argument45 『勇往直前小组』第五次作业linshao

linshaoUID：2338229

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。

In this argument, the author concludes that the decline in artic deer populations is caused by the global warming trends. However, after scrutinizing the evidence the author provides, we can find that this argument is unconvincing for several reasons.

In the first place, the author unfairly assumes that the amount of deer is declining by the only mere fact from local hunters report. However, the local hunters cannot indicate the true population of the deer. Perhaps these hunters cannot kill more deer, and linked this to the decline of deer populations. The active range, the hurting habit and the hurting time maybe changed for some reasons, or the deer active time or range changed either. For the limited range the hurters move around, their reports cannot represent the true amount of deer. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot get any conclusion about the populations of deer.

Furthermore, even the deer population declines, the author's viewpoint that the decline is caused by lacking of food is unsound.  There is no evidence to demonstrate that. It is no information about the death reason of the deer. It is highly possible that the decline is caused by the over hunting. Or maybe there is a plague among deer. Even granted the decline were caused by the scant of food, it is even possible that food chain was destroyed by the pollution in the sea which led the plants are harmful to deer's health, or plants are dead for large wide. Such alternatives, if true, will strongly undermine the author's claim.

Moreover, no evidence can show that the global warming trends contribute to the decline. Common sense tells us that global warming is insufficient to indicate the temperature change of the local place. As we know, the arctic region may have less greenhouse gas, without the local data about the temperature, we can not get any conclusion related to the warming trends. Besides, even the temperature rise in local place, it is still scant to prove that there will be a population decline. There is no evidence to show that the migration patterns are severely impacted by the melting of the frozen sea. Unless the author gives us the evidence to show that the islands are separated by the sea for its covered ice all melted, or no any ice way available for the deer to migrate, we can not be persuaded that the large amount death of deer are caused by the warming temperature.

In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To better support it , the author should provide more information about the reliable  population of the deer, and more information about the local temperature. To strengthen it, the author should also refer us the main death reason of the deer and the plants situation. The situation of the ice covering the sea will be useful to make sure the reason of decline in deer population.

提纲:
ARGUMENT4 - The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

在本市的两家最大的房地产经纪公司--Adams Realty和Fitch Realty--之中，Adams显然更优秀一些。Adams有40名房地产经纪人，而Fitch只有25个，且很多是兼职工作。而且，Adams去年的收入是Fitch的两倍，其平均房价为$168000，而Fitch仅为$144000。在Adams销售的房屋卖得也更快：十年前，我把我的房产交给Fitch，它用了四个多月才卖出去；去年，我在Adams卖了另一处房产，仅用一个月就售出了。因此，要想让你的房产卖的更快更好，你应该选择Adams。

1.作者没有说明Adams的详细情况。他虽然有40名房地产经纪人，但是否都是兼职，此外，Adams是否经营的房子和Fitch一样，可能经营的是豪华的房子，可能168,000算便宜的好房子，而144,000是贵的差房子

2.作者没有足够的信息说明Adams买房子比Fitch慢，可能是季节不同

3.其他因素：收入是两倍不一定利润高，可能Fitch的经营情况更好；没有考虑费用是否相同

ARGUMENT185 - The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment building to its manager.
"One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of Sunnyside Towers were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately 1/3 of its original force. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, restricting water flow throughout all the 20 floors of Sunnyside Towers will increase our profits further."

一个月前，Sunnyside塔楼最低的五层的所有淋浴喷头被调节成水压只有以前的大约三分之一。尽管在调节之后用水量的确切读数还没有出来，但这种变革显然将为Sunnyside公司节省大量的花费，因为公司必须每月为所用的水付费。除了关于低水压的几起投诉，在调节之后没有发生关于淋浴喷头的问题的报告。显然，在Sunnyside塔楼所有的20层都限制水压将会增加我们未来的利润。

1．既然还不知道具体的指数就不排除用水量上升的可能。因为水流变小，用水时间就会加长。另外由于水压的冲洗作用没了，这种时间上的补偿很有可能会特别长。
2．投诉少，可能因为只是最低的五层降低了水压，楼层低所以没什么感觉，如果20层全部限制水压，可能楼顶没水了，投诉少不了；
3．节水根本不能增加我们未来的利润，只能说是一定程度上节约了成本，有交易才有利润啊。

ARGUMENT129 - The following appeared in the Sherwood Times newspaper.
"A recent study reported that pet owners have longer, healthier lives on average than do people who own no pets. Specifically, dog owners tend to have a lower incidence of heart disease. In light of these findings, Sherwood Hospital should form a partnership with Sherwood Animal Shelter to institute an 'adopt-a-dog' program. The program would encourage dog ownership for patients recovering from heart disease, which will help reduce medical costs by reducing the number of these patients needing ongoing treatment. In addition, the publicity about the program will encourage more people to adopt pets from the shelter, which will reduce the risk of heart disease in the general population."
一项最近的研究报告说养宠物的人平均而言比不养宠物的人活得更长更健康。特别是，养狗的人心脏病发病率更低。根据这些发现，Sherwood医院应该和Sherwood动物收养所合作建立一个"收养狗"的计划。这一计划将会鼓励正在治疗心脏病的患者养狗，这将通过减少这些患者接受治疗的次数而减少医疗费用。而且，对于这一计划的宣传将鼓励更多的人从收养所领养宠物，这将减少整体人群患心脏病的危险。
1．收养狗能降低心脏病或是帮助康复。论者没有提供任何资料直接证明收养宠物对身体有什么样的好处，尤其是收养狗是否能帮助降低心脏病发生。要知道这是比较难以让人置信的，考虑到要多担心宠物，这是有可能增加人们心理压力的。
2．论据引用最近一项研究，但研究仅说有狗的人中得心脏病的人少，但并没说养狗使得人们患心脏病少。另外这项研究也存在一些值得怀疑的地方。首先，没有提供关于宠物主人的其他特征，比如年龄、职业、性别我们不能判断这项研究是否有代表性。其次，研究没有排除其他可能降低发病的可能，比如养宠物的人是否经济条件好，生活比较悠闲等等这些都会影响健康。要知道，有心情有能力关心宠物的人，一般都已经把自己照顾得很好了。
3．即使能够帮助心脏病人康复，医药费也不一定降低。比如收养所的宠物身上很可能带有细菌，它们会把病菌传染给病人，这样其它疾病的增多使得医药费不一定降低。同样，对这项工程的宣传也不一定会让更多的人去收养所收养宠物。有人不愿意养宠物，所以普遍下降不被保证
4．论者应该再进一步提供关于宠物如何或为什么可以帮助人们健康的资料，这样我们才能考虑是否应该开展这样的活动。
ARGUMENT212 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the new president of the Patriot car manufacturing company.
"In the past, the body styles of Patriot cars have been old-fashioned, and our cars have not sold as well as have our competitors' cars. But now, since many regions in this country report rapid increases in the numbers of newly licensed drivers, we should be able to increase our share of the market by selling cars to this growing population. Thus, we should discontinue our oldest models and concentrate instead on manufacturing sporty cars. We can also improve the success of our marketing campaigns by switching our advertising to the Youth Advertising agency, which has successfully promoted the country's leading soft drink."
1．运动型轿车会有市场。没有直接证据证明，新拿驾照的人喜欢运动型车。而且运动型车也有新款和旧款。
2．新拿驾照的人会买车。没有直接证据证明。他们可能借、买旧车以及租车。
3．Y广告推销成功了饮料，但他们可能不了解汽车市场。
4．尽管没有对手卖得好，旧款车不一定就销量就不行。而且不一定是款型的问题，性能，舒适以及价格都有可能。而且销售成功，广告只是一个因素。


[ 本帖最后由 linshao 于 2007-7-25 01:05 编辑 ]

高加索UID：2246937

In this argument, the author concludes that the decline in artic deer populations is caused by the global warming trends. However, after scrutinizing the evidence the author provides, we can find that this argument is unconvincing for several reasons.

In the first place, the author unfairly assumes that the amount of deer is declining by the only mere fact from local hunters report. However, the local hunters cannot indicate the true population of the deer（加一个让步词较好，加个may之类的）. Perhaps these hunters cannot kill more deer, and linked this to the decline of deer populations. The active range, the hurting habit and the hurting time maybe changed for some reasons, or the deer active time or range changed either. For the limited range the hurters move around, their reports cannot represent the true amount of deer. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot get any conclusion about the populations of deer.

Furthermore, even the deer population declines, the author's viewpoint that the decline is caused by lacking of food is unsound（这个地方稍微显得有一点突兀，因为原文中说的是无法迁移，实际上也就是食物缺乏，但是直接说食物缺乏可能就是有点思维跳跃，个人感觉再连一下比较好）.  There is no evidence to demonstrate that. It is no information about the death reason of the deer. It is highly possible that the decline is caused by the over hunting. Or maybe there is a plague among deer. Even granted the decline were caused by the scant of food, it is even possible that food chain was destroyed by the pollution in the sea which led the plants are harmful to deer's health, or plants are dead for large wide. Such alternatives, if true, will strongly undermine the author's claim.（句子不错，很好）

Moreover, no evidence can show that the global warming trends contribute to the decline. Common sense tells us that global warming is insufficient to indicate the temperature change of the local place. As we know, the arctic region may have less greenhouse gas, without the local data about the temperature, we can not get any conclusion related to the warming trends. （挺专业的论证，我之前不知道温室气体集中位置，长知识了，呵呵）Besides, even the temperature rise in local place, it is still scant to prove that there will be a population decline. There is no evidence to show that the migration patterns are severely impacted by the melting of the frozen sea. Unless the author gives us the evidence to show that the islands are separated by the sea for its covered ice all melted, or no any ice way available for the deer to migrate, we can not be persuaded that the large amount death of deer are caused by the warming temperature.

In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To better support it , the author should provide more information about the reliable  population of the deer, and more information about the local temperature. To strengthen it, the author should also refer us the main death reason of the deer and the plants situation. The situation of the ice covering the sea will be useful to make sure the reason of decline in deer population.（结尾段写得非常好，值得学习）

这篇argue感觉挺难写的，我当时以为那个猎人对鹿群数量的断定是客观的呢，后来又看了一下，结果看错了，: (
加油~

[ 本帖最后由 高加索 于 2007-7-25 17:36 编辑 ]

strontium023UID：2316968

In this argument, the author concludes that the decline in artic deer populations is caused by the global warming trends. However, after scrutinizing(好) the evidence the author provides, we can find that this argument is unconvincing for several reasons.(开头很简洁.)

In the first place, the author unfairly assumes that the amount of deer is declining by the only mere fact from local hunters report. However, the local hunters cannot indicate the true population of the deer.(这句话我觉得说得太绝对了,应该加个may之类的.) Perhaps these hunters cannot kill more deer, and linked this to the decline of deer populations. The active range, the hurting habit and the hurting time maybe changed for some reasons, or the deer active time or range changed either.(这几点考虑得好,赞一下) For the limited range the hurters move around, their reports cannot represent the true amount of deer. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot get any conclusion about the populations of deer.

Furthermore, even the deer population declines, the author's viewpoint that the decline is caused by lacking of food is unsound.  There is no evidence to demonstrate that. It is no information about the death reason of the deer. It is highly possible that the decline is caused by the over hunting. Or maybe there is a plague(好词啊,组长用的deadly virus,都很好,呵呵) among deer. Even granted the decline were caused by the scant(又学一招) of food, it is even possible that food chain was destroyed by the pollution in the sea which led the plants are harmful to deer's health, or plants are dead for large wide. Such alternatives, if true, will strongly undermine the author's claim.

Moreover, no evidence can show that the global warming trends contribute to the decline. Common sense tells us that global warming is insufficient to indicate the temperature change of the local place.(这句不错啊.) As we know, the arctic region may have less greenhouse gas, without the local data about the temperature, we can not get any conclusion related to the warming trends.(这个引用好好哦,moving,多年没碰过生物了,早忘了greenhouse gas之类之类的了) Besides, even(另一个让步)the temperature rise in local place, it is still scant to prove that there will be a population decline. There is no evidence to show that the migration patterns are severely impacted by the melting of the frozen sea. Unless the author gives us the evidence to show that the islands are separated by the sea for its covered ice all melted, or no any ice way available for the deer to migrate, we can not be persuaded that the large amount death of deer are caused by the warming temperature.

In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To better support it , the author should provide more information about the reliable  population of the deer, and more information about the local temperature. To strengthen it, the author should also refer us the main death reason of the deer and the plants situation. The situation of the ice covering the sea will be useful to make sure the reason of decline in deer population.
小结:今天有很多亮点哦,把我都闪晕了,嘿嘿.赞一个,继续加油,很有创意哦!

strontium023UID：2316968

L感觉上一直是最努力,最认真的孩子,呵呵,赞一个.不管在A还是I上都很认真的翻译和列很详细的提纲,值得学习,赞一个!加油!:loveliness: