Argument218 by 小破孩

小破孩UID: 2125288

Argument218
The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."

9:21-9:54 33min Words: 556
In the above argument, the arguer suggests to discontinue the production of action toys and focus on a new line for education toys in order to maintain profits. The statement seems reasonable at the first glance. However, the arguer fails to reveal the true reason for the declining sales of the action toys. Nor does the author provide persuasive analysis about the potential and the company's advantage in producing education toys.

First of all, whether the sales decline of Fierce Fighter (FF) toys are due to the concern about youth violence from parents is open to doubt. The mere fact of sales amount is insufficient to reflect either the popularity of FF toys or any hints about the trends of toys preference in the market. As a matter of fact, myriads of variables should be taken into consideration upon the sales of toys. Factors such as the price, quality and lifetime of the toys and the time they have been put into the market should not be neglected. Given the fact that FF had been the top seller for three years, it is highly likely that almost every boy have got such toy plane so that there is no extra room for any sales increase. It might also be the case that children have changed their tastes to other characters, such as the robots, which could change into any shapes as they like, or dinosaurs, which are undefeatable in wars against aliens. Either of the above scenarios, if true, would greatly undermine the arguer's suggestions to discontinue production on action toys.

Secondly, even if we concede that education toys are more popular than action toys, the argument rests on a gratuitous presumption that they would bring profits to the company. No information is provided related to parents' focus or required financial input for production of educational toys. Nor do we know the potential competitors, the market demand or the developing stage about such toys. Perhaps without much related experience, the company needs to hire new designer for the educational line. Or perhaps educational toys may develop almost parallel with the action toys. Since their sales have increased 200 percent last year, every child may already have their favorite educational toys. Thus without thorough analysis about the potential development of education toys, the conclusion to switch action toys to education toys is too hasty.

Moreover, even assuming more developing space for education toys, whether people are willing to buy products from Hyer-go needs further analysis. The growing average income of the family doesn't guarantee their corresponding increase investment on the toys. As a matter of fact, not all the families have children, and even smaller proportion of family have children requiring toys. No evidence is given to suggest that these families have similar level of average income and would proportionally pay more to buy children’s toys. Even if they would, there is no guarantee that they would choose the brand of Hyer-go. If other companies have already taken a large market share with excellent customers' evaluation, there would be little space left for Hyer-go Company. Without specific investigation upon the above aspects, hardly can we make any prediction about the fate of Hyper-go’s education toys.

Taken together, the above argument is not well reasoned as it stands. Unless given the underlying reasons for the declining sales of FF toys, the potential development of the education toys or the popularity of Hyper-go’s toys in the market, the arguer's advice cannot be adopted.

strokes7UID: 2262256

Argument218 by 小破孩

Argument218
The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."

9:21-9:54 33min Words: 556

In the above argument, the arguer suggests to discontinue the production of action toys and focus on a new line for education toys in order to maintain profits. The statement seems reasonable at the first glance. However, the arguer fails to reveal the true reason for the declining sales of the action toys. Nor does the author provide persuasive analysis about the potential and the company's advantage (company's potential and the advantage) in producing education toys.

First of all, whether the sales decline of Fierce Fighter (FF) toys are due to the concern about youth violence from parents is open to doubt. The mere fact of sales amount (amount’s decline) is insufficient to reflect either the popularity of FF toys or any hints about the trends of toys preference in the market. As a matter of fact, myriads of variables should be taken into consideration upon the sales of toys. Factors such as the price, quality and lifetime of the toys and the time they have been put into the market should not be neglected. Given the fact that FF had been the top seller for three years, it is highly likely that almost every boy have got such toy plane so that there is no extra room for any sales increase. It might also be the case that children have changed their tastes to other characters, such as the robots, which could change into any shapes as they like, or dinosaurs, which are undefeatable in wars against aliens. Either of the above scenarios, if true, would greatly undermine the arguer's suggestions to discontinue production on action toys.

这段的论述绝对够充分了，不过还要再看看下文才能说整体的结构是不是好，呵呵

Secondly, even if we concede that education toys are more popular (这个假设从何而来啊，作者只是说家长们关心教育，并没有说教育类玩具走俏) than action toys, the argument rests on a gratuitous presumption that they would bring profits to the company. No information is provided related to parents' focus or required financial input for production of educational toys. Nor do we know the potential competitors, the market demand or the developing stage about such toys. Perhaps without much related experience, the company needs to hire new designer for the educational line. Or perhaps educational toys may develop almost parallel with the action toys. Since their sales have increased 200 percent last year, every child may already have their favorite educational toys. Thus without thorough analysis about the potential development of education toys, the conclusion to switch action toys to education toys is too hasty.Moreover, even assuming more developing space for education toys, whether people are willing to buy products from Hyer-go needs further analysis. The growing average income of the family doesn't guarantee their corresponding increase investment on the toys. As a matter of fact, not all the families have children, and even smaller proportion of family have children requiring toys. No evidence is given to suggest that these families have similar level of average income and would proportionally pay more to buy children’s toys. (我觉得以上观点说的不是很合适噢。如果他们都不买玩具，那连那种飞机玩具也不要做了……) Even if they would, there is no guarantee that they would choose the brand of Hyer-go. If other companies have already taken a large market share with excellent customers' evaluation, there would be little space left for Hyer-go Company. Without specific investigation upon the above aspects, hardly can we make any prediction about the fate of Hyper-go’s education toys.

Taken together, the above argument is not well reasoned as it stands. Unless given the underlying reasons for the declining sales of FF toys, the potential development of the education toys or the popularity of Hyper-go’s toys in the market, the arguer's advice cannot be adopted.

我觉得2，3两个Body的攻击有点纠缠不清的感觉，我建议这篇的写法还是

B1 我们销量的下降代表这类玩具不行么？可能是因为我们做的不好

B2 即时这类玩具不行了，教育类的就好么？重视教育不等于要买教育玩具；对方成功不一定因为加入了教育因素，重点可能还是玩具做得好，精致

B3 即时教育类的玩具走俏，我们做就能获益么？竞争，利润……

[ 本帖最后由 strokes7 于 2007-7-28 16:41 编辑 ]

iq28UID: 2152875

Argument218
The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."

9:21-9:54 33min Words: 556
In the above argument, the arguer suggests to discontinue the production of action toys and focus on a new line for education toys in order to maintain profits. The statement seems reasonable at the first glance. However, the arguer fails to reveal the true reason for the declining sales of the action toys. Nor does the author provide persuasive analysis about the potential and the company's advantage in producing education toys.

First of all, whether the sales decline of Fierce Fighter (FF) toys are due to the concern about youth violence from parents is open to doubt. （good beginning。）The mere fact of sales amount is insufficient to reflect either the popularity of FF toys or any hints about the trends of toys preference in the market. （trends的看法同意，但是销量大幅下降为何不能说明它不流行了？很奇怪。）As a matter of fact, myriads of variables should be taken into consideration upon the sales of toys. Factors such as the price, quality and lifetime of the toys and the time they have been put into the market should not be neglected. （没看出来这些因素怎么能帮助解释销量大幅下降不能代表unpopularity。）Given the fact that FF had been the top seller for three years, （omgomg，你前面攻击的难道是FF原来就不是top seller么？。。。基本完全看不出来。。。你段落开头不是要攻击销量下降的原因不是家长的担忧么？？）it is highly likely that almost every boy have got such toy plane so that there is no extra room for any sales increase. It might also be the case that children have changed their tastes to other characters, such as the robots, which could change into any shapes as they like, or dinosaurs, which are undefeatable in wars against aliens. Either of the above scenarios, if true, would greatly undermine the arguer's suggestions to discontinue production on action toys. （如果市场饱和了，儿童的兴趣改变了，尽管不是作者说的原因导致了FF的popularity的下降，但是仍然不discontinue production such toys明显是rediculous的。。。第一段很乱，都不知道lz到底想攻击作者思路的哪一个环节。）

Secondly, even if we concede that education toys are more popular than action toys, （同stroke7意见） the argument rests on a gratuitous presumption that they would bring profits to the company. No information is provided related to parents' focus or required financial input for production of educational toys. （这句话抽了段首句子一个耳光）Nor do we know the potential competitors, the market demand or the developing stage about such toys. （为什么不直接提到材料中已经获得成功公司的威胁呢？）Perhaps without much related experience, the company needs to hire new designer for the educational line. （可以和前面一点联合在一起说）Or perhaps educational toys may develop almost parallel with the action toys. （无厘头的无根据原因，不如前面的好）Since their sales have increased 200 percent last year, （这个their是教育玩具，请在句子中指代明确）every child may already have their favorite educational toys. Thus without thorough analysis about the potential development of education toys, the conclusion to switch action toys to education toys is too hasty.（ 内部例子之间略微有点混乱，但远强于上一个段落）

Moreover, even assuming more developing space for education toys, whether people are willing to buy products from Hyer-go needs further analysis. （和上一段落前面的攻击点重合）The growing average income of the family doesn't guarantee their corresponding increase investment on the toys. As a matter of fact, not all the families have children, and even smaller proportion of family have children requiring toys. No evidence is given to suggest that these families have similar level of average income and would proportionally pay more to buy children’s toys. （精彩）Even if they would, there is no guarantee that they would choose the brand of Hyer-go. If other companies have already taken a large market share with excellent customers' evaluation, there would be little space left for Hyer-go Company. Without specific investigation upon the above aspects, hardly can we make any prediction about the fate of Hyper-go’s education toys.

Taken together, the above argument is not well reasoned as it stands. Unless given the underlying reasons for the declining sales of FF toys, the potential development of the education toys or the popularity of Hyper-go’s toys in the market, the arguer's advice cannot be adopted.

lz对于单个错误点攻击的功力还是可以的，从后两个段落能看出来。但是第一个主体段实在太混乱。另外，第二第三个主体段落之间层次最好拉开一点，有点重合。
加油;)