argument48 『勇往直前小组』第九次作业linshao

linshaoUID：2338229

ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."

20年前，Corpora的市民有一半都达到了那时由国家健身顾问委员会所定义的充分的健康标准。今天，委员会指出所有市民只有四分之一的市民足够健康，并指出长时间的使用电脑可能是原因。但是由于在Corpora电脑拥有量最高的地区也是总体健康水平最高的地区，显然使用电脑并没有导致市民体质的下降。相反，今年用于健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常，这表明最近经济的衰退最可能是原因，当经济复苏了健康水平也会随之提高。

In this argument, the arguer claims that the decline of the fitness levels dues to the ebb of the economy and predicts that the health levels will improve with the revival of the economy. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that this year's expenditures on fitness-related products are unusually low. In addition, the argument negates the deduction that spending too much time using computers causes the decline. However, the argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.

First of all, the arguer fails to provide sufficient evidence to prove that spending too much time using computers is not the reason. The fact that where levels of computer ownership are highest, there overall fitness levels are highest too can not be cited to testify that the fitness is independent of the computer, because that computer ownership is the very different concept from using computer. For instance, a school with computer labs can be a region with high computer ownership, but its students are not those using computer longest compared with people who have their own computers. In order to make the argument convincing, the author should tell us how many hours the citizens in Corpora spend on computers and compared to other regions.

Moreover, the causal relationship between the economy and fitness level is quite doubtful.
The fact that the arguer provides to support his conclusion is lower expenditures on fitness-related products. However it’s unfounded. The ebb of the economy is not the only reason of low expenditures. Perhaps the quality of those products and services is not as good as twenty years ago, people don’t want to waste their money on them. Or the economy is flourishing, people are busier and spend more money on other entertainment, meanwhile, ignoring their fitness. Even if the low expenditures on fitness-related products due to the ebb of the economy, we can’t conclude that the fitness-related products can make people fitness. Since the health requires proper diet, sufficient sleep and other factors as well. Maybe under the huge social pressure, the fitness-related products and services would cut no ice. Thus, fitness levels will not surely associate with economy.

In sum, the argument lacks credibility because the evidence cites in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintain. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the relationship between the fitness and the economy.

提纲：
ARGUMENT29 - When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.

当Ida McAllister在四年前竞选Lake City市的市长的时候，她失败了，甚至未能赢得30％的选票。但从那以后，McAllister公开了她对环境事业的支持。因而，如果她宣布她将会让Lake City所有公园禁止汽车通行的话将会是十分明智的，这里有Plainsville前市长Alecia Yu的先例。在一小群关注该问题的市的建议下，Yu市长在Plainsville的所有公园都禁止汽车通行，因而被称赞为解决了Plainsville的污染问题和提高了生活质量。这一行动对于Lake City的市民将会有极大吸引力，这些市民大部分参加了社区循环再生项目，也会保证McAllister在这次市长竞选中获得成。

1．论者没有提供任何证据以表明本城的居民不希望公园对汽车开放，也没有提供任何资料表明本城的汽车污染和空气污染受到了居民的关注。这都使得本城的居民并不一定欢迎这样的做法。

2．引用另一城的前任市长的经验，并说明她因此而被称赞改善了当地的生活质量。但首先论据没有提供资料说两市在空气、环境等问题上有何共同点，他们的经验是否值得本市借鉴。如果说当地的污染问题至今仍比本市差，本市居民是不太可能像当地那样拥护这样的措施的。另外论断那位市长是在一部分居民的建议下做的，做之前已经得到了居民的支持，而McAllister如果在不知道居民意向时冒然宣布，并不一定能像前人那样受到拥护。

3．本城人大多数参与社区的垃圾工程，论者认为这表明他们也关心环境问题。但这显然并不能证明这些参与垃圾工程的人，肯定会支持公园不对汽车开放。因为这是两个截然不同的问题，人们的态度不一定必然相同。

4．市长竞选涉及问题很多，市民也不会只看环境一项，他们还会关心候选人是否有办法诸如降低犯罪率，改善财政情况等等。认为McAllister能仅凭一项计划而赢得竞选没有道理。

ARGUMENT166 - The following appeared in a local newspaper.
"People should not be misled by the advertising competition between Coldex and Cold-Away, both popular over-the-counter cold medications that anyone can purchase without a doctor's prescription. Each brand is accusing the other of causing some well-known, unwanted side effect: Coldex is known to contribute to existing high blood pressure and Cold-Away is known to cause drowsiness. But the choice should be clear for most health-conscious people: Cold-Away has been on the market for much longer and is used by more hospitals than is Coldex. Clearly, Cold-Away is more effective."
人们不应该被任何人不用医生处方就可以买到的OTC药品Coldex和Cold-Away之间的广告战所误导。每个牌子都指责另一种药会导致某种众所周知的不良副作用：Coldex导致血压升高而Cold-Away导致嗜睡。但对于多数关心健康的人来说选择是明显的：Cold-Away比Coldex上市时间更长而且被更多的医院所使用。显然，Cold-Away效果更好。
1．没有直接证据证明CA更有效，而时间长，用得多不一定代表它就好。
2．C是新产品，所以在市场上时间短。但它完全有可能用更好更新的技术成果，以及吸取CA的经验，从而比CA更有疗效。
3．更多医院用不能说明好。首先可能是因为商业等其他原因使得医院用CA。其次，既然该种药品不需要医生建议可以柜台买，说明医生的专业知识并不是最好的建议。
C的负作用在大多数人看来可能比较严重，所以限制了它的广泛使用。但是对于治疗感冒它还是有可能比CA有效，所以尤其对于没有高血压危险的人来说，CA不一定比C更有效.

ARGUMENT59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."

根据现有的医疗记录，过去300年中最严重的六次世界范围的流感大流行分别发生于1729，1830，1918，1957和1977。这些都是太阳黑子活动剧烈的年份，即：地球所接收的太阳能比平常年份多的多。因此，那些特别易患流感的人群应该避免长时间暴露于日光下。

1．论者没有为此提供任何资料表明长时间晒太阳会使人容易感冒。

2．这次流感年里是否有其它原因造成了流感，黑子活动是否会带其他的气候变化，比如气温易波动。并不是因为能量多就造成。过去300年里是否只有这六年太阳斑活跃，是否还有活跃的年份但没有发生流感。

3．如果晒太阳会使人容易感冒，是否就应该避免。医生经常建议多晒太阳对身体有利，是否能有办法调和使这两个矛盾的。

ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由助力车和行人引发的事故，Balmer Island镇委应把本岛六个助力车和自行车出租公司的助力车出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。通过限制出租数量，市委肯定能够实现助力车事故减少50％的目标，就像去年邻岛Torseau镇委实施了类似的对于助力车出租的限制后所达到的那样。

1．论者没有提供任何有关镇里事故的资料，甚至没有说镇里有没有这样的事故，数量是多少，造成的危害是什么。因为不像汽车，这种事故一般都不会严重，而从论断中我们看不到有这样做的必要。.

2．出事故的车不一定都是是租来的车，如果说镇里的事故需要解决，也不能只简单地限制租车数量。镇里有多少这种车，出事故的有多少是租来的车，这此论断都没提供。如果说事故主要是自己的车，那么这种做法会影响公司利润，会引来他们不满。

3．论者认为6家租车公司每天的租车量都超过了30，但这也没被论断所保证。论断没有提供目前实际每家的租车数量，如果说目前每家的租车数还不足30，那么就算真有事故，也不可能因此而有所减少。

4．Torseau岛的成功并不必然出现在这里。论据没有提供任何有关两地面临的问题是否相同，也没有提供他们的事故与我们相比是多是少。如果说降低50%以后他们的事故仍比我们多，显然就不具备可借鉴。

sweetbettyUID：2359460

In this argument, the arguer claims that the decline of the fitness levels dues to the ebb of the economy and predicts that the health levels will improve with the revival of the economy. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that this year's expenditures on fitness-related products are unusually low. In addition, the argument negates the deduction that spending too much time using computers causes the decline. However, the argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.
First of all, the arguer fails to provide sufficient evidence to prove that spending too much time using computers is not the reason. The fact that where levels of computer ownership are highest, there overall fitness levels are highest too can not be cited to testify that the fitness is independent of the computer, because that computer ownership is the very different concept from using computer. For instance, a school with computer labs can be a region with high computer ownership, but its students are not those using computer longest compared with people who have their own computers. In order to make the argument convincing, the author should tell us how many hours the citizens in Corpora spend on computers and compared to other regions.


Moreover, the causal relationship between the economy and fitness level is quite doubtful.
The fact that the arguer provides to support his conclusion is lower expenditures on fitness-related products. However it’s unfounded. The ebb of the economy is not the only reason of low expenditures. Perhaps the quality of those products and services is not as good as twenty years ago, people don’t want to waste their money on them. Or the economy is flourishing, people are busier and spend more money on other entertainment, meanwhile, ignoring their fitness. Even if the low expenditures on fitness-related products due to the ebb of the economy, we can’t conclude that the fitness-related products can make people fitness. Since the health requires proper diet, sufficient sleep and other factors as well. Maybe under the huge social pressure, the fitness-related products and services would cut no ice. Thus, fitness levels will not surely associate with economy.

In sum, the argument lacks credibility because the evidence cites in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintain. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the relationship between the fitness and the economy.

简单看了下你写得argument， 我觉得论证得很不错， 但是我觉得比如第2点 你有两层意思 以even if 为分界 那么为什么不分成三段写呢 这样层次会更加清晰不是吗？

xiongnashiongUID：2359406

argument48 『勇往直前小组』第九次作业linshao
ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
20年前，Corpora的市民有一半都达到了那时由国家健身顾问委员会所定义的充分的健康标准。今天，委员会指出所有市民只有四分之一的市民足够健康，并指出长时间的使用电脑可能是原因。但是由于在Corpora电脑拥有量最高的地区也是总体健康水平最高的地区，显然使用电脑并没有导致市民体质的下降。相反，今年用于健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常，这表明最近经济的衰退最可能是原因，当经济复苏了健康水平也会随之提高。

In this argument, the arguer claims that the decline of the fitness levels dues to the ebb of the economy and predicts that the health levels will improve with the revival of the economy. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that this year's expenditures on fitness-related products are unusually low. In addition, the argument negates the deduction that spending too much time using computers causes the decline. However, the argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.
First of all, the arguer fails to provide sufficient evidence to prove that spending too much time using computers is not the reason. The fact that where levels of computer ownership are highest, there overall fitness levels are highest too can not be cited to testify that the fitness is independent of the computer, because that computer ownership is the very different concept from using computer. For instance, a school with computer labs can be a region with high computer ownership, but its students are not those using computer longest compared with people who have their own computers. In order to make the argument convincing, the author should tell us how many hours the citizens in Corpora spend on computers and compared to other regions.


Moreover, the causal relationship between the economy and fitness level is quite doubtful.
The fact that the arguer provides to support his conclusion is lower expenditures on fitness-related products. However it’s unfounded. The ebb of the economy is not the only reason of low expenditures. Perhaps the quality of those products and services is not as good as twenty years ago, people don’t want to waste their money on them. Or the economy is flourishing, people are busier and spend more money on other entertainment, meanwhile, ignoring their fitness. Even if the low expenditures on fitness-related products due to the ebb of the economy, we can’t conclude that the fitness-related products can make people fitness. Since the health requires proper diet, sufficient sleep and other factors as well. Maybe under the huge social pressure, the fitness-related products and services would cut no ice. Thus, fitness levels will not surely associate with economy.（我也觉得这个地方分层写会更好）

In sum, the argument lacks credibility because the evidence cites in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintain. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the relationship between the fitness and the economy.
主要的都没有问题了，我现在开始也开始学习顺序思维的写作办法，希望得到你的猛拍哦