Argument147 第六篇A by coalaxixi

coalaxixiUID: 2353397

The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

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In the argument, the arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind(WH) would increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites a recent survey in which videogame players indicated a preference for games with realistic graphics requiring the most up-to-date computers. The arguer then points out that WH has just introduced several such games and launched an extensive advertising campaign directed/aimed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. This argument rests on series of unreliable assumptions, and is therefore underused as it stands.

A threshold assumption upon which the conclusion relies is that people who is 10 to 25 years old most likely to play video games. The arguer fails to substantiate this crucial assumption. If the assumption is wrong, then the directed advertising campaign would not reach out the expected effect to increase WH's sales.

Even assuming the age-group of 10 to 25 indeed are most likely to play video games, the arguer relies on the additional assumption that they would like the games which provide lifelike graphics and require the most up-to-date computers. To support his assumption, the arguer provides a survey as evidence. However, the arguer presents no data about the respondents, such as their age, genders, raising the doubt of the representative of the respondents. Perhaps most of the respondents are middle-aged people with successful career. They enjoy the visual impact brought about by the most up-to-date computer very much after whole day's hard work and most importantly, they can afford the paid of such advanced computers. The huge differences between these two age groups will make the assumption rather dubious.

Even assuming 10-25 age-group like games with those features, the arguer fails to convince me that they will buy WH's games. Perhaps the games are designed to hard for them, or require rich life experience, even if they have some important features (lifelike graphics, require the most up-to-date computers), they will probably not popular among the 10-25 age-group. Besides, another important factor should be considered: people of this age-group are most dependent in economy and they are very likely still supervised by parents to focus on studies but not games. Either scenario would provide an alternative result to the sales.

To sum up, to persuade me that WH's sales will surely increase in the near future the arguer much supply clear evidence that video-game enthusiasts 10 to 25 years old would be interested in WH’s new games And that they could afford to buy them. To better assess the argument I would need a survey more relevant and reliable.   

[ 本帖最后由 lastangel 于 2007-7-25 01:48 编辑 ]

最後の使徒UID: 2257608

In the argument, the arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind(WH) would increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites a recent survey in which videogame players indicated a preference for games with realistic graphics requiring the most up-to-date computers. The arguer then points out that WH has just introduced several such games and launched an extensive advertising campaign directed/aimed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. This argument rests on series of unreliable assumptions, and is therefore underused as it stands.

A threshold assumption upon which the conclusion relies is that people who is 10 to 25 years old most likely to play video games. The arguer fails to substantiate this crucial assumption. If the assumption is wrong, then the directed advertising campaign would not reach out the expected effect to increase WH's sales. (笼统表达, 没有细节. 先说论证, 可能你的思路没有, 究其原因, 可能是你的背景知识问题, 现在游戏的确扩展到了很多不同的受众中, 比如WII的购买者很多都是工作以后的白领, 都在25岁以上, 还有日本那些OTAKU也都30多的大叔也有, 不过没有这种知识的话不影响发展出别的论点, 此时做点取舍, 把你想不出攻击论据的攻击点舍去就行了, 这种没有内容的段落对你的分数没有帮助. 其次是细节问题, 为什么would not reach out the expected effect? 根本没有说明原因, 提出广告针对的是这个年龄段的, 而未必他们最喜欢玩游戏, 才能证明你的论点, 而不是单纯的说, 没干这事就不能这样, 这种因果联系并不是显而易见的, 如果是的话也不用写ARGUMENT了.)

Even assuming the age-group of 10 to 25 indeed are most likely to play video games, the arguer relies on the additional assumption that they would like the games which provide lifelike graphics and require the most up-to-date computers. To support his assumption, the arguer provides a survey as evidence(which states ...author怎么用这个survey来证明这个假设了? ). However, the arguer presents no data about the respondents, such as their age, genders, raising the doubt of the representative of the respondents. Perhaps most of the respondents are middle-aged people with successful career. They enjoy the visual impact brought about by the most up-to-date computer very much after whole day's hard work and most importantly, they can afford the paid of such advanced computers. The huge differences between these two age groups will make the assumption rather dubious. (你这段的论证点看起来很怪, 因为作者的逻辑是 调查显示人们爱玩这类游戏+爱玩游戏的都是10到25岁的人+公司的广告指向10到25岁=>公司游戏会卖的好=>公司盈利会上升. 而你把第一个和第二个步骤放在一起说了, 把它们一起当成了一个assumption, 然后把survey归为这个的论据, 但作者自己并没有说过这个assumption, 也没说survey是为了证明这个的, 所以等于你的逻辑跳了一层. 当然在具体论证中因为你的角度选得比较好, 所以问题不大, 但主题句的表达让人看着有些晕, 如果把第一句逗号部分后面的句子改为they may not be interested in the type of games which the company is now advertising, merely based on a vague survey. 之后再论证目标人群和调查人群的样本差异问题, 会显得更清楚点.)

Even assuming 10-25 age-group like games with those features, the arguer fails to convince me that they will buy WH's games. Perhaps the games are designed to hard for them, or require rich life experience, even if they have some important features (lifelike graphics, require the most up-to-date computers), they will probably not popular among the 10-25 age-group.(这个它因举的非常唐突, 先说明很多因素都会影响到游戏的受欢迎程度, 仅仅调查显示哪个因素最有效是不能代表只有这个因素就够的, 游戏还需要很多其它的品质, 然后再举出它因, 过度就会比较平缓) Besides, another important factor should be considered: people of this age-group are most dependent in economy and they are very likely still supervised by parents to focus on studies but not games.(还有most advanced computers, 都可以说, 注意抽象总结:喜欢不代表会买. 单纯用一堆可能性攻击作者而不直接指出他的错误显得很表面化) Either scenario would provide an alternative result to the sales.

To sum up, to persuade me that WH's sales will surely increase in the near future the arguer much supply clear evidence that video-game enthusiasts 10 to 25 years old would be interested in WH’s new games And that they could afford to buy them. To better assess the argument I would need a survey more relevant and reliable.

总评: 总的来说思路还不错, 因为这道题比较难, 也不是典型题目, 所以可以发展出很个性化的论证思路, 先攻击哪个假设或论断, 如何组合作者的逻辑都是说得通的. 可惜的是第一个攻击点实在没有内容. 这种时候可以适当取舍, 毕竟这样一个无论据假设也可以被当作前提出来, 找不到论据的时候可以不批. 而题目还有别的错误, 比如这种游戏开发成本和销售关系, 卖的好也未必赚钱, 竞争的作用以及广告活动是否会有效, 其实错误是很多的, 可以再推敲下.
论证上缺乏点睛之笔, 虽然看下来也知道你的意思并显得有理有据, 但却不能第一时间知道你的论证方向, 要把论据读完才能搞清楚, 因此可以预先概括, 论后总结, 提升自己的论证层次.

coalaxixiUID: 2353397

哇，版主改的好认真啊！谢谢谢谢谢谢....
我一定更认真地修改完帖上来！

coalaxixiUID: 2353397

In the argument, the arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind(WH) would increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites a recent survey in which videogame players indicated a preference for games with realistic graphics requiring the most up-to-date computers. The arguer then points out that WH has just introduced several such games and launched an extensive advertising campaign directed/aimed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. This argument rests on series of unreliable assumptions, and is therefore underused as it stands.

A threshold assumption upon which the conclusion relies is that people who is 10 to 25 years old most likely to play video games. The arguer fails to substantiate this crucial assumption. In fact, nowadays, in the society replete with competition, more and more career people get fond of videogames -- from which they can escape the feel of complicated world -- especially those who work in IT companies. Playing videogames, as an effective way to relax, is no longer only popular among children as we thought before. Without accounting for these and other possible cases, the arguer cannot assume people 10 to 25 are most likely to play video games for granted. Accordingly, the arguer cannot draw any predication that WH’s advertising campaign aiming at this age group would work effectively.  

Even assuming the age-group of 10 to 25 indeed are most likely to play video games,they may not be interested in the type of games which the company is now advertising, merely based on a vague survey. However, the arguer presents no data about the respondents, such as their age, genders, raising the doubt of the representative of the respondents. Perhaps most of the respondents are middle-aged people with successful career. They enjoy the visual impact brought about by the most up-to-date computer very much after whole day's hard work and most importantly, they can afford the paid of such advanced computers. The huge differences between these two age groups will make the assumption rather dubious.

Even assuming 10-25 age-group like games with those features, the arguer fails to convince me that they will buy WH's games. Whether a game would become popular is contributed by many factors, and only with those important features is far not enough. For example, perhaps the games are designed to hard for them, or require rich life experience, even if they have some important features (lifelike graphics, require the most up-to-date computers), they will probably not popular among the 10-25 age-group. Besides, another important factor should be considered: people of this age-group are most dependent in economy and they are very likely still supervised by parents to focus on studies but not games, let alone are allowed to buy the most advanced computers for the games. Either scenario would provide an alternative result to the sales.

To sum up, to persuade me that WH's sales will surely increase in the near future the arguer much supply clear evidence that video-game enthusiasts 10 to 25 years old would be interested in WH’s new games And that they could afford to buy them. To better assess the argument I would need a survey more relevant and reliable.