville和West Roseville的呼声还是占了上风。首先，两地区的居民经常搞不清在需要服务的时候应该和哪个政府联系；举例来说，Roseville的警署接到过很多West Roseville居的电话。这种混乱可以通过合并来消除。其次，管理开支将会得到很大节省，因为服务不再重复：我们将只有一个消防局，一个税务局，一个市长，以及其他等等。市政府的工作岗位并不会减少，雇员可以被重新委任。最重要的是，合并无疑会吸引更多的商务投资，就像Hamden和North Hamden在十年前合并时所发生的那样。

1．接电话的例子没有代表性，不能说明合并的必要性，而且其他解决的办法很简单。
2．开支不一定会节省。虽然工作是单份的，但会是庞大的。而且这样的后果是使机构更复杂，可能会降低工作效率。
3．人员重新分配。既然工作不再双份，必然岗位减少，需要员工减少。
4．Hamden和North Hamden合并的例子不能说明问题。时间不同，地点不同，没有可能比性。另外他们的投资吸引可能是因为经济的发展和其他措施，也许与合并没有关系。
ARGUMENT120 - The following appeared in a health newsletter.
"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."
一项为期十年的对于在骑自行车时戴头盔的作用的研究显示，10年前，所有骑车人中大约有35％报告说他们戴头盔，现在这个比例接近80％。然而另外一项调查显示在相同的十年期间，因骑车引起的事故数量增加了200％。这些结果说明骑车人因为戴着头盔而感到更安全，因而导致他们面临更大的危险。因此，为减少自行车事故中严重伤害的数量，政府应该更多地对人们加强自行车安全的教育，并提供鼓励或要求骑车人戴头盔的课程。
1．  事故数量上升不能说明现在这个问题比以前严重。因为人口的增加，骑车的人增多，都可能使得相应的事故数目上升。在这个问题上，也许看看事故率是否有上升会更有说服力。
2．出事故是否与戴头盔有关，论者没有相关资料。首先论者对于戴头盔会使人更容易冒险的结论完全没有根据，他没有提供任何资料证明戴头盔的人都觉得这样很安全。完全有可能戴头盔的人会比不戴的人更加小心。其次论者也没有提供有多少戴头盔的人出了事故，如果出事故的人大多数都没有戴头盔，这样就不能证明戴头盔会使得容易出现事故。
3．进行安全教育是必要的，但还是应该鼓励人们戴头盔。头盔是保护性措施，虽然它不能防止出现事故，但是能降低事故严重性。


[ 本帖最后由 linshao 于 2007-7-23 00:41 编辑 ]

neycUID：2366606

In this memo the statement draws a conclusion that Valu-Mart should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines and stock of office supplies. To support the assertion, the author cites a recent survey, suggesting that over 70% of the respondents reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. In addition, the author infers that Valu-Mart office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their store with these changes. Careful scrutiny, the argument contains several facets that are questionable.（驾驭语言的能力很强，真的，句子读起来就很顺）

In the first place, the arguer quotes a recent survey which is unconvinced. Unless the respondents of the survey are statistically significant in number and representative of all the consumers, any conclusion based on the survey is unreasonable. If respondents of the survey are those who are busier than the most others, or they just express their complaint, then the survey may be questionable.

Another problem of this the memo is that even assume that the survey is reliable, why the markets for the office machines and office supplies will expand? It is entirely possible that the work they would take to home do not need any office machines or office supplies. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the author can not justifiably conclude that there is an increasing market for office machines and office supplies.

Moreover, even concede that there is an expanding market for the office machines and office supplies, increasing the stock of home office machines is not equal they will get more profits. Since they increase the stock, they should pay more on stock charge, they need more space to arrange their goods. On the other aspect, the arguer asserts that their office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores is unfounded. Possibly, other departments will do better than the office-supply departments because all of them are working harder. （你这一段谈的利润问题很专业，尤其是库存的费用，赞,和别的部门比较时应该再展开说一说，不如库存那点那么有力度）

In sum, the memo is unsound as it stands. To better support it, the author should provide
us more information to prove that there will actually be more people take more work home and they need home office machines. To strengthen the memo, the arguer would have to provide evidence that increasing stores is the best way to improve profits and do some essential market research.

你的argument我觉得写得已经很好了，主要是语言很简洁，没有废话，显得比较自信。
要是我评分的话，客观的评有5分的水平了吧，呵呵，继续努力，向6分努力

strontium023UID：2316968

In this memo the statement draws a conclusion that Valu-Mart should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing  the stock of home office machines and stock of office supplies. To support the assertion, the author cites a recent survey, suggesting that over 70% of the respondents reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. In addition, the author infers that Valu-Mart office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their store with these changes.Careful scrutiny, the argument contains several facets that are questionable.

In the first place, the arguer quotes a recent survey which is unconvinced. Unless the respondents of the survey are statistically significant in number and representative of all the consumers, any conclusion based on the survey is unreasonable. If respondents of the survey are those who are busier than the most others, or they just express their complaint, then the survey may be questionable.

Another problem of this the memo is that even assume that the survey is reliable, why the markets for the office machines and office supplies will expand? It is entirely possible that the work they would take to home do not need any office machines or office supplies. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the author can not justifiably conclude that there is an increasing market for office machines and office supplies.

Moreover, even concede that there is an expanding market for the office machines and office supplies, increasing the stock of home office machines is not equal they will get more profits. Since they increase the stock, they should pay more on stock charge, they need more space to arrange their goods.

On the other aspect, the arguer asserts that their office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores is unfounded. Possibly, other departments will do better than the office-supply departments because all of them are working hard.

In sum, the memo is unsound as it stands. To better support it, the author should provide
us more information to prove that there will actually be more people take more work home and they need home office machines. To strengthen the memo, the arguer would have to provide evidence that increasing stores is the best way to improve profits and do some essential market research.(结尾能提出自己对作者的建议和要求。)
小结：作者的A 的整体某篇布局和固定语言的使用已经较为熟练，所有逻辑错误都点到了。恩恩,向你学习

linshaoUID：2338229

组长要狠拍啊！！

neycUID：2366606

你以为我不想拍啊，今天心情不好，就想找一篇猛拍~倒霉啊，看到你这篇了，只好继续郁闷。。。
你什么时候考作文？