Argument45 [勇往直前小组]第五次作业ByPuding

PudingUID：2364107

Argument45:  "Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


In the argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the increasing temperature, because warm weather makes the ice on the island melt away and the deer unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support his conclusion, he cite the result of a recent report from hunters that the deer populations are declining. In addition, he points out that this trend coincides with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. At first glance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining the author’s reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.

First and foremost, the report presented by hunters that the population of deer is declining is not credible. It is highly possible that the hunters considered the decline of the deer just because it was hard for them to hunt for deer. The population of deer might not decrease. In addition, the time, area and habits of their hunting may also influence on whether they would see a deer, so the report of the hunter that the population of deer id declining is unreliable.

Even assuming that the hunter’s report that the population of deer is declining is believable, the author cannot relate it with the increasing temperature. The argument observes a correlation between recent global warming trends and the decreasing deer population, then conclude that the former is the cause of the latter. However, on evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption.

Even though the decreasing deer population is actually related to increasing temperature, the author falsely assumes that the global weather applies equally to this area. Yet this might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons. Perhaps the temperature other areas grew rapidly thus cause the global warming, yet the temperature of this area might remain the same, even decreased. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude that it is the global warming that causes the decreasing deer population.

Even assuming that the warm weather caused by global warming made the ice melted and influenced numbers of deer, the author makes a hasty generalization that it was because the deer were unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. He fails to account for other possible causes, such as the excess hunting for deer, or the wide lacking for food. These factors may also cause the decreasing number of deer.

To sum up, the arguer fails to substantiate his claim that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the increasing temperature, because the evidence in the analysis dose not lends strong support to what the author maintains. To make this argument more convincing, the author should make more surveys on the change or the number of the deer, and whether the else factors that frightens the environment of deer exist.

提纲：
A4:
1.       论断很武断。找好的代理公司并一定能保证卖房快，房价好。房子本身的特点是最重要的。 ·
2.       论断提供的证据不足以说明A更好。年收入高，但员工多，平均下来很可能工作效率低。而 平均价格也没有说服力，大笼统，房子分类。 ·
3.       本人的经历忽视了一个很重要的问题，九年的时间，不仅房地产业会有很大变化，社会变化也会很大。科技的发展，社会需求的变化。另外他两处房子的差别。
4.       结论：论断看起来似乎很有条理，证据也很多。但结论却很武断，也很不工平。要评价两家公司的业绩，除了年收外还应该包括很多内容比如工作效率，对市场的了解等等。而要想更快更好地卖出房子，不仅要找一个合适的房产公司，还需要给自己的房子定好位。

A185
1.       前提，是否节水了。既然还不知道具体的指数就不排除用水量上升的可能。因为水流变小，用水时间就会加长。另外由于水压的冲洗作用没了，这种时间上的补偿很有可能会特别长。
2.       前提，没人抱怨。首先刚一个月就有了抱怨。其次楼层越高对水压要求越到。第三楼上的人可能特殊，他们用水特别多，特别喜欢大流量的洗澡。时间长必然引起楼主不高兴。
3.       结论：利润，收入得靠卖房，有可能是租房，水费只是其中很小一部分成本。

A129
1.       不一定成立的前提，收养狗能降低心脏病或是帮助康复。论者没有提供任何资料直接证明收养宠物对身体有什么样的好处，尤其是收养狗是否能帮助降低心脏病发生。要知道这是比较难以让人置信的，考虑到要多担心宠物，这是有可能增加人们心理压力的。 ·
2.       论据不足信，论据引用最近一项研究，但研究仅说有狗的人中得心脏病的人少，但并没说养够使得人们患心脏病少。另外这项研究也存在一些值得怀疑的地方。首先，没有提供关于宠物主人的其他特征，比如年龄、职业、性别我们不能判断这项研究是否有代表性。其次，研究没有排除其他可能降低发病的可能，比如养宠物的人是否经济条件好，生活比较悠闲等等这些都会影响健康。要知道，有心情有能力关心宠物的人，一般都已经把自己照顾得很好了。 ·
3.       结论，即使能够帮助心脏病人康复，医药费也不一定降低。比如收养所的宠物身上很可能带有细菌，它们会把病菌传染给病人，这样其它疾病的增多使得医药费不一定降低。同样，对这项工程的宣传也不一定会让更多的人去收养所收养宠物。有人不愿意养宠物，所以普遍下降不被保证。
4.       结论：论者应该再进一步提供关于宠物如何或为什么可以帮助人们健康的资料，这样我们才能考虑是否应该开展这样的活动。

A212
1.       前提：运动型轿车会有市场。没有直接证据证明，新拿驾照的人喜欢运动型车。而且运动型车也有新款和旧款。 ·
2.       前提，新拿驾照的人会买车。没有直接证据证明。他们可能借、买旧车以及租车。 ·
3.       前提：Y广告推销成功了饮料，但他们可能不了解汽车市场。 ·
4.       结论：尽管没有对手卖得好，旧款车不一定就销量就不行。而且不一定是款型的问题，性能，舒适以及价格都有可能。而且销售成功，广告只是一个因素。



[ 本帖最后由 Puding 于 2007-7-25 19:56 编辑 ]

sweetbettyUID：2359460

In the argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the increasing temperature, because warm weather makes the ice on the island melt away and the deer unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support his conclusion, he cites the result of a recent report from hunters that the deer populations are declining. In addition, he points out that this trend coincides with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. At first glance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining the author’s reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.First and foremost, the report presented by hunters that the population of deer is declining is not credible. It is highly possible that the hunters considered the decline of the deer just because it was hard for them to hunt for deer. The population of deer might not decrease. In addition, the time, area and habits of their hunting may also influence on whether they would see a deer, so the report of the hunter that the population of deer is declining is unreliable.Even assuming that the hunter’s report that the population of deer is declining is believable, the author cannot relate it with the increasing temperature. The argument observes a correlation between recent global warming trends and the decreasing deer population, then concludes that the former is the cause of the latter. However, on evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. (可以再具体些比如其他一些影响的因数是哪些呢？)Even though the decreasing deer population is actually related to increasing temperature, the author falsely assumes that the global weather applies equally to this area. Yet this might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons. Perhaps the temperature other areas grew rapidly thus cause the global warming, yet the temperature of this area might remain the same, even decreased. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude that it is the global warming that causes the decreasing deer population.Even assuming that the warm weather caused by global warming made the ice melted and influenced numbers of deer, the author makes a hasty generalization that it was because the deer were unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. He fails to account for other possible causes, such as the excess hunting for deer, or the wide lacking for food. These factors may also cause the decreasing number of deer.To sum up, the arguer fails to substantiate his claim that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the increasing temperature, because the evidence in the analysis dose not lends strong support to what the author maintains. To make this argument more convincing, the author should make more surveys on the change or the number of the deer, and whether the else factors that frightens the environment of deer exist.
总体来说文章的逻辑很好层层深入但是我觉得可以把每个方面再稍微深入一些会更好

joyceningUID：2314914

下载一下吧