issue184 [OB小组] 第16次作业 理论与数据

xiao8686UID: 2266881

TOPIC: ISSUE184 - "It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."
WORDS: 704          TIME: 00:44:56+15:00          DATE: 2007-7-28 22:07:03

In this issue, the author states that to theorize without data will be a tremendous mistake. I agree with the author insofar as sufficient data is necessary before establishing any theories. However, it is also almost impossible to theorize without any data.

To begin with, data is the foundation of any theory and they offer the very basic information to theorize. For example, to establish a chemistry theory, one has to conduct several experiments, observe the phenomena, then analyze the results and finally establish a theory. However, these experiments can hardly succeed without any data. Scientists need references to find the suitable material for the experiments, to ascertain the appropriate pressure and temperature, and to pay attention to the details that may lead to failures. Thereby, the establishment of a theory requires data for guidance. Even philosophy which is abstract needs data to theorize. Someone may claim that philosophic theories are usually meditated by philosophers. Thus, pondering instead of data is compulsory for philosophic theories. However, the meditation may be a very important role to establish a philosophic theory. The philosophers still need information to start the guess. For instance, spiritualists observe the world and then give an explanation which maybe called spiritualism and only have everything to do with our mental world. Nevertheless, the phenomena spiritualists interpret are actually the data they have before theorization. Though these data may not be the number, statistics we usually consider, they are the data in disguise that are the information one has to acquire before s/he theorize. Therefore, any establishments of theories need data. It is impossible to theorize without data.

However, to theorize, one must have sufficient data, otherwise, the theory could turn to be an utter failure, being useless to the descents or causing severe problems. For one thing, without adequate amount of data, a theory can possibly be incomplete considering there may be some facets it neglects or misses out. In that case, after the theory is published, it can not stand the tests of time, and finally be deserted by people. For another, the theory without sufficient data may bring along serious troubles. Once these deficient theories were used by others for further researches, they may generate a series of failure. For some dangerous experiments which involve the nuclear radicalization or deadly virus, the deficient theory could result in mass fatality or fatal epidemic disease. These theories built under the circumstance of lacking sufficient data are of no avail but waste of resources and energy. What’s worse, they may initiate several sequential failure or catastrophes.

Moreover, one can not promise the theory s/he establishes is flawless. We are limited by our finite knowledge and experiences. For scientific theories, one theory may be perfect in one era but full of errors in another era. Take the Newton’s law for instance. It once can perfectly explain everything concerning motions in 19th century while it is entirely inapplicable in quantum-fields which are commonly studied in 20th century. Notwithstanding, we can not denial the success and development Newton’s law bring to the human society. Without this fundamental rule, other theory will not be able to be established. And when Newton’s law is incapable in explaining certain facts, new theory will be established. That is the process of how all the scientific theories applied as well as the progress of how science is able to advance and human being are able to approach closer to the ultimate truth. For artistic theories, many theories are different merely because people hold different beliefs and perspectives. They may even conflict with each other like materialism and spiritualism. But neither of them is wrong. Thereby, artistic theories concerns about individual notions and faiths instead of the closeness to the truth. In sum, no theory is absolutely correct. Almost every scientific theory is accurate temporarily and will be modified or supplemented by further ones. Artistic theories are generally representatives of diverse perspectives which should not be assessed by right or wrong.

In conclusion, no theory can be established without any data since data are the foundation it is built on. And sufficient data are necessary for any useful theory. Though we try to make a theory flawless, it is unattainable in fact.

phillipsareaUID: 2318537

In this issue, the author states that to theorize without data will be a tremendous mistake. I agree with the author insofar as sufficient data is necessary before establishing any theories. However, it is also almost impossible to theorize without any data.(这两句你再看看,应该是有问题,说的一个意思为什么however?)

To begin with, data is the foundation of any theory and they offer the very basic information to theorize. For example, to establish a chemistry theory, one has to conduct several experiments, observe the phenomena, then analyze the results and finally establish a theory. However, these experiments can hardly succeed without any data. Scientists need references to find the suitable material for the experiments, to ascertain the appropriate pressure and temperature, and to pay attention to the details that may lead to failures. Thereby, the establishment of a theory requires data for guidance. Even philosophy which is abstract needs data to theorize. Someone may claim that philosophic theories are usually meditated by philosophers. Thus, pondering instead of data is compulsory for philosophic theories. However, the meditation may be a very important step to establish a philosophic theory. The philosophers still need information to start the guess. For instance, spiritualists observe the world and then give an explanation which maybe called spiritualism and only have everything to do with our mental world. Nevertheless, the phenomena spiritualists interpret are actually the data they have before theorization. Though these data may not be the number, statistics we usually consider, they are the data in disguise that are the information one has to acquire before s/he theorize. Therefore, any establishments of theories need data. It is impossible to theorize without data.(这个例子难度很大.扯回主题很精彩)

However(这段与上段,应该是个进一层的关系吧), to theorize, one must have sufficient data, otherwise, the theory could turn to be an utter failure, being useless to the descents or causing severe problems. For one thing, without adequate amount of data, a theory can possibly be incomplete considering there may be some facets it neglects or misses out. In that case, after the theory is published, it can not stand the tests of time, and finally be deserted by people. For another, the theory without sufficient data may bring along serious troubles. Once these deficient theories were used by others for further researches, they may generate a series of failure. For some dangerous experiments which involve the nuclear radicalization or deadly virus, the deficient theory could result in mass fatality or fatal epidemic disease. These theories built under the circumstance of lacking sufficient data are of no avail but waste of resources and energy. What’s worse, they may initiate several sequential failure or catastrophes.(例子和论证结合的很好,没有互相孤立,要好好学习)

Moreover, one can not promise the theory s/he establishes is flawless. We are limited by our finite knowledge and experiences. For scientific theories, one theory may be perfect in one era but full of errors in another era. Take the Newton’s law for instance. It once can perfectly explain everything concerning motions in 19th century while it is entirely inapplicable in quantum-fields which are commonly studied in 20th century. Notwithstanding, we can not denial the success and development Newton’s law bring to the human society. Without this fundamental rule, other theory will not be able to be established. And when Newton’s law is incapable in explaining certain facts, new theory will be established. That is the process of how all the scientific theories applied as well as the progress of how science is able to advance and human being are able to approach closer to the ultimate truth. For artistic theories, many theories are different merely because people hold different beliefs and perspectives. They may even conflict with each other like materialism and spiritualism. But neither of them is wrong. Thereby, artistic theories concerns about individual notions and faiths instead of the closeness to the truth. In sum, no theory is absolutely correct. Almost every scientific theory is accurate temporarily and will be modified or supplemented by further ones. Artistic theories are generally representatives of diverse perspectives which should not be assessed by right or wrong.(这段好像走题走远了,似忽花这么大的篇幅,说得东西只是nothing's perfect,而与theorize before one has data一点关系也没有呀...跟上一段也没有什么关系似的)

In conclusion, no theory can be established without any data since data are the foundation it is built on. And sufficient data are necessary for any useful theory. Though we try to make a theory flawless, it is unattainable in fact.

ldongxpUID: 2311083

In this issue, the author states that to theorize without data will be a tremendous mistake. I agree with the author insofar as sufficient data is necessary before establishing any theories. However, it is also almost impossible to theorize without any data.

To begin with, data is the foundation of any theory and they offer the very basic information to theorize. For example, to establish a chemistry theory, one has to conduct several experiments, observe the phenomena, then analyze the results and finally establish a theory. However, these experiments can hardly succeed without any data. Scientists need references to find the suitable material for the experiments, to ascertain the appropriate pressure and temperature, and to pay attention to the details that may lead to failures. Thereby, the establishment of a theory requires data for guidance. Even philosophy which is abstract needs data to theorize. Someone may claim that philosophic theories are usually meditated by philosophers. Thus, pondering instead of data is compulsory for philosophic theories. However, the meditation may be a very important role to establish a philosophic theory. The philosophers still need information to start the guess. For instance, spiritualists observe the world and then give an explanation which maybe called spiritualism and only have everything to do with our mental world. Nevertheless, the phenomena spiritualists interpret are actually the data they have before theorization. Though these data may not be the number, statistics we usually consider, they are the data in disguise that are the information one has to acquire before s/he theorize. Therefore, any establishments of theories need data. It is impossible to theorize without data.

However, to theorize, one must have sufficient data, otherwise, the theory could turn to be an utter failure, being useless to the descents or causing severe problems. For one thing, without adequate amount of data, a theory can possibly be incomplete considering there may be some facets it neglects or misses out. In that case, after the theory is published, it can not stand the tests of time, and finally be deserted by people. For another, the theory without sufficient data may bring along serious troubles. Once these deficient theories were used by others for further researches, they may generate a series of failure. For some dangerous experiments which involve the nuclear radicalization or deadly virus, the deficient theory could result in mass fatality or fatal epidemic disease. [挑剔一点来说，这个例子说的不清楚怎么缺数据，可以考虑在表述上侧重如何有缺陷，因而导致后果] These theories built under the circumstance of lacking sufficient data are of no avail but waste of resources and energy. What’s worse, they may initiate several sequential failure or catastrophes.

Moreover, one can not promise the theory s/he establishes is flawless. [很辩证的看法，不错，好像开头没有提这点噢] We are limited by our finite knowledge and experiences. For scientific theories, one theory may be perfect in one era but full of errors in another era. Take the Newton’s law for instance. It once can perfectly explain everything concerning motions in 19th century while it is entirely inapplicable in quantum-fields which are commonly studied in 20th century. Notwithstanding, we can not denial [?] the success and development Newton’s law bring to the human society. Without this fundamental rule, other theory will not be able to be established. And when Newton’s law is incapable in explaining certain facts, new theory will be established. That is the process of how all the scientific theories applied as well as the progress of how science is able to advance and human being are able to approach closer to the ultimate truth. [nice！] For artistic theories, many theories are different merely because people hold different beliefs and perspectives. They may even conflict with each other like materialism and spiritualism. [算哲学而不是艺术吧？] But neither of them is wrong. Thereby, artistic theories concerns about individual notions and faiths instead of the closeness to the truth. In sum, no theory is absolutely correct. Almost every scientific theory is accurate temporarily and will be modified or supplemented by further ones. Artistic theories are generally representatives of diverse perspectives which should not be assessed by right or wrong.

In conclusion, no theory can be established without any data since data are the foundation it is built on. And sufficient data are necessary for any useful theory. Though we try to make a theory flawless, it is unattainable in fact.