argument200 『勇往直前小组』第八次作业linshao

linshaoUID：2338229

ARGUMENT200 - Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.
从牙医那里获得的统计数据表明在看牙医时男性昏厥的次数是女性的三倍。这一证据说明男性在接受牙科治疗时比女性更容易感到痛楚。因此，那些做广告来吸引患者的牙医应该定位于男性顾客，并同时强调他们的麻醉技术和他们的职员对于紧张和痛苦患者的敏感度。
In this argument, the author suggests that dentists should advertise mainly to male consumer and emphasize the effectiveness of both anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients. However, careful scrutiny of the evidence reveals some unfairly assumptions which lead the argument unconvincing.

In the first place, the author makes the conclusion based on an unfair assumption that more men faint in visiting dentist suggests men are more likely to be distressed about dental work. However, there is no direct medical evidence to demonstrate it. And the author has not inform us the ratio of men and women. Maybe women get fewer teeth illness than men, thus the three times can not be an exact data to indicate the author's conclusion.

Even granted the ratio of men fainting in visiting the dentist is higher than of women, we remain the doubt. Is faint only the way to express the distress? Maybe the women are more likely to cry or shed the tear when they face the horrible drill in the dentists' hands. So the evidence the author provides can only illustrate that men are more likely to be faint, but not more to be distressed. Without ruling out such alternatives, we can not be persuaded by the author's claim.

Furthermore, there is another fatal mistake in this argument. Even granted the men do afraid more seriously while visiting the dentist, the ad which only target on male consumer is unsound. By such ad policy, we may lose our female consumers for that they may misperceive that our dentists might be ineffective on treat women's teeth problem. Moreover, I am not doubt the ad will be ineffective on our business, however, if we concern too much on the sensitivity of our staff to nervous and pain of patients, will we scare the patients? We all know that almost none of people completely without the fear of visiting the dentist, however, they still come here, so what they care most probably not the pain. If so, our new ad policy might threaten them away. Maybe we can do some survey on it before taking any action.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To better support it, the author should provide the ratio of man and woman in patients; and the others expression of being distressed need to be clarified. Besides, the author should not only care about the male patient but for both sexes.

提纲:
ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."

若干因素表明KNOW电台应该把它的节目从摇滚乐转成连续的新闻节目。举例来说，我们覆盖范围内的老年人数量显著增加，而总的听众数量最近减少了。而且，我们地区音像店中录制音乐的销量下降。最后，邻近城市的连续新闻节目非常成，最近大选前组织的一次调查显示，本地居对于及时的政治报导很感兴趣。

1．没有证据表明没什么人听音乐节目了。老年观众上升和听众人数下降都不说明问题，因为我们不知道基数是多少。另外观众人数下降有可能跟近期节目做得不好有关系，电台应该努力把音乐节目质量提高，吸引音乐感兴趣的人。
2．音像店中录制音乐的销量下降不能说明没有听音乐了。音乐商店和电台不一样，一个花钱买片子，一个免费听歌曲。商店销售下降可能跟经济萧条购买力下降以及最近没有什么新唱片发行有关系，而这种情况可能正好会使听电台音乐的人增加。
3．没有证据表明滚动新闻节目好。没有证据说明新闻的观众比音乐的观众多，而且选举前情况特殊这种形势可能会很快改变。
ARGUMENT36 - The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."

20年前著名人类学家Field博士访问了Tertia岛，并从他的观察得出结论：Tertia的儿童是由整个村庄的人抚养长大的而不是由他们的双亲。然而，我最近对包含Tertia的一组岛屿上生活的儿童的采访显示，这些儿童的谈话中谈到他们双亲的时间要远多于谈到村庄中其他成年人的时间。这个研究证实了Field博士关于Tertia村庄文化的结论是错误的，因而这种以观察为中心的研究文化的方法是无效的。由于我在Tertia工作的研究生们所用的是以采访为中心的方式，他们将对那里以及其他岛屿文化的儿童抚养传统建立精确的多的了解。

1．论者没有提供任何确切的资料证明该村的孩子的确不由全村人抚养。他仅凭自己的猜测，而且也没有提供任何资料以说明他们采用的方法一定更准确。
2．论者说采访中发现这一地区的孩子谈论父母比谈论其他成年人更多，但这仅仅能说明孩子与父母的接触更多，比如他们有着天然的血缘关系，比如父母比村里其他成年人更关心自己的孩子，但这都不能排除孩子的抚养是由全村人进行，比如食物喂养，技能传授等等，这并不能说明孩子不由全村人抚养。另外论者也没有告诉我们他们是否在采访中采取了措施以保证结果准确，比如采访话题是否会引导孩子谈论父母。
3．就算旧观点是错误的，也不能由此得出他使用的研究方法是无效的。研究的正确与否，除了方法以外还受很多因素制约。比如研究者的能力等等。另外旧观点是在二十年前建立起来的，如果说该村的风俗改变了，则不能证明旧观点是错误的。
4．论者认为他们采用的采访为中心的研究方法肯定能对此问题得出更准确的理解。这与论断无关，而且论者没有提供资料证明采访中心研究适合该地区，更没有资料证明他们的研究结果是正确的。
ARGUMENT239 - The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton.
"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."

4个月前当邻近城市Williamsville实行了宵禁，规定18岁以下人员在晚上10点以后在公共场所闲逛和逗留被视为非法的时候，Williamsville在宵禁时间内的青少年犯罪下降了27％。在Williamsville的市镇广场，一个曾经因发生在这里的高犯罪率而导致市民的反感的地方，在宵禁实施以来没有一起犯罪被上报。因此，为降低日益增长的犯罪率，Dalton市也应该实行同样的宵禁。把青少年留在家中的宵禁肯定能控制青少年犯罪并保护未成年人不成为犯罪的牺牲品。

1．没有资料表明D城的青少年犯罪和多，所以实行宵禁有没有必要呢？
2．宵禁到底有没有效果呢？首先宵禁期间犯罪少了，不证明整个少了。其次D城的广场上没有犯罪，不证明别的地方没有了。第三没有报告犯罪，也可能是还没有发现。
ARGUMENT10 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."

Batavia的农业部门报告说全国奶牛农庄的数量比10年前增加了25％。然而就在同一时期，当地Excello Food Market牛奶的价格从每加仑$1.5上涨到了$3.0。为防止农场主在牛奶供应量明显增加的情况下获取过多的利润，Batavia的政府应限制牛奶的零售价。这种限价对于保证更低的牛奶价格和充足的供应是必需的。

1.没有信息表明牛奶受到了很高的利润，可能是别的原因导致牛奶价格升高，成本等

2.没有信息说明牛奶在过去十年的时间里产量增加了，可能是农场增加，但规模小了

3.其他因素：没有信息表明这样的限制和规定能够提供低价供应量充足的牛奶；此外，没有考虑到牛奶农场之间的竞争会导致牛奶价格的降低，以及是否有更好的办法

zhangjing106UID：2157010

In this argument, the author suggests that dentists should advertise mainly to male consumer and emphasize the effectiveness of both anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients. However, careful scrutiny of the evidence reveals some unfairly assumptions which lead the argument unconvincing.In the first place, the author makes the conclusion based on an unfair assumption that more men faint in visiting dentist suggests men are more likely to be distressed about dental work. However, there is no direct medical evidence to demonstrate it. And the author has not inform（ed） us the ratio of men and women. Maybe women get fewer teeth illness than men, thus the three times can not be an exact data to indicate the author's conclusion. Even granted the ratio of men fainting in visiting the dentist is higher than of women, we remain the doubt. Is faint only the way to express the distress? Maybe the women are more likely to cry or shed the tear when they face the horrible drill in the dentists' hands. So the evidence the author provides can only illustrate that men are more likely to be faint, but not more to be distressed. Without ruling out such alternatives, we can not be persuaded by the author's claim.Furthermore, there is another fatal mistake in this argument. Even granted the men do afraid more seriously while visiting the dentist, the ad which only target on male consumer is unsound. By such ad policy, we may lose our female consumers for that they may misperceive that our dentists might be ineffective on treat women's teeth problem. Moreover, I am not doubt the ad will be ineffective on our business, however, if we concern too much on the sensitivity of our staff to nervous and pain of patients, will we scare the patients? We all know that almost none of people completely without the fear of visiting the dentist, however, they still come here, so what they care most probably not the pain. If so, our new ad policy might threaten them away. Maybe we can do some survey on it before taking any action.（这一段的逻辑关系不太清晰）In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To better support it, the author should provide the ratio of man and woman in patients; and the others expression of being distressed need to be clarified. Besides, the author should not only care about the male patient but for both sexes.
说理没有问题，下一步应重点解决深入论述的方法和进一步理顺逻辑关系。

xiongnashiongUID：2359406

我觉得这篇ARGU的逻辑思路是这个样子
1.男人更容易distressed（数量的问题，这时你的第三段和第二段批驳的是同一个点应该放在一起）
2.强调 sensitiveness和麻醉可以有效缓解他们的这种忧虑（这个问题没有说）
3.针对男性的问题的广告可以吸引病人（这是你的第三点）
所以作者得到结论，我们应该针对男性的distressed问题，来做广告吸引病人，广告中强调
这也是我这样写我的ARGU的原因，这样可以避免同样的过多的一个观点，或者漏掉观点，我的问题是我的思路是上面的一 二，第三点是，针对他们问题的广告可以有效的吸引他们
实际上按我的思路只能得出  我们应该针对男性的distressed问题，来做广告吸引更多的男性病人，因为当时没有看过题目，第一次做，又限时，所以没有来得及。但是 个人觉得我的思路是绝对清晰的，可能和ZHANGJING说的一样，我没有清晰的表达我的想法 ，这是我下一步努力的方向，一起努力。
对你最大的建议就是， argument是思路的作品，批评的是作者的思路，单纯的找错误是不可取的，我们必须对应到，这个错误是用来证明作者思路的那个点的  个人意见。供你参考