Argument45 [勇往直前小组] 第五次作业

neycUID：2366606

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

In this editorial, the arguer concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is caused by deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support this conclusion, the arguer provides the evidence that the reports from local hunters which claims the declining of arctic deer coincide with recent global warming trends which have caused the sea ice to melt. This argument is flawed in several critical respects.

First of all, the assumption that the recent global warming trends necessarily result in the incapability of deer to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea is unwarranted. Possibly, the climate of the arctic area is not warm enough to lead to a serious melting of the sea ice. It is also possible that even if the sea ice in arctic area is partly melted, the ice on the age-old migration patterns may not been totally destroyed, and still could be traveled across. Lacking of the information, we can not be convinced the necessary causal relationship between the recent global warming trends and the deer's abandoning of the age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Secondly, the arguer fails to take into account the other factors which may also be the explanation of the declining of the deer population. It is greatly possible that the over-hunting of the local hunters leads to the decreasing amount of arctic deer. There is also possibility that the plants as the main food of arctic deer may be dieing out for the changing of the climate, and therefore a lot of arctic deer starve to death. Perhaps, the decease of the deer population is due to the spreading of some deadly virus in the ethnic group of arctic deer. Without ruling out the above possibilities, the argument seems to be groundless.

To sum up, the argue should provide more evidence to demonstrate the assumption that recent global warming trends necessarily leads to the incapability of the deer to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. Meanwhile, only if the arguer takes into account the other alternatives, will this argument be more reasonable.

Argue4
1）  Adams的经纪人的信息没有被提供，是否同样有兼职的情况没有被提供。同时Adams的售价高于Fitch的售价不足以说明Adams更优秀，可能Adams善于出售高价房，而Fitch相对来说更善于出售低价房
2）  作者的亲身经历不能说明Adams更优秀，因为两次房子的时间和房子的质量可能导致出售时间的长短不同
3）  卖房者应该根据自己房子的实际情况做出选择，而不是只限于相信作者亲身经历而得出的结论，因为具体情况可能有差异

Argue185
1）  作者无理的假设这种变化将为公司节省大量的花费，可能使用水的使用时间变长了，并没有导致使用水量的减少
2）  作者忽略了除了几起诉讼以外这种变革可能导致的负面影响
3）  其他楼层的情况是否和最低的五层相同，还值得怀疑

Argue129
1)      作者并没有建立起让人信服的因果联系在养狗和治疗心脏病之间。
2)      患者接受治疗的次数减少并不一定意味着医疗费用的降低。可能在养狗的时候容易患上其他的疾病而抵消了因治疗心脏病而减少的费用
3)      作者没有考虑其他可能的养狗带来的负面影响，比如给人带来压力，狗可能还会因攻击人而给人带来伤害

Argue212
1）  作者的结论建立在新获得驾照的人一定会买新车的这一未经证实的假设上
2）  就算买车，新获得驾照的人也不一定会买运动型汽车
3）  Youth在推销Soft drink时获得成功不一定也会在推销汽车时取得成功

linshaoUID：2338229

In this editorial, the arguer concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is caused by deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support this conclusion, the arguer provides the evidence that the reports from local hunters which claims the declining of arctic deer coincide with recent global warming trends which have caused the sea ice to melt. This argument is flawed in several critical respects.

First of all, the assumption that the recent global warming trends necessarily result in the incapability of deer to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea is unwarranted. Possibly, the climate of the arctic area is not warm enough to lead to a serious melting of the sea ice. It is also possible that even if the sea ice in arctic area is partly melted, the ice on the age-old migration patterns may not been totally destroyed, and still could be traveled across. Lacking of the information, we can not be convinced the necessary causal relationship between the recent global warming trends and the deer's abandoning of the age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
原因分析也很到位了！语言流畅！
Secondly, the arguer fails to take into account the other factors which may also be the explanation of the declining of the deer population. It is greatly possible that the over-hunting of the local hunters leads to the decreasing amount of arctic deer. There is also possibility that the plants as the main food of arctic deer may be dieing out for the changing of the climate, and therefore a lot of arctic deer starve to death. Perhaps, the decease of the deer population is due to the spreading of some deadly virus in the ethnic group of arctic deer. Without ruling out the above possibilities, the argument seems to be groundless.两个主要错误也都找到了！只是对猎人的报告没有分析，显得字数少了点！
To sum up, the argue should provide more evidence to demonstrate the assumption that recent global warming trends necessarily leads to the incapability of the deer to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. Meanwhile, only if the arguer takes into account the other alternatives, will this argument be more reasonable.
虽然字数少了点，但是这个A的内容本来也写不了多少。
总的来说，组长的A已经非常成熟了，语言也非常严谨了！

[ 本帖最后由 linshao 于 2007-7-25 16:27 编辑 ]

strontium023UID：2316968

In this editorial, the arguer concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is caused by deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support this conclusion, the arguer provides the evidence that the reports from local hunters which claims the declining of arctic deer coincide with recent global warming trends which have caused the sea ice to melt. This argument is flawed in several critical respects.(觉得组长第一段挺清晰的.好.)

First of all, the assumption that the recent global warming trends necessarily result in the incapability of deer to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea is unwarranted. Possibly, the climate of the arctic area is not warm enough to lead to a serious melting of the sea ice. It is also possible that even if the sea ice in arctic area is partly melted, the ice on the age-old migration patterns may not been totally destroyed, and still could be traveled across. Lacking of the information, we can not be convinced the necessary causal relationship between the recent global warming trends and the deer's abandoning of the age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. (感觉这段有很多新观点可以参考,呵呵,)

Secondly, the arguer fails to take into account the other factors which may also be the explanation of the declining of the deer population. It is greatly possible that the over-hunting of the local hunters leads to the decreasing amount of arctic deer. There is also possibility that the plants as the main food of arctic deer may be dieing out for the changing of the climate, and therefore a lot of arctic deer starve to death. Perhaps, the decease of the deer population is due to the spreading of some deadly virus in the ethnic group of arctic deer. Without ruling out the above possibilities, the argument seems to be groundless.

To sum up, the arguer should provide more evidence to demonstrate the assumption that recent global warming trends necessarily leads to the incapability of the deer to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. Meanwhile, only if the arguer takes into account the other alternatives, will this argument be more reasonable.
小结:感觉组长的语言是越来越纯熟了.今天的作文确实短了一点点,如果再驳一个逻辑错误的话会更好一些.恩,现在限时情况怎么样拉?另外,头晕好些了吗?要注意休息,劳逸结合哦.