argument47 『勇往直前小组』第七次作业linshao

linshaoUID：2338229

ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

研究历史上气候变化的学者发现在六世纪中叶，地球突然变冷了很多。尽管那个时期很少有历史记录被保存下来，一些在亚洲和欧洲所发现的记录提到了太阳变暗和极度的寒冷。要么是巨大的火山喷发，要么是撞击地球的大型小行星导致地球大气形成一大片尘埃云层，这阻止了一定的阳光导致全球温度显著下降。然而，大型小行星的撞击可能产生突然的强闪光，而现存的那时的历史记录中没有提到过这样的闪光。然而那时遗留下来的一些亚洲历史纪录提到过与一次火山喷发相一致的巨大隆隆声。因此，那时的温度下降多半是火山喷发导致的。

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the cooling in the mid-sixth century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures though few historical records survive from that time. Furthermore, the author cites the surviving Asian historical records of the time, showing a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Careful scrutiny, the argument reveals several unproven assumptions.

First of all, the arguer fails to provide enough information to testify that there was not a large meteorite collision in the mid-sixth century. It is entirely possible that the related historical records have not been found or have been destroyed. Or perhaps, meteorite collision happened in the polar region, so the sudden bright flash of light could not been seen in Asia and Europe at that time. If so, these scenarios would serve to undermine the conclusion.

In addition, the argument is based on a dubitable assumption that the loud boom mentioned in the surviving Asian historical records of the time came from the volcanic eruption and the cooling at the time caused by the volcanic eruption. However, lacking specific evidences about the loud boom, any conclusion about it is dubious. This loud boom may be due to an earthquake. Even if the loud boom is the result of the eruption, there is no guarantee that the volcanic eruption should be the reason for the cooling. Therefore, the arguer would be too hasty to gain the ultimate.

Finally, the author assumes that either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding caused extremely cold temperatures. Even assuming meteorite collision was not  the reason, the author can not assure that volcanic eruption should be responsible for it. The author overlooks other possible cause for the cooling. Maybe energy of the sun suddenly decrease should be attributable to the suddenly decreasing temperature. Without considering such possibilities, the author can not conclude that the a volcanic eruption is the only reason of the cooling.

To sum up, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands, because evidences cited in the analysis can not support to what the author maintains strongly. To strengthen the argument, the author should provide more evidences and do research to rule out the meteorite collision or other possible reasons.

提纲:
ARGUMENT25 - The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％。改善Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。
1． 作者没有提供任何有关本市目前旅游设施的资料，这样我们就无法评估建一个高尔夫场等是必要还是浪费。
2． 引用隔壁的成功经验做论据，却不具备说服力。首先我们不知道隔壁的旅游收是否就比我们多，另外隔壁和我们的情况是否相同，他们的成功不必然出现在我们这里。
3． 作者说这是最好的方法也显然太过武断。论断没有提供资料以证明这种方法比其他的好，甚至没有告诉我们它能给我们带来多少增长，比我们以前的方法或是其他途径快在哪里。
ARGUMENT242 - The following appeared as an editorial in the student newspaper of Groveton College.
"To combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college and university students, these institutions should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton's, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. Groveton's honor code replaced an old-fashioned system in which students were closely monitored by teachers and an average of thirty cases of cheating per year were reported. The honor code has proven far more successful: in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey conducted by the Groveton honor council, a majority of students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without."
为解决最近上报的大学生作弊现象显著增加的问题，大学和学院应该采取和Groveton学院类似的诚信制度，该制度要求学生同意在学业中不作弊，并且当他们怀疑别人作弊的时候通知老师。Groveton的诚信制度代替了原有的学生被老师严密监视的老体制，在老体制中平均每年有30起作弊被上报。该制度被证明成的多：在它实施的第一年，学生上报了21起作弊；五年后，这一数值下降到了14起。而且，在最近一次由Groveton诚信委员会组织的调查中，大部分学生说有了诚信制度他们更加不太可能作弊。
1．   该制度要求学生同意在学业中不作弊，但并不是说学生不会在考试中作弊，没有谁会说自己要作弊；
2．   该制度要求学生当他们怀疑别人作弊的时候通知老师，可能会损害学生之间的关系；
3．   报告的作弊数从五年前的21降到现在14，并不说明问题。首先，没有说趋势一直在下降，有可能去年是30多起。其次有可能学生已经对这个失去耐心，没有人报告了。而老师却还依赖学生之间的监督。
4．   最近一次由Groveton诚信委员会组织的调查中，大部分学生说有了诚信制度他们更加不太可能作弊，可能学生本来就不想作弊。
ARGUMENT76 - The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin."

一组志愿者参加了一项关于消费者对新的Luxess面霜的反应的调查。在一个月的每个早晨，他们都用柔和香皂洗脸然后使用Luxess。一个月后，多数志愿者报告说他们皮肤的观感显著改。因此，这说明Luxess对于改面部皮肤状况确实有效。

1． 没有关于样本人群的特征描述，不能证明参加试验的人群具有普遍代表性。论者没有提供有关志愿者人数，及试验前的皮肤状况，这样不能保证结果科学。如果说志愿者人数少，且皮肤状况有同一问题，结果只能证明L对某种状态的皮肤有效，而对其他人无效。
2． 没有关于试验过程的具体描述。论断提供的有关描述中不能让人排除是其他因素使志愿者皮肤改变，比如是中性肥皂，比如试验时或试验的地点气候宜人，比如试验者可能还在使用其他护肤品。没有这样的资料，也不能说明L有效。
3． 没有对试验结果科学的描述。单凭志愿者自我报告感觉和看起来是非常不科学的。因为存在心理因素的影响，认为换了一种护肤品皮肤一定会有变化，或是对于不好的情况不愿意报告。所以论者应提供对志愿者皮肤改变结果科学的分析。不然无法证明志愿者的皮肤因为L有了改善。
ARGUMENT12 - The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."

在过去，Alta工厂的工伤事故比邻近的Panoply工厂多30％，Panoply的每班工作时间比我们的短一个小时。专家相信导致很多工伤事故的重要因素就是工人的疲劳和睡眠不足。因此，为减少Alta的工伤事故数量并提高生产数量，我们应该把我们的三个班次的工作时间每个都减少一小时，从而我们的雇员将有更充足的睡眠。

1． 没有资料表明我们的事故是因为睡眠不足和疲劳造成的，事故的发生有很多种原因，比如说技术问题，比如说操作违规等等。论据没有排除这些可能性。
2． 没有资料表明我们的工作时间超出了工人的承受能力，从而造成了工人疲劳。因为就算我们的工作事故是因为疲劳造成的，论者也没有提供资料以证明这种疲劳是因为我们工作时间过长而导致。因为完全有可能是工人的业余生活，比如过度地娱乐，家庭的负担，甚至有可能是第二职业的原故造成。这些论者都没有考虑到。
3． 论者引用与附近一家工厂的比较作为证据。但他却没有说明这家工厂是否与我们的工作性质相同。不同的工作发生事故的可能性肯定不同，比如建筑业和制药业就没有可比性。另外有没有可能这家工厂采取了比我们更好的保护措施？这也能有效的防止事故发生。

[ 本帖最后由 linshao 于 2007-7-27 06:52 编辑 ]

xiongnashiongUID：2359406

ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
研究历史上气候变化的学者发现在六世纪中叶，地球突然变冷了很多。尽管那个时期很少有历史记录被保存下来，一些在亚洲和欧洲所发现的记录提到了太阳变暗和极度的寒冷。要么是巨大的火山喷发，要么是撞击地球的大型小行星导致地球大气形成一大片尘埃云层，这阻止了一定的阳光导致全球温度显著下降。然而，大型小行星的撞击可能产生突然的强闪光，而现存的那时的历史记录中没有提到过这样的闪光。然而那时遗留下来的一些亚洲历史纪录提到过与一次火山喷发相一致的巨大隆隆声。因此，那时的温度下降多半是火山喷发导致的。

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the cooling in the mid-sixth century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures though few historical records survive from that time. Furthermore, the author cites the surviving Asian historical records of the time, showing a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Careful scrutiny, the argument reveals several unproven assumptions.

First of all, the arguer fails to provide enough information to testify that there was not a large meteorite collision in the mid-sixth century. It is entirely possible that the related historical records have not been found or have been destroyed. Or perhaps, meteorite collision happened in the polar region, so the sudden bright flash of light could not been seen in Asia and Europe at that time. If so, these scenarios would serve to undermine the conclusion.

In addition, the argument is based on a dubitable assumption that the loud boom mentioned in the surviving Asian historical records of the time came from the volcanic eruption and the cooling at the time caused by the volcanic eruption. However, lacking specific evidences about the loud boom, any conclusion about it is dubious. This loud boom may be due to an earthquake. Even if the loud boom is the result of the eruption, there is no guarantee that the volcanic eruption should be the reason for the cooling. Therefore, the arguer would be too hasty to gain the ultimate.

Finally, the author assumes that either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding caused extremely cold temperatures. Even assuming meteorite collision was not  the reason, the author can not assure that volcanic eruption should be responsible for it. The author overlooks other possible cause for the cooling. Maybe energy of the sun suddenly decrease should be attributable to the suddenly decreasing temperature. Without considering such possibilities, the author can not conclude that the a volcanic eruption is the only reason of the cooling.

To sum up, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands, because evidences cited in the analysis can not support to what the author maintains strongly. To strengthen the argument, the author should provide more evidences and do research to rule out the meteorite collision or other possible reasons.
结构和思路是一如既往的好 可是这篇的逻辑感觉比上一篇的话有所退步，反例也缺乏很强的说服力

[ 本帖最后由 xiongnashiong 于 2007-7-27 22:21 编辑 ]

zhangjing106UID：2157010

关于这篇A我无话可说，很好

linshaoUID：2338229

谢谢nashiong !只是这个主题不太好写！